[ennui2]

Back to the topic.

The answer is, if not passed, then delayed. The low price is not a function of demand-destruction as some keep harping on.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/201 ... 1751b51ea6

It's STILL a glut.

[Zarquon]

Here's a hypothetical one:

Assume that tomorrow morning, 9 AM, the Pope, George Clooney, the chairman of XOM and Prince Abdullah Ibn Crude hold a press conference. And they all state that today is The Day. The final peak of conventional crude production, globally. LTO and tar sands might dampen the blow for another few years, but basically from now on it's 5% decline p.a. And EIA, IEA, CIA, FOX, FIFA, you name it, they all agree. The data allows no other conclusion - OPO (Official Peak Oil) has arrived!

What would actually change within the next months, year, five years? What major developments and event(s) would happen that are *not happening already*, at least to some degree?

Would refiners begin paying an OPO-premium for crude by Tuesday? And why should they?

Would investors dump Big (or small) Oil stocks immediately, despite the fact that they still have product to sell and profits to make? And even if so, wouldn't that just mean that by 2017 we'd see XOMBP, ChevronShell and TotalENI being traded? Which would have little effect on NOCs and their 80%+ market share anyway.

Would AirlinePilot lose his job, even with tits like these?

Would we really begin to build sailing container ships in 2018?

Would the US Congress... ok, they'd probably hyperventilate for a month and then spend a $trillion do the dumbest things they could possible do, half of which would have absolutely no effect and the other half would make things even worse. Let's not speculate about that.

But let's say EV sales double overnight. Huge for Tesla, but overall? Still insignificant.

Would most people, the majority of which probably still haven't heard about PO, even take notice?

Would 5-year oil futures suddenly trade for $200 per barrel, pulling spot prices up with them?

What would happen if tomorrow were OPO-Day? Would it really matter that much?

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')oil traders would notice and so oil futures would suddenly trade at $200 (why not?) or more!

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'r')ight zarquon, few would notice. But you are correct, oil traders would notice and so oil futures would suddenly trade at $200 (why not?) or more!. On word that current production will fall, there is no glut. (such is the nature of peak oil) The stock market would rally. Oil company valuations would soar. They'd be a flurry of activity. whoopee!

Oil-exporting nations would rally to the cause and pump more oil. But wait. No more oil to pump. So oil-exporting nations would sell their current production for $200/barrel. Domestic oil companies would follow suit and sell their oil for $200/barrel. Immediately. But who would buy oil at that price? Maybe rich Americans? Sure. We would buy the oil.

We'd buy for a while. Until $5.00 gas hurt pump sales. Then refinery sales. you get it. Then what? Need oil to commute. Must have gasoline. No EV. Can't afford gasoline. Can't rideshare. (not any early adapter) Plus I have tools. Baby on board. A dog. Wet. Smelly. Gotta drive. Can't get to my suckass job a Walmart. need car. what to do?

Rationing. Bad big gumint. Some steal oil. Others steal oil nations. Oh boy! Big Trouble in little china.

[sparky]

.
Oil traders care nothing for the price of oil per see
they care about the differential between Buy / Sell orders
any good trader can make money as long as the oil price move , it doesn't matter if it's up or down
as long as there is movement on the contract time line ,it's just a question of having the right long or short position.

should there be an international cartel of exporters fixing the price , then a lot of traders would go out of business

[onlooker]

Timely article about the status of our principal energy source Oil.
Notice the part where it states that within 10 years the Oil Industry will have disintegrated. So then are we at the point where we are scrapping the bottom of the barrel? http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.ca/2016 ... l?spref=fb

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'T')imely article about the status of our principal energy source Oil.
Notice the part where it states that within 10 years the Oil Industry will have disintegrated. So then are we at the point where we are scrapping the bottom of the barrel? http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.ca/2016 ... l?spref=fb

[ennui2]

onlooker has a hard time vetting sources for his "reports". I've called him on this many times but he doesn't seem to understand that if the authority you are appealing to eat-drinks-and-pisses doom that his or her viewpoint might be a little suspect. A headline story from Newsweek would carry a lot more weight.

[onlooker]

Ennui, by now surely you must realize that the mainstream media is exaggerating and even lying about certain things. You seem part of the reason I am a doomer is because I am not being duped by the narrative from official sources that keeps repeating that all is well. You prefer Ennui, to live in the world that you were taught exists and in fact so many people now days are realizing that the whole system is rotten and it has been and is spewing false and misleading information. But of course all that is just tinfoil. Some prefer to see the truth and others to live in their delusions.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'E')nnui, by now surely you must realize that the mainstream media is exaggerating and even lying about certain things.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') have faith in the market and assume price is the signal between supply and demand

[ROCKMAN]

Looker - "What most people miss is that the rapid end of the Oil Age began in 2012 and will be over within some 10 years. To the best of my knowledge, the most advanced material in this matter is the thermodynamic analysis of the oil industry taken as a whole system (OI) produced by The Hill's Group (THG) over the last two years or so." Absolutely rediculous. So the world is currently producing over 90 million bopd and will be producing an insignificant golems in 10 years. Perhaps the writer has a very different idea of what a "rapid end of the Oil Age" implies compared to the rest of us here

Do you have any credible model which projects the near end of oil production in the next 10 years?

[onlooker]

I would not presume to argue these detailed points of Peak Oil with you Rockman considering your acumen on the subject and also Pstarr. However, as Pstarr is linking this and points out how interconnected the whole system is, it certainly leave open the room for catastrophic quick collapse. It is simply logical in accordance with the close interconnections. I always refer to the book by Joseph Tainter "The Collapse of Complex Societies" and other info in which complex systems reach boundaries and then catastrophically and abruptly phase change into another or inferior condition. This is also evident in Nature. Again, note what Pstarr stated about how Oil is truly the lifeblood of the Economy. You, yourself Rock, have coined it the Peak Oil dynamic. So the Economy and Oil can develop a reinforcing negative feedback loop that will accelerate tremendously a downward spiral.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'D')o you have any credible model which projects the near end of oil production in the next 10 years?

[ennui2]

The volcano thing is an ANALOGY. It's not a model. The other one is doomer-porn from a doomer that lives, drinks, and pisses doom. Therefore not a good appeal to authority.