PeakOil is You
And they call it progress.
Re: And they call it progress.
by Loki » Mon 04 Jul 2016, 20:59:08
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'E')xactly. There's a whole wide range in the middle between current disposable power-tools and doing everything by hand. Something closer to how things were in maybe the 1950s when fix-it shops were commonplace. Greer's idea of appropriate tech is much farther below what most people would tolerate as far as the amount of manual labor involved, and yet in these sorts of threads, there is this cloud of culture-war or personal judgment that enters into the mix, that today people are too soft/lazy/dumb. It's part of the whole American frontier spirit of rugged individualism, I think, to cast aspersions on others this way.
More doomer strawmen....
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')magine, for a moment, that an industrial nation were to downshift its technological infrastructure to roughly what it was in 1950. That would involve a drastic decrease in energy consumption per capita, both directly—people used a lot less energy of all kinds in 1950—and indirectly—goods and services took much less energy to produce then, too. It would involve equally sharp decreases in the per capita consumption of most resources. It would also involve a sharp increase in jobs for the working classes—a great many things currently done by robots were done by human beings in those days, and so there were a great many more paychecks going out of a Friday to pay for the goods and services that ordinary consumers buy....
That’s the thing about progress; all the word means is “continued movement in the same direction.” If the direction was a bad idea to start with, or if it’s passed the point at which it still made sense, continuing to trudge blindly onward into the gathering dark may not be the best idea in the world. Break out of that mental straitjacket, and the range of possible futures broadens out immeasurably.
It may be, for example, that technological regression to the level of 1950 turns out to be impossible to maintain over the long term. If the technologies of 1920 can be supported on the modest energy supply we can count on getting from renewable sources, for example, something like a 1920 technological suite might be maintained over the long term, without further regression. It might turn out instead that something like the solar steampower I mentioned earlier, an ecotechnic equivalent of 1880 technology, might be the most complex technology that can be supported on a renewable basis. It might be the case, for that matter, that something like the technological infrastructure the United States had in 1820, with windmills and water wheels as the prime movers of industry, canalboats as the core domestic transport technology, and most of the population working on small family farms to support very modest towns and cities, is the fallback level that can be sustained indefinitely.
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/ ... rward.html
Greer's idea of "technological regression" is based on what can be sustained over the long term with a given population and resource base. He's not an ideologue on the subject, advising everyone to go back to flint knapping or whatever strawman you have in mind.
A garden will make your rations go further.
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Re: And they call it progress.
by ennui2 » Mon 04 Jul 2016, 21:44:50
I agree with Greer in a lot of respects. Some of his prescriptions are really due to his experiences earlier in life during the oil crisis during the Carter years. He talks about this at length. He got into the appropriate tech movement back then and after Reagan brought back Morning in America again he has tried to hold onto its relevance. That's not straw-man. That's his background and its colors his analysis and the self-help wisdom he dishes out on his blog.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: And they call it progress.
by Loki » Tue 05 Jul 2016, 01:06:44
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I') agree with Greer in a lot of respects. Some of his prescriptions are really due to his experiences earlier in life during the oil crisis during the Carter years. He talks about this at length. He got into the appropriate tech movement back then and after Reagan brought back Morning in America again he has tried to hold onto its relevance. That's not straw-man. That's his background and its colors his analysis and the self-help wisdom he dishes out on his blog.
Perhaps I misunderstood. Greer does not describe a future, at least not within the lifetime of anyone alive today, where humanity returns to preindustrial technology. He is very much a child of the '70s, minus the solar panels, which he doesn't care for. Even Kunstler, with his "world made by hand," mostly talks about 19th century level technology, which is still mostly industrial age tech.
I'm of mixed feelings when it comes to what level of technology is desirable. I don't know that we can pick a decade and shoot for that. A good shade tree mechanic could fix pretty much anything that could go wrong on a 1950s car, but modern cars are much more efficient and last longer without major repair. I like computers and the internet as much as the next guy, maybe more, but I don't think my toaster needs to be connected to the web.
To go back to the woodworking example, I've recently taken up hand tool woodworking. My main jack plane was made around 1915. I have a wooden rabbet plane made around the 1870s. I find hand tools much more relaxing than power tools. I have a table saw that I still use on occasion, but I can't stand the thing and would eventually like to develop my hand saw skills so I don't need the table saw any more.
I doubt very much my table saw will still be in use in 100 years, it'll likely be taking up space in a landfill. Something like brushes can be easily and cheaply replaced, but the machine is not designed to last for decades (too many plastic parts). The jack plane, on the other hand, is a simple beast. It's quite possible someone will be using it in 100 years.
But one of these days I'll probably buy a jointer and thickness planer. Back in the 19th century jointing and thicknessing was mostly done by apprentices. Doing all the dimensioning by hand by myself gets tedious and really drags out projects.
I don't have a definitive idea as to what "appropriate technology" should be, but I do think we've swung too far in the direction of hypercomplexity, throw-away goods, and dependency on global supply chains.
A garden will make your rations go further.
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Re: And they call it progress.
by ennui2 » Tue 05 Jul 2016, 09:38:17
If we're going to de-industrialize eventually, the question is, what kind of lifestyle do you want to endorse? It's going to go through this slow process of losing and losing technology, things breaking and not being fixable, not being able to manufacture replacements. Nevertheless, certain steps along the way might last a long time, so long that most of us may never witness the world having to revert back to human-power for key tasks like grinding grain or knitting. Look at the old 60 year old cars still running in Cuba, for instance. Nothing lasts forever. I think sometimes doomers want to kind of look ahead of the curve even if it winds up not having any practical benefit. I have a hand grain mill somewhere in storage from when I thought I'd have to live like the Dervaes in Pasadena. I once collected acorns thinking I'd need to learn how to shell and leach the tannins out of them to get enough carbs to survive. Some of the extreme survivalist and low-tech scenarios are going a little far. It didn't seem extreme back then but it does now.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: And they call it progress.
by Newfie » Tue 05 Jul 2016, 10:37:03
Who knows how far we will unwind and how long it will take us to claw back.
I agree that globalism has gotten out of hand and that folks don't have a clue how to fix something. Hell, I heard a TED Talk on the sharing economy where the lady stated that electric drill are used somethings g like 1.5 times IN THEIR LIFE TIME. if the population crashes fast enough we will have tons of spare parts. Always trying to look on the bright side!
I agree that globalism has gotten out of hand and that folks don't have a clue how to fix something. Hell, I heard a TED Talk on the sharing economy where the lady stated that electric drill are used somethings g like 1.5 times IN THEIR LIFE TIME. if the population crashes fast enough we will have tons of spare parts. Always trying to look on the bright side!
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Re: And they call it progress.
by Newfie » Tue 05 Jul 2016, 17:12:54
To an extent. What is embedded in a cell phone?
And what has already been lost is a way to retreat gracefully. We CAN still plow a field with a horse. We can NOT feed 330 million doing so. It would take a couple of generations to revert to that Technology.
Things that require large and quality timber even longer, the forests have been cut.
And what has already been lost is a way to retreat gracefully. We CAN still plow a field with a horse. We can NOT feed 330 million doing so. It would take a couple of generations to revert to that Technology.
Things that require large and quality timber even longer, the forests have been cut.
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Re: And they call it progress.
by Lore » Tue 05 Jul 2016, 19:20:52
Earth 2150, lots of rubble to pick over.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: And they call it progress.
by Lore » Tue 05 Jul 2016, 19:39:51
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'E')arth 2150, lots of rubble to pick over.
Is that a tidal wave or just sea-level rise? It looks a lot like the Hand of God has come down to crush upon that Evil and Corrupt American Empire. God spare us Amen, Lore. Are your religious?
You can probably pick your poison with that one.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Lore - Fission
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