[FatherOfTwo]

Let me start this off with a ‘WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!”
I spent about 4 hours doing research Friday, rolling up all the facts into a post only to have the post lost, apparently forever. I guess this is why.

Frign’smign’,grumble blah!

Sigh. The purpose of the thread was to examine the dogma that PeakOil equals energy scarcity. So I’ll try and resurrect the research from the cobwebs of my short term memory.

I’m of the belief that as we start slip sliding down the slope of Peak Oil that coal and nuclear will become the King Daddies of our energy usage. However, many state that once we reach peak oil, we won’t be able to continue, let alone increase, the supply of energy alternatives. So I decided to research it. The mining and transportation of uranium is far less energy intensive than coal, so I researched coal mining and shipping.

In the thread I went into a great amount of detail about the amount of fuel, diesel usage particularly, that is required to mine one years worth of coal in the US. I found a bunch of facts about amount of diesel used per tonne of coal mined (Australian mine uses 1.2 litres of diesel per tonne), the average distance that coal is shipped in the US (680 miles) the fuel requirements of the rail doing the majority of the shipping (1 gallon will move 377 tonnes one mile). The bottom line was that 2 days of US supply was needed to mine the coal and 10 days were needed to ship the coal. And an important note is that it really only is 2 days supply, because a barrel of oil doesn’t equal a barrel of diesel, it’s a bunch of gas, a smaller amount of diesel, kerosene etc etc. Simply put, 40 million barrels of diesel (360 million gallons) are required for one years worth of coal.

That is a pretty manageable amount. So the gauntlet has been thrown down – as far as I see it, this is a good example of why peak oil doesn’t equal energy scarcity (not immediately anyways).

Any takers?

Sources:
fuel efficiency of rail transport
Blackwater mine diesel requirements
Coal transportation facts

[Ludi]

I was sad to see that thread disappear as well, but here it is back again.

I think at least initially there will be scarcity of energy in an easily useable form, especially for transportation. Though there are alternatives, the production and distribution infrastructure isn't in place for them. Contrary to some beliefs, there is not rail transportation in all areas. There's no rail transport through my region, which used to have its own rail through all the towns here and into the city, to transport agricultural products. It was dismantled. I would have been able to ride my bike to the town two miles form here, and take the train into any of the neighboring towns or into the city, but alas, no more. There is a plan to build rail through here in the future, but I don't see where the money for it is going to come from, and it would disrupt many communities and family farms.

[RonMN]

So we'll trade "energy scarcity" for coal pollution, acid rain, & nuclear mishaps.

I'm not disagreeing with you...i just think it's sad. We will finish off the environment completely!

[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') was sad to see that thread disappear as well, but here it is back again.

I think at least initially there will be scarcity of energy in an easily useable form, especially for transportation. Though there are alternatives, the production and distribution infrastructure isn't in place for them. Contrary to some beliefs, there is not rail transportation in all areas. There's no rail transport through my region, which used to have its own rail through all the towns here and into the city, to transport agricultural products. It was dismantled. I would have been able to ride my bike to the town two miles form here, and take the train into any of the neighboring towns or into the city, but alas, no more. There is a plan to build rail through here in the future, but I don't see where the money for it is going to come from, and it would disrupt many communities and family farms.

[khebab]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'S')o we'll trade "energy scarcity" for coal pollution, acid rain, & nuclear mishaps.

I'm not disagreeing with you...i just think it's sad. We will finish off the environment completely!

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('khebab', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'S')o we'll trade "energy scarcity" for coal pollution, acid rain, & nuclear mishaps.

I'm not disagreeing with you...i just think it's sad. We will finish off the environment completely!

[Leanan]

I posted a reply to this Friday, before it was flushed down the cyberspace toilet. (Any chance the mods could lock the board before they take a snapshot of the server, so people don't waste time writing posts that will vanish in a couple of hours?)

I think your estimates are incomplete. See this article, written by a coal industry insider:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/4/23/214849/506

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Draglines taller than a twenty story building. Trucks that make an sixteen wheeler look like something made by Tonka.

[khebab]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fatheroftwo', 'I')n the thread I went into a great amount of detail about the amount of fuel, diesel usage particularly, that is required to mine one years worth of coal in the US. I found a bunch of facts about amount of diesel used per tonne of coal mined (Australian mine uses 1.2 litres of diesel per tonne), the average distance that coal is shipped in the US (680 miles) the fuel requirements of the rail doing the majority of the shipping (1 gallon will move 377 tonnes one mile). The bottom line was that 2 days of US supply was needed to mine the coal and 10 days were needed to ship the coal. And an important note is that it really only is 2 days supply, because a barrel of oil doesn’t equal a barrel of diesel, it’s a bunch of gas, a smaller amount of diesel, kerosene etc etc. Simply put, 40 million barrels of diesel (360 million gallons) are required for one years worth of coal.

[FatherOfTwo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'W')e have to consider not only the oil used to fuel these behemoths, but the oil used to manufacture them. Ore must be mined, steel melted and worked, etc. We're talking temps in the thousands of degrees here - high-energy operations.

Similarly, we have to consider the energy cost of manufacturing trucks, trains, and other vehicles for transportation. And the cost of building more power plants to use the coal.

This is the argument Matt Savinaar makes at his site, and David Goodstein makes in his book. Building infrastructure has an energy cost. If we switch to another source of energy - coal, nuclear, whatever - we will have to build a lot of new infrastructure, just when there's less oil to do it with.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', ' ') We’re talking about being on war-footing here.

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')But I would hazard a guess that the amount of energy to do all of that is miniscule compared to the amount of wasted energy used manufacturing and shipping all sorts of non-essential goods.

[RdSnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', ' ') We’re talking about being on war-footing here.

[FatherOfTwo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'I') don't think it's as miniscule as you think. It would be difficult for us now, when oil is still relatively plentiful. (There's a reason why our electricity infrastructure is failing, yet no one is doing anything about it.)

Even if it is...that doesn't support your point. It supports mine. Energy will be scarce. We'll have to cut back, one way or another. Whatever way we do it will be unpleasant.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', ' ')We have to consider not only the oil used to fuel these behemoths, but the oil used to manufacture them. Ore must be mined, steel melted and worked, etc. We're talking temps in the thousands of degrees here - high-energy operations.

[SchroedingersCat]

Doing a quick back-of-the-envelope calc here, I think some of these numbers are off. US used about 1100 million short tons in 2004. That would take about 350 million gallons of diesel to mine and another 2040 million gallons to transport by rail. So, 2390 million gallons of diesel. That's about 57 million barrels or less than 5% of our total diesel consumption. High-grade coal has a bboe of .6 so we look at 660-57 = 603. Not bad. At this time, almost all of that coal is being burned to produce electricy.

Where this gets interesting is in how we define scarcity. Those 57 million barrels have to come from somewhere. And, they represent 250 million barrels of crude. What happens when 250 million barrels represents what we have available for 30 days instead of 10 or 12? What sector of the economy doesn't get energy? Will that be enough to power all our electric cars? Can we subtract enough diesel from the rest of the economy to ramp up coal?

Energy is a zero-sum game.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SchroedingersCat', ' ')Will that be enough to power all our electric cars?

[SchroedingersCat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SchroedingersCat', ' ')Will that be enough to power all our electric cars?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SchroedingersCat', '
')I just tossed in electric cars to represent the idea that electricity is most likely to take over from liquid fuels in many applications as liquid fuels become more expensive and less available.

As JohnDenver keeps mentioning, high energy consumption does not always mean high oil consumption. However, right now I would like to see any part of our modern economy that does not require oil for its inputs or process. Oil is an major piece of our energy pie. Without some astonishing efforts, less oil will mean less energy.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SchroedingersCat', 'W')here this gets interesting is in how we define scarcity. Those 57 million barrels have to come from somewhere. And, they represent 250 million barrels of crude. [...] Can we subtract enough diesel from the rest of the economy to ramp up coal?

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', 'Y')ou skipped the part in that report about 'total energy used' = 196,000 MHW

Most coal mines use ELECTRIC shovels.