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Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 19 Jun 2016, 10:46:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')I meant scared of having a fair and serious debate. Scared, as in afraid of loosing the argument.


Yes, as ennui said, when you project, and run from every objective comment because you are afraid of losing the argument, it just becomes more obvious that you CAN'T argue, you just repeat yourself over and over.

It is a classic tell of those who either don't understand what they are talking about (in your case, 3 different particular specialties, as I've mentioned) or lack any objectivity and are selling something.

Are you helping to sell or advertise this Hill report? Or are you them?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 19 Jun 2016, 11:39:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I') don't think you can really separate AGW from PO because they are both centered on the same dynamic


I understand they are two sides to the same coin, which is limits to growth. There are some peakers, PStarr in particular, who wants to kind of police or impose peak-oil as the doom that people fear most. So his way of defending the peak-oil meme from the danger of being overrun by AGW is to periodically downplay AGW fear. And the power source of this endless rhetorical loop is his deep hatred of suburban culture, specifically white-yuppie-American suburban culture, as he doesn't seem to acknowledge copycats elsewhere around the globe.

There's only so much of someone's writing you can read before their agenda starts to materialize. And that agenda is exactly what the source of their bias is. As they put forward their "this is how it is and this is how it's gonna go down" manifestos, all they need to do is leave a little wiggle room, but this never happens. The armchair Nostradamuses lay it all on the line with cocky arrogance.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Whatever » Sun 19 Jun 2016, 16:35:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')have you ever been banned from this site?

No.

Exactly as I figured. I was right. You work here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')As to the Tempest in the Oildrum, I don't think I did anything wrong.

Nobody who gets banned ever thinks they did anything wrong.

You would say that.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'T')he one good thing doomerism did for me is send me on a whole bunch of knowledge paths. One of them was to try to get a better handle on human behavior. Some of the best OilDrum posts were essays on psychology. You know, Maslow's Hierarchy of needs, tragedy of the commons, and things like that. Maybe if I could do life over again I'd enter psychology. But what that does for me in a debate is to always lead by looking for cognitive biases.

I think even seemingly the most reasoned essay is peppered with some sort of cognitive bias.

I think you have developed a cognitive bias bias.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'T')he only universal constant is this murky cloud of hate towards anything BAU and TPTB.

Spoken like a true defender of all things BAU.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I')t may not take the 300 years that Greer thinks it will, but doom still moves too slowly for the internet generation. On any given day the situation doesn't change enough to have that much to talk about. That's why I think people feel the need to link a news item (Iran Oil Bourse, Baltic Dry Index, etc...) as a "sign" of the impending fast-crash doom.
However long it takes to get there, a fast crash is the only possible crash. Civilization is a highly networked, complex non-linear system. Critical parts of that system cannot shrink without eventually failing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') networked society behaves like a multicellular organism...random damage is like lopping off a chunk of sheep. Whether or not the sheep survives depends upon which chunk is lost....When we do the analysis, almost any part is critical if you lose enough of it....Now that we can ask questions of such systems in more sophisticated ways, we are discovering that they can be very vulnerable. That means civilization is very vulnerable.

~Yaneer Bar-Yam
New England Complex Systems Institute
Here is a simple experiment to try:

Plug your computer into a wall socket that is controlled by a dimmer switch. Now slowly turn down the power going to your computer. What is your hypothesis of what will happen?

1. The computer's CPU will begin to run slower and slower while the screen gradually dims.
2. The computer will suddenly shut down.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'S')ites like this only really matter to people who feel they have some new item they can wave around like Paul Revere to warn people that doom is coming, doom is coming.
And you will always be waiting here to intercept them. How much do they pay you, Benedict Arnold?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'T')here's only so much of someone's writing you can read before their agenda starts to materialize. And that agenda is exactly what the source of their bias is.
Yes. Exactly. As familiarity has bred contempt, your agenda has also become transparent.

But since you think you are some kind of Sigmund Freud, what's my agenda exactly?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'B')y my count fifty different posters have had the last word on a thread sense the first of June. That would make quite a cocktail party if you got us all into the same apartment but a brawl would undoubtedly break out and the host would have to call the cops.
People tend to be very passionate about important issues. This thread is becoming an epic! It would make for a hell of a cocktail party. But since we are online and not at a cocktail party, we don't have to worry about the discussion becoming physically dangerous, do we? So why won't you discuss the Korowicz paper?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'I') made you an honest offer.
No, you made a me completely disingenuous offer. It wouldn't have mattered how I answered, you were not going to discuss the Korowicz paper. You were just trying to change the subject. I knew that going in and I said so at the time. I don't want to negotiate with you any more. If you don't want to talk about the Korowicz paper, I can't force you to.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'Y')es, as ennui said, when you project, and run from every objective comment because you are afraid of losing the argument, it just becomes more obvious that you CAN'T argue, you just repeat yourself over and over.
I am not the one who is afraid of losing the argument. Talk about projection! I just challenged you to a debate over the Korowicz paper. You ran away. Now you are trying to cover your trail.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'I')t is a classic tell of those who either don't understand what they are talking about (in your case, 3 different particular specialties, as I've mentioned)...
I am a polymath. I understand what I am talking about.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '.')..or lack any objectivity and are selling something.
Are you helping to sell or advertise this Hill report? Or are you them?
Dude, I am the Walrus.

I am not affiliated with The Hill's Group in any way. Around February of 2015, during a discussion on peakoilbarrel.com, I was shown a link to BWHill's site. Since then, I have read the Etp book and debated the model on several sites. Through this exhaustive process, I have become thoroughly convinced that the Etp model is valid.


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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 19 Jun 2016, 19:41:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')Exactly as I figured. I was right. You work here.


Can you say...tinfoil hat?

Look, this place is a ghost town. There's no vested interest pulling the strings behind the scenes. There's almost no resources behind keeping the site up. Moderation is lax because if people were really smacked down for ad homs, nobody would be left. You have to really cross the line to get booted, which is why PStarr getting kicked off a while back meant his behavior was really beyond the pale.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')As to the Tempest in the Oildrum, I don't think I did anything wrong.

Nobody who gets banned ever thinks they did anything wrong.

You would say that.


I said it because it's true, nothing more, nothing less. The last thing someone on the internet will ever do is admit to being wrong or doing something wrong. It's the golden rule.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')Spoken like a true defender of all things BAU.


That's a strawman argument.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')However long it takes to get there, a fast crash is the only possible crash.


You can make all the pronouncements you like. The future will play out however it plays out and it will either validate or disprove your convictions.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', 'W')hen we do the analysis, almost any part is critical if you lose enough of it....

Keyword: "if you lose enough of it".

Hasn't happened yet.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')And you will always be waiting here to intercept them. How much do they pay you, Benedict Arnold?


Stop treating this like a cult. I'm under no obligation to tow any prebaked party line. I'll say it as I see it as an independent thinker.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')your agenda has also become transparent.


Which is?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')But since you think you are some kind of Sigmund Freud, what's my agenda exactly?


There was a time before you joined this site. Why, praytell, have you now taken it as your God-given mission to spend inordinate amount of hours to prove people wrong on the internet by repeating the same arguments ad-infinitum? What do you hope to achieve? You certainly aren't going to learn anything new because your mind is closed. You're not interested in a dialogue, only a soapbox in which to spout your ETP dogma.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')This thread is becoming an epic!


There you go, you get off on this stuff. That's the ultimate objective for you. It's a game, like I said earlier. It's not some sort of lofty pursuit of truth. Well, if you just want to play, then I'm more than happy to oblige.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')I am a polymath. I understand what I am talking about.
Last edited by Tanada on Sun 19 Jun 2016, 20:25:51, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed animated gif
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 19 Jun 2016, 20:26:58

Ennui please knock off with the animated gifs, especially when it is nothing but a childish insult. Hate each other all you want, but maintain public decorum.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfred Tennyson', 'W')e are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 19 Jun 2016, 20:39:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '.')..or lack any objectivity and are selling something.
Are you helping to sell or advertise this Hill report? Or are you them?

Dude, I am the Walrus.

I am not affiliated with The Hill's Group in any way.


1) This is the internet.
2) You pushing not just a flawed analysis, but unable to rebut any objective observations as to those flaws.
3) While demonstrating a non-stop ability to say the same things over and over and over without apparently a seconds consideration of 2).
4) The odds are that when the price of oil crashed, people stopped buying (even as a curiosity) this particular report, and it became time to pimp it in an attempt to restore cash flow.

Just playing the probabilities on this one.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Whatever » Sun 19 Jun 2016, 20:44:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'J')ust playing the probabilities on this one.

And you lost. It happens.

How about that Korowicz paper?



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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 19 Jun 2016, 20:55:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'J')ust playing the probabilities on this one.

And you lost. It happens.


1) would seem to cover this comment.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')
How about that Korowicz paper?


What about it? I haven't seen a chart showing the axis in real pricing, nor have you provided this analysis back to the beginning of oil production that we may determine if it only works on cherry picked time periods. I was specific on the requirements necessary to waste any more time on someone who cannot defend a particular idea. Worse in your case, because you are only reinforcing the notion that what I thought was just ignorance of oil field basics, economic basics and thermodynamics basics, might actually be an attempt to pimp a product for money, which would explain your lack of understanding of even the fundamentals. Salesmen do not need understanding of the basics to sell cars, or stock, or the chemical composition of tooth paste they are hawking at the little stands inside Sam's Club.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Whatever » Mon 20 Jun 2016, 04:26:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', 'H')ow about that Korowicz paper?

What about it? I haven't seen a chart showing the axis in real pricing, nor have you provided this analysis back to the beginning of oil production that we may determine if it only works on cherry picked time periods. I was specific on the requirements necessary to waste any more time on someone who cannot defend a particular idea. Worse in your case, because you are only reinforcing the notion that what I thought was just ignorance of oil field basics, economic basics and thermodynamics basics, might actually be an attempt to pimp a product for money, which would explain your lack of understanding of even the fundamentals. Salesmen do not need understanding of the basics to sell cars, or stock, or the chemical composition of tooth paste they are hawking at the little stands inside Sam's Club.

As I explained before, you are trying to create a false dichotomy in order to change the subject. And we have already thoroughly covered your false inflation argument against the Etp methodology. I feel pretty good about my answer. We have moved on.

I am now trying to talk about the Korowicz paper. It makes no sense to dodge questions about the Korowicz paper with the false accusation that I am supposedly a salesman for the Etp model. The Korowicz paper is not the Etp model.

So now that we have covered your lame objections yet again, let's go ahead and talk about the Korowicz paper, please. Have you read it? If so, what are your main arguments against it?



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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 20 Jun 2016, 08:03:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The Korowicz paper is not the Etp model.


Then why are you flogging it?

You understand what cherry picking is, right? The internet makes it incredibly easy to find pseudo-scientific papers that say whatever it is you want to say. But that doesn't mean their speculations are correct.

Again, the millions of words of technical gobblygook dumped into The Oil Drum is exhibit A for why it is intellectually brain-dead to appeal to authority just because something kinda sounds logical.

At one time I totally respected TOD analysis, but most of it has now been discredited, exposed as a group of smart people colored by their own bias, starting with a conclusion (doom) and back-casting it into how they interpreted the data. There's no way I can accept papers like this at face value anymore.

Note the source, Faesta. Note what other activist material is there:

http://www.feasta.org/2016/03/29/unconv ... al-agency/

http://www.credoeconomics.com/shale-eup ... tural-gas/

You see a pattern? Do you think the analysis is going to be truly objective?

The conclusions they have to make suit their political agenda. It doesn't mean it HAS to be wrong, but you need to be able to confirm it against other sources that don't have the same axe to grind.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 20 Jun 2016, 16:01:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')As I explained before, you are trying to create a false dichotomy in order to change the subject.


Economists use real pricing for a reason, you stating that you do not like their reason is irrelevant. I did not ask for your understanding of economics, only the graph showing your results in the proper and accepted economic context. And I started the subject by stating the conditions required to get me to pay any attention to any paper you want people to read. You don't get my time for free for idiot treasure hunts unless you can show they aren't idiot treasury hunts.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
') And we have already thoroughly covered your false inflation argument against the Etp methodology.


Yes. You have established you are not familiar with economics. I understand this, you have made certain to demonstrate it more than once. It is irrelevant, because my request was specific and was not based on your ignorance of that particular field of science.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')I am now trying to talk about the Korowicz paper.


I would be happy to read it, upon you meeting the two simple criteria I requested. I was specific in my conditions.

Your inability to fulfill such minor requests gives me no hope that, when you extend your ignorance of the three previously mentioned topics, you will be less incoherent in your ignorance that you have been with oil field basics, economics, or thermodynamics. Based on your back and forth with Rockman and Rockdoc, it is probably safe to conclude your understanding of even basic geology is just as lacking.

How have sales of the HIll report been, in this low priced environment? And what is your cut from any increases in those sales?

Image
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 20 Jun 2016, 17:37:02

Adam - This thread has offered some insight to part if your nature: you're a bit of a masocist, aren't you? LOL. Better you then I.

Old joke: the masocist said "Beat me, beat me!" And the sadist said "Nooooo".
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Whatever » Mon 20 Jun 2016, 18:12:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '
')The Korowicz paper is not the Etp model.

Then why are you flogging it?

I am not flogging it. The subject of rapid collapse came up. The Korowicz paper is all about the fact that civilization is a complex non-linear system that can't collapse in a gradual way.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'Y')ou understand what cherry picking is, right? The internet makes it incredibly easy to find pseudo-scientific papers that say whatever it is you want to say. But that doesn't mean their speculations are correct.

That's true. The Korowicz paper first has to be read to even know what it's speculations actually are. Only then can they be evaluated to determine whether or not they are correct.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'A')gain, the millions of words of technical gobblygook dumped into The Oil Drum is exhibit A for why it is intellectually brain-dead to appeal to authority just because something kinda sounds logical.

The Korowicz paper is not an appeal to authority and theoildrum has nothing to do with it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'A')t one time I totally respected TOD analysis, but most of it has now been discredited, exposed as a group of smart people colored by their own bias, starting with a conclusion (doom) and back-casting it into how they interpreted the data.
The Korowicz paper was not published by theoildrum. In fact, theoildrum hand waved away the Korowicz paper in the same way you are trying to do. People there simply refused to read the Korowicz paper, just like here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'T')here's no way I can accept papers like this at face value anymore.
It is too bad that your mind is so closed. There is no way to know what is in the Korowicz paper without actually reading it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'N')ote the source, Faesta.
It's kill the messenger time.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'N')ote what other activist material is there:

http://www.feasta.org/2016/03/29/unconv ... al-agency/

http://www.credoeconomics.com/shale-eup ... tural-gas/

You see a pattern? Do you think the analysis is going to be truly objective?
I don't think you are being truly objective. I see a definite pattern in your analysis.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'T')he conclusions they have to make suit their political agenda.
So you are saying that Korowicz has a political agenda. Do you mean that you think he is a watermelon?

Image

Ennui has no political agenda and no axe to grind. It's just that those damned environmental wackos want to take away our oil! Ennui thinks that Korowicz is green on the outside but red on the inside.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I')t doesn't mean it HAS to be wrong, but you need to be able to confirm it against other sources that don't have the same axe to grind.
Last time I checked, the Heritage Foundation didn't have any papers about non-linear systems or rapid collapse.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'E')conomists use real pricing for a reason, you stating that you do not like their reason is irrelevant. I did not ask for your understanding of economics, only the graph showing your results in the proper and accepted economic context.
Economists are not physicists. The Etp model is a physics model. And not even all economic analyses adjust for inflation. There has to be a reason to. You haven't explained why the Etp model needs to arbitrarily adjust for inflation. This is not about comparing the purchasing power of dollars in different years. If X number of barrels of oil were produced in 1990, they were purchased with 1990 dollars. So inflation is already factored in. Here is how I explained this before:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Futilitist', 'I') think you are trying to change the subject, but I will humor your request anyway.

If by real oil prices you mean adjusted for inflation, then you are making a bogus argument. The Etp model takes the yearly oil production numbers, average water cut, and reservoir temperature and feeds them into the Entropy Rate Balance Equation for Control Volumes. It is a year by year iteration. The output is the yearly entropy growth rate which happens to correlate very strongly with the yearly average oil price increase. The model is sensibly back checked and verified against the ACTUAL yearly average oil price. Arbitrarily adjusting for inflation makes no sense at all. Unless you can demonstrate why inflation needs to be considered in the Etp methodology, Mr. First Order Principle, then I submit I have held up my end of the bargain. It is now time for you to take the challenge.

Please read the Korowicz paper and let me know why you think he is wrong. Thanks.

Here's that link again:

http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/upload ... e-Off1.pdf
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'A')nd I started the subject by stating the conditions required to get me to pay any attention to any paper you want people to read. You don't get my time for free...
For someone who thinks their time is so valuable, you sure have wasted a lot of time on this useless negotiation! It is pathetically obvious that you are just using this as an excuse to avoid the subject of the Korowicz paper. You can give it a rest now.

I guess we just can't make a deal. Your required conditions are simply too onerous. I don't really care that much about your opinion of the Korowicz paper anyway. Never mind. Your knee jerk avoidance of the topic tells me all I need to know.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('The ROCKMAN', 'A')dam - This thread has offered some insight to part if your nature: you're a bit of a masocist, aren't you? LOL. Better you then I.

Old joke: the masocist said "Beat me, beat me!" And the sadist said "Nooooo".
Thanks for that insightful comment, ROCKMAN.

It seems that the Korowicz paper is so shocking that no one will even read it! LOL.



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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 21 Jun 2016, 09:09:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')dam - This thread has offered some insight to part if your nature: you're a bit of a masocist, aren't you? LOL. Better you then I.

Old joke: the masocist said "Beat me, beat me!" And the sadist said "Nooooo".


Anyone who, with a straight face, can pretend that the way the world works (in this case the oil world) isn't the way the world works, deserves at least a little additional admonishment, don't you think?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Whatever » Sat 02 Jul 2016, 17:40:21

I guess the Korowicz paper is *WAY* too scary for people here to talk about.

I am officially the doomiest doomer on the internet!



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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 02 Jul 2016, 18:34:43

I started making my way through it. It's basically a fast-crash house-of-cards manifesto. It's not like I've never read that kind of thing before. It also mentions scenarios like the breakup of the EU, which we're seeing now. People who write these sorts of super-technical papers have a hard time getting to the punch-line. It's like Greer. So much repetitiousness and beating around the bush. At the end of the day what exactly are we supposed to take from this? We should all invest in gold and bullets and whiskey? Are we supposed to live each day quaking in our boots? Sorry. I have to get up each day and trudge to work like everyone else. So far I've gone 10 years without the kind of doom I was once expecting to see happen manifest itself. If I'm lucky I'll at least make it to retirement age before the situation feels apocalyptic. But based on my reading of the status quo, I do not feel that we're on the precipice of the proverbial trucks stopping and empty store shelves and rioting.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Whatever » Sat 02 Jul 2016, 21:00:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I') started making my way through it. It's basically a fast-crash house-of-cards manifesto. It's not like I've never read that kind of thing before.

That's great. You are familiar with the subject of rapid collapse. I notice that the rest of your post doesn't say anything about why a rapid collapse won't happen. You don't mention anything that could actually prevent it from happening.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I')t also mentions scenarios like the breakup of the EU, which we're seeing now.

And the paper was written in 2012. Did you foresee the EU breakup?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'P')eople who write these sorts of super-technical papers have a hard time getting to the punch-line. It's like Greer.

It's nothing like Greer. It's more like the opposite.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'A')t the end of the day what exactly are we supposed to take from this?

Collapse will be very sudden and rapid.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'W')e should all invest in gold and bullets and whiskey? Are we supposed to live each day quaking in our boots? Sorry. I have to get up each day and trudge to work like everyone else. So far I've gone 10 years without the kind of doom I was once expecting to see happen manifest itself. If I'm lucky I'll at least make it to retirement age before the situation feels apocalyptic.
You will not be that lucky. We are already in collapse. Things are about to get much worse. If you really expected doom 10 years ago, you should really, really expect doom now. Your position makes no sense.

You haven't listed anything that would invalidate the Korowicz paper, and instead, you jump to irrelevant emotional arguments. How you are supposed to react is entirely up to you. And why do you only accept the kind of doom you were expecting 10 years ago? That seems very closed minded.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'B')ut based on my reading of the status quo, I do not feel that we're on the precipice of the proverbial trucks stopping and empty store shelves and rioting.
According to the Korowicz paper, we could very suddenly find ourselves on that precipice, almost without any warning. Things will go from seeming "normal" to empty shelves within weeks of a large scale financial crisis. And that type of crisis could start next week. With continuously declining total energy and mountains of unpayable debt, the day of reckoning must certainly arrive soon. Collapse will be more rapid than anything you are used to, so your reading of the status quo will probably not give you any advanced notice at all.



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Last edited by Whatever on Sat 02 Jul 2016, 22:53:01, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 02 Jul 2016, 21:39:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', 'I') guess the Korowicz paper is *WAY* too scary for people here to talk about.


I would be happy to talk about it. Let me know when you redo the entropy model to encompass the history of the industry it purports to predict, using the real price of oil.

Until then, models using cherry picked data and time frames, and nominal prices across even more limited time frames, are just silly to even discuss. This one, and your understanding of it, can't get through a first level technical review.

Do better next time, if you want to be taken seriously.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 02 Jul 2016, 21:42:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', 'I') guess the Korowicz paper is *WAY* too scary for people here to talk about.
I am officially the doomiest doomer on the internet!
---Futilitist 8)


You must have missed the hayday of peak oil, to think another run of the mill chicken little scenario is any worse than what has already NOT happened.

Get in line...

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/200 ... edlot.html
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Whatever » Sun 03 Jul 2016, 00:05:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', 'I') guess the Korowicz paper is *WAY* too scary for people here to talk about.


I would be happy to talk about it. Let me know when you redo the entropy model to encompass the history of the industry it purports to predict, using the real price of oil.

Until then, models using cherry picked data and time frames, and nominal prices across even more limited time frames, are just silly to even discuss. This one, and your understanding of it, can't get through a first level technical review.

Do better next time, if you want to be taken seriously.

Yo, Adam. Knock off the condescending sh*t. What you are doing is trolling.

I don't have time for this crap. If you want to discuss the Korowicz paper, that is cool. If not, go away please. Thanks.



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