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Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Postby StarvingLion » Mon 13 Jun 2016, 23:36:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')nergy consumed by the oil & gas industry is reported to the International Association of Oil & Gas Producers (OGP)


No way they are reporting energy consumed honestly: proof below.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he remaining 82% of the energy is used by consumers:


And in the Service "Economy" of both the USA and China, they are "replacing human workers (consumers) as rapidly as possible. I guess the Jobless Consumer really does exist according to the OGP.

"China’s shift to consumption and services lies at the heart of Xi’s quest for new growth...The government at all levels in Guangdong has been encouraging companies to replace human workers as rapidly as possible,” said Lu. “I can see our business increasing more than 50 percent this year.”
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Postby kublikhan » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 00:05:41

China's economy added 13 million new jobs last year, despite the increasing use of automation. China's unemployment rate fell last year. And China is facing a labor shortage. Jobless Consumer? Hardly.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Postby ennui2 » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 00:29:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'W')e're not as close to using all the oil in the world to make all the oil in the world as ETP's bogus statistics says we are, period.
How the hell do you know that?
Energy consumed by the oil & gas industry is reported to the International Association of Oil & Gas Producers (OGP). You can then use their total energy produced to calculate how much of energy they consume per unit of output. Turns out, the oil & gas industry only uses about 8%-18%(depending on how you measure) of the energy it produces. The remaining 82% of the energy is used by consumers:


Image
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Postby radon1 » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 02:40:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', ' ') Consumers cannot spend more money than they actually have.

If there were no maximum thermodynamic limit to the price of oil, that would imply that the price of oil could rise to infinity. Of course that is impossible


What does the amounts of money held by consumers have to do with thermodynamics? Price of oil can be whatever high, ask Zimbabwe.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Postby ennui2 » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 03:27:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'n')ot if there are actual adult scientists involved.


Scientists? You mean an anti-suburbia demagogues like you (who, in the studious pursuit of truth, is quick to question other men's masculinity and accuse them of living in mommy's basement) or would that be Whatever who has confessed that he treats ETP as his own personal "grand unification theory" religion? Yeah, we've got some objective scientific method going on here with you two. Such rigorously on-point and dispassionate rhetorical technique the world has never seen.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Postby Whatever » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 04:44:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'S')cientists? You mean an anti-suburbia demagogues like you (who, in the studious pursuit of truth, is quick to question other men's masculinity and accuse them of living in mommy's basement) or would that be Whatever who has confessed that he treats ETP as his own personal "grand unification theory" religion?

I never said any such thing. I said the Maximum Power Principle (not the Etp model) was like a grand unified theory that explains how all life works. I said the Etp model was consistent with the MPP. That is all. To fully embrace the science behind the MPP does not make it into a religion. I think your brand of knee jerk denial is more like a religion than any scientific perspective could be.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'Y')eah, we've got some objective scientific method going on here with you two. Such rigorously on-point and dispassionate rhetorical technique the world has never seen.

I have been trying to seriously discuss the subject of the Etp model and thermodynamic limits as dispassionately as I can while you post useless cartoons and animation loops like a petulant child.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('radon1', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', 'C')onsumers cannot spend more money than they actually have.

If there were no maximum thermodynamic limit to the price of oil, that would imply that the price of oil could rise to infinity. Of course that is impossible

What does the amounts of money held by consumers have to do with thermodynamics?

Everything. Did you even read my post? Of course you did.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Futilitist', 'C')onsumers are the end users of oil. They must pay the full cost of the production, refining and delivery of oil. The economy runs on the energy it gets from oil. The total immediately available energy determines the level of world economic growth. The level of world economic growth determines how much money consumers have to spend on oil. Consumers cannot spend more money than they actually have.

If there were no maximum thermodynamic limit to the price of oil, that would imply that the price of oil could rise to infinity. Of course that is impossible since consumers cannot spend more money than they actually have. If you then claim that there are many other things that can limit the oil price to less than infinity that is fine, but these things cannot possibly result in a sustainable oil price that is higher than the maximum thermodynamic limit.

All human activities and decisions take place within the bounds of the physical laws of the universe. No matter what humans may imagine is possible, the laws of thermodynamics cannot be superseded.
My whole last post was all about what "the amounts of money held by consumers have to do with thermodynamics". You just cut all that explanation stuff out when you quoted me and then asked your innocent sounding question for the second time. That is just a cheap trick to cause frustration. Rockdoc did the same trick over and over. So has ennui2. I think you guys all learn this one in psyops school.

By the way, although I might bitch about it, I don't actually mind rephrasing my explanations over and over (up to a point). It helps me to craft a more effective message over time. Here is my third restatement of how money and energy are related. Enjoy:

The amount of money held by consumers depends on the overall health of the economy. The overall health of the economy depends on the amount of energy that is immediately available to it. Energy creates the economy and the economy creates the money to buy the energy to create the economy.

The economy is a thermodynamic heat engine that runs on the energy from oil. All economic activity depends on the immediately available energy. Consumer's oil affordability is completely dependent on the overall health of the economy which depends on the energy it gets from oil. This is a thermodynamic loop.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('radon1', 'P')rice of oil can be whatever high, ask Zimbabwe.
The price of oil on the world oil market cannot be whatever high. I don't care what Zimbabwe has to say about it.



---Futilitist 8)
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Postby marmico » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 06:51:15

Starr, are you going to do the ETP Method 2 proof or not?

Just a giggle for futilist whatever, here is a backcast Method 1 proof for 1981:

US data for 1981:

GDP; $3.2 trillion *1
The price of WTI; $31.77/ barrel
Petroleum consumption; 5.9 Gb/ year *2
% energy consumption from petroleum, EIA; 42% *3
Total US crude cost = $186 billion (consumption x price)

Method 1

Converting $186 billion of crude consumed into goods and services required: $186 billion/0.2045 = $910 billion.
42% x GDP = $1.34 trillion

Percent of total petroleum dollars used to extract, process, and distribute it: $0.91 trillion/ $1.34 trillion = 68%.

Wowser, the magical 50% was passed in 1981. The ETP Method 1 proof is GIGO.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Postby AdamB » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 08:33:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')I have been trying to seriously discuss the subject of the Etp model and thermodynamic limits as dispassionately as I can while you post useless cartoons and animation loops like a petulant child.

---Futilitist 8)


You cannot discuss the Etp model seriously because it is the joke. Ennui2 seems to understand this, but you do not. It is worthy of the response he gives it.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Postby vtsnowedin » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 08:34:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marmico', 'S')tarr, are you going to do the ETP Method 2 proof or not?

Just a giggle for futilist whatever, here is a backcast Method 1 proof for 1981:

US data for 1981:

GDP; $3.2 trillion *1
The price of WTI; $31.77/ barrel
Petroleum consumption; 5.9 Gb/ year *2
% energy consumption from petroleum, EIA; 42% *3
Total US crude cost = $186 billion (consumption x price)

Method 1

Converting $186 billion of crude consumed into goods and services required: $186 billion/0.2045 = $910 billion.
42% x GDP = $1.34 trillion

Percent of total petroleum dollars used to extract, process, and distribute it: $0.91 trillion/ $1.34 trillion = 68%.

Wowser, the magical 50% was passed in 1981. The ETP Method 1 proof is GIGO.

A simpler version. Take the oil consumption at retail price say twice the crude price or $372 billion and divide into GDP 3,200 billion$ and get a $ returned for $ invested of $8.60
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Postby radon1 » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 08:45:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Whatever', '
')The price of oil on the world oil market cannot be whatever high.


What "world oil market"? There is nothing about the "world oil market" in your question.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Postby marmico » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 09:03:20

It is simple. I'm just following Method 1 empirical proof of the ETP algorithm. The ETP author, like you, can easily calculate the proof on an annual basis from 1960 forward. 56 cells x 4 columns variable plus one column fixed. For purposes of current analysis there are now 3 points of data. 1981=68%, 2012=50% and 2015=26%. The ETP author calculated the 2012 point, I calculated the 1981 and 2015 points; futilist whatever can calculate the other 53 points and put it in graph form.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Postby kublikhan » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 14:58:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'g')ot a link to the methodology? How did the Oil and Gas Producers arrive at that net-energy figure? Tnx in advance.
OGP was just the data source as far as I know. The net-energy analysis was done by the Wells-To-Wheels initiative. The original article seemed a bit dated so I linked to a more recent analysis in my second link so the numbers may have changed slightly since then. Anyway, here is the link again:

WELL-TO-WHEELS ANALYSIS

It's over 140 pages long and I have not read all of it. But here are a few page numbers to get you started:
Section Title Page
2 Scope, Methodology, Definitions, Structure 12
3.1 Crude oil pathways 20
4 Final fuels: Energy and GHG balance 83
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Postby StarvingLion » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 15:47:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'g')ot a link to the methodology? How did the Oil and Gas Producers arrive at that net-energy figure? Tnx in advance.
OGP was just the data source as far as I know. The net-energy analysis was done by the Wells-To-Wheels initiative. The original article seemed a bit dated so I linked to a more recent analysis in my second link so the numbers may have changed slightly since then. Anyway, here is the link again:

WELL-TO-WHEELS ANALYSIS

It's over 140 pages long and I have not read all of it. But here are a few page numbers to get you started:
Section Title Page
2 Scope, Methodology, Definitions, Structure 12
3.1 Crude oil pathways 20
4 Final fuels: Energy and GHG balance 83


Report from Europe: the same place that has built >25000 useless EROEI negative windmills and is bankrupt. Hey lets all get some german bonds that pay nothing.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Postby vtsnowedin » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 16:32:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'g')ot a link to the methodology? How did the Oil and Gas Producers arrive at that net-energy figure? Tnx in advance.
OGP was just the data source as far as I know. The net-energy analysis was done by the Wells-To-Wheels initiative. The original article seemed a bit dated so I linked to a more recent analysis in my second link so the numbers may have changed slightly since then. Anyway, here is the link again:

WELL-TO-WHEELS ANALYSIS

It's over 140 pages long and I have not read all of it. But here are a few page numbers to get you started:
Section Title Page
2 Scope, Methodology, Definitions, Structure 12
3.1 Crude oil pathways 20
4 Final fuels: Energy and GHG balance 83


Report from Europe: the same place that has built >25000 useless EROEI negative windmills and is bankrupt. Hey lets all get some german bonds that pay nothing.

I get your point about the German bonds but have to doubt that any modern windmill is EROEI negative. Even mid-evil Dutch mills pumping out Zealand turned a profit.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Postby kublikhan » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 16:58:57

Wind turbines being EROEI negative is complete BS. I wasn't going to even bother responding to such blatantly false information but:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')S researchers have carried out an environmental lifecycle assessment of 2-megawatt wind turbines mooted for a large wind farm in the US Pacific Northwest. Writing in the International Journal of Sustainable Manufacturing, they conclude that in terms of cumulative energy payback, or the time to produce the amount of energy required of production and installation, a wind turbine with a working life of 20 years will offer a net benefit within five to eight months of being brought online.

Their analysis shows that the vast majority of predicted environmental impacts would be caused by materials production and manufacturing processes. However, the payback for the associated energy use is within about 6 months, the team found. It is likely that even in a worst case scenario, lifetime energy requirements for each turbine will be subsumed by the first year of active use. Thus, for the 19 subsequent years, each turbine will, in effect, power over 500 households without consuming electricity generated using conventional energy sources.
Wind turbine payback: Environmental lifecycle assessment of 2-megawatt wind turbines
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Postby ennui2 » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 17:06:10

If I've read one SL post, I've read them all. Everything's a ponzi scheme and everybody is being deliberately scammed and we're all stupid sheeple for not realizing it the way he (in his great wisdom) does. It's a paranoid view of the world meant to make himself feel better for whatever sorry state he finds himself in.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Postby Whatever » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 18:27:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I')f I've read one SL post, I've read them all. Everything's a ponzi scheme and everybody is being deliberately scammed and we're all stupid sheeple for not realizing it the way he (in his great wisdom) does. It's a paranoid view of the world meant to make himself feel better for whatever sorry state he finds himself in.

The StarvingLion character was designed to appeal to people with a certain mindset. He is an archetype, like you are. That way, when people tune in to these fake discussions, they see characters they can either identify with or hate. The regular cast controls the "frame" of all debates that take place here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'g')ot a link to the methodology? How did the Oil and Gas Producers arrive at that net-energy figure? Tnx in advance.
OGP was just the data source as far as I know.

OGP only gets data from about 32% of world oil producers. They don't explain how the producers gauge their total energy consumption.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'T')he net-energy analysis was done by the Wells-To-Wheels initiative.

It's just another net energy estimate. They are a dime a dozen it seems.

I am not dissing ERoEI estimates. I am just saying that energy flows are invisible. You can't possibly accurately account for all of the energy that goes into the production of oil using this type of additive approach. Energy flows are just too complex. Because some things are inevitably missed, I believe that all of the ERoEI estimates done to date are too high.

The Etp model does not try to account for every possible energy cost. It uses the Entropy Rate Balance Equation for Control Volumes to get a direct answer.



---Futilitist 8)
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