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Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Postby ennui2 » Fri 03 Jun 2016, 19:05:25

I don't know who is responsible for sticking stuff on the homepage but it's the worst case of cherry-picking I've ever seen.

If you want to go looking for doom, you can always find it if you dig deep enough. When I go mining for news I mentally filter out your Zerohedges and other doom bloggers and just look for instances where it percolates into the MSM.

The refrain then is "The MSM doesn't cover doom!" The hell they don't! At least for environmental doom, there's a TON of it flooding through google news on a regular basis. ScienceDaily, National Geographic, Newsweek, you name it.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Postby ennui2 » Fri 03 Jun 2016, 22:10:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')hanks for sharing ennui. Doom. doomer. doom doomer. Got anything else to say? Nah.


The truth hurts, I guess.

Wake me when you have a real rebuttal.
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Postby AdamB » Sat 04 Jun 2016, 08:52:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'I') don't know who is responsible for sticking stuff on the homepage but it's the worst case of cherry-picking I've ever seen.


Well, if you assume that belief and positive reinforcement of that belief is more important than facts, analysis, historical precedent, it makes perfect sense. Not saying that cheery picking news stories rises to that level, but when you have folks out there who understand the data, collect the statistics, analyze at a level that no one here is capable of, with more experts in multiple interrelated fields all having to do with our energy future, why wouldn't you include at least the pertinent details? They have those cute little daily blurbs for a reason, and it would seem that we are the audience just as much as joe average, teachers in the classroom, policy folks and politicians, academics, lots of folks.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '
')If you want to go looking for doom, you can always find it if you dig deep enough. When I go mining for news I mentally filter out your Zerohedges and other doom bloggers and just look for instances where it percolates into the MSM.

The refrain then is "The MSM doesn't cover doom!" The hell they don't! At least for environmental doom, there's a TON of it flooding through google news on a regular basis. ScienceDaily, National Geographic, Newsweek, you name it.


Of course someone who believes in doom can find doom by picking up any newspaper. That is part of the beauty of drawing that conclusion first, deflating the necessary scary words down to local newspaper level, and presto!! You can have doom everywhere. You have to admit it is a nice scheme...define "collapse" as nothing more complex than fewer jobs added to the employment rolls last month than expected...

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e ... SKCN0YO1I8

and proclaim the end. You can keep going FOREVER with this scheme, because it is how you turn X years of growth since the last recession into nothing more than a precursor for dieoff, economic destruction requiring advanced gold buggery ideas, more guns and ammo!, or whatever the action is someone wants to take, and just needs an excuse for.

You can see explaining to wife why you need that extra case of 223, "no honey, we can't contribute towards our retirement account this month, we need some more ammo for repelling zombies, didn't you see the employment doom in the papers yesterday?". Of course, if you are a rich doomer, you just do both. Then you can keep doom as a hobby, an excuse to get a hunting cabin, or practice more at the range, whatever the real action is that you have somehow attached to faux doom. Faux doom to someone else, but perhaps you have convinced yourself it is very real, which some undoubtedly have.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Postby AdamB » Sat 04 Jun 2016, 08:59:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')hanks for sharing ennui. Doom. doomer. doom doomer. Got anything else to say? Nah.


Thought he did a particularly outstanding job on the ETP model and overwhelming the Futilists meager defense pretty well, myself. And as Deffeyyes and Simmons have both mentioned, there is no doom requirement in peak oil. Both of them said that with some adjustment (within 5 years with Deffeyes, so we were past that by 2010, 2005 being his peak oil call), we can expect a new boom in technotopia and human behavior corrective action as a consequence, living in our renewable powered world of peace and harmony. It is why they are such wonderful references to be familiar with, because after entire books detailing a problem, they can see it being an advantage. In the case of Deffeyyes, he was right, and we are now experiencing some of that advantage, such as reduced fuel prices and plenty of supply to go around. Simmons had a more techno-topia angle, and while we have seen a veritable explosion in windmills and utility scale PV, the very success of the oil industry to increase supply and reduce price has limited that effect to some extent.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Postby Cog » Sat 04 Jun 2016, 09:14:05

I look at doom as an investment to make a profit on hard core doomers who see collapse right around the corner. The benefit is if collapse occurs I'm more prepared but if not I make a profit off other's paranoia.

After Sandy Hook the panic buying of everything gun related, ammo, parts, magazines, etc -were epic. Guys were making 200--300% profit. Actually, except for the fact that Hillary is a criminal who would sell out the country, she would be very good for gun profits.
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Postby ROCKMAN » Sat 04 Jun 2016, 10:01:19

Cog - She's got a real challenge to match the hundreds of $millions in weapon sales President Obama motivated. LOL.
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Postby Lore » Sat 04 Jun 2016, 10:22:07

Or, killing tens of thousands of people in a made up war.
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Postby ennui2 » Sat 04 Jun 2016, 11:33:18

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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Postby AdamB » Tue 07 Jun 2016, 21:00:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'O')r, killing tens of thousands of people in a made up war.


As long as the Peace Prize winner in chief just does it to them furriners....
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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Postby Tanada » Wed 08 Jun 2016, 06:49:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 't')his is such a stupid thread, and that is why I don't bother joining this idiot thread. Anyone who believes in abiotic oil does not deserve to post at po.com

gadzooks Robin!


I believe some small percentage of world oil supply could be abiotic, but even if it is it doesn't change a darn thing because we are using it a million times faster than it accumulates. We do know that a very small percentage of Natural Gas is abiotic, but transitioning from the simplest hydrocarbon molecule up to C6H14 and C8H18 is a very long and complicated process. I just don't see that being much of a possibility in a natural system where random chemicals and catalysts and temperatures jumble together to magically produce useful petroleum molecules.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Postby Revi » Wed 08 Jun 2016, 10:50:49

Here's Ron Patterson's latest post in Peak Oil Barrel. It shows some interesting things. They are still forecasting increases, but that's just a forecast. Look at the existing trend and see where it goes.

http://peakoilbarrel.com
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Postby ROCKMAN » Wed 08 Jun 2016, 11:43:41

Sure...no problamo. Now that China is only growing at 5%+ instead of over 10% nothing to worry about increased oil consumption of our finite reserves:

Executive Summary: Gasoline has taken over as the main driver of incremental oil products demand growth in China. This ties China’s crude oil appetite more tightly to consumer trends, as opposed to industrial growth. In the Chinese market, it takes approximately 19 passenger cars to equal the annual crude oil demand created by one heavy-duty diesel truck.

In 2015, 551 thousand new heavy trucks were sold in China, versus 21.2 million new passenger cars—a 38:1 ratio, meaning that passenger cars and their gasoline thirst are now decisively driving incremental oil demand growth in China. For the next three years, each million new passenger cars sold in China will likely create approximately 10 kbd of incremental gasoline demand. I estimate each barrel of gasoline demand is worth approximately 3.8 barrels of crude throughput in a typical Chinese refinery.

The rising importance of gasoline demand and the decline in diesel use reflect a broad structural shift: crude oil is rapidly becoming a consumer good in China, not an industrial commodity as it was during the halcyon years of burgeoning diesel fuel demand.
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Postby ROCKMAN » Wed 08 Jun 2016, 11:57:23

And once again the important FACT about abiotic oil. Regardless of where and how oil it is generated we still only find it when it can physically exist and accumulates in traps. IOW there are not two separate efforts in the oil patch: one hunting abiotic oil and one hunting organic oil. We look for any oil accumulations regardless of its origins. PO is peak oil...not PAO or POO.

And if you don't understand PAO/POO keep it to yourself to avoid embarrassment. LOL
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Postby hvacman » Wed 08 Jun 2016, 13:21:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')nd once again the important FACT about abiotic oil. Regardless of where and how oil it is generated we still only find it when it can physically exist and accumulates in traps. IOW there are not two separate efforts in the oil patch: one hunting abiotic oil and one hunting organic oil. We look for any oil accumulations regardless of its origins. PO is peak oil...not PAO or POO.

And if you don't understand PAO/POO keep it to yourself to avoid embarrassment. LOL


So, if I understand the RM right, we can look at oil kind of like ground water in California. It doesn't matter if the aquifer is filled solely with "fossil" water that was trapped millennia ago or if it is also recharged yearly via rain, snowmelt, or horizontal groundwater movement from other surface sources. If the reservoir is pumped faster than it replenishes (if it is replenished at all) and eventually depletes to the point you have to back off or stop production, you got a peak water problem, at least in that reservoir, regardless of the "source" of that reservoir's ground water. Add up all the known reservoirs - if the sum total of all is in reduced production status - you got a regional or global peak (fill-in-the-blank) problem.
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Postby ROCKMAN » Wed 08 Jun 2016, 13:33:40

Hman - Good analogy with one qualification: ground water can replenish in a time scale usefull for humans. Oil, be it abiotic or organic, won't. In none of the MILLIONS of wells drilled in the last hundred years has a single oil reservoir been shown to have accumulated any more recent then a few million years.
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Postby Synapsid » Wed 08 Jun 2016, 16:07:59

ROCKMAN,

About those auto sales in China: the growth is in SUVs. It seems that everyone wants one there.

Comforting to know we aren't the only country going down that road.
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Re: Has the danger of Peak Oil passed?

Postby hvacman » Wed 08 Jun 2016, 16:16:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'H')man - Good analogy with one qualification: ground water can replenish in a time scale usefull for humans. Oil, be it abiotic or organic, won't. In none of the MILLIONS of wells drilled in the last hundred years has a single oil reservoir been shown to have accumulated any more recent then a few million years.


In some aquifers - yes, it CAN replenish in a humanly-significant time scale. In others, such as in Saudi Arabia and the Ogallala aquifer in the mid-west US, they are essentially "fossil" aquifers for current civilization purposes - water that accumulated over millennia during a prior wetter period and that yearly re-charging is not a significant factor. It is estimated it will take 6,000 years for the Ogallala to recover once it is depleted. Not 100 million years, but also not just a human generation or two.

From
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f there is a lesson emerging, it is this: Wells run dry. Mismanagement flows eternal.


https://www.revealnews.org/article/what-california-can-learn-from-saudi-arabias-water-mystery/

Even in aquifers that CAN recharge at a reasonable rate, ground subsidence from over-drafting creates a secondary problem that makes a geologically significant permanent reduction in reservoir capacity. California's great Central Valley, where much of the US's most productive farming occurs, has seen significant permanent aquifer capacity reduction due to up to 30' of ground subsidence. Most has happened due to over-drafting from wells during drought years when surface water irrigation sources were reduced or cut-off. All to grow water-intensive crops like cotton in old lake-bed areas that are now naturally semi-desert. What a mess....

So we can conclude that not only has the danger of Peak Oil NOT passed, but the danger of Peak WATER has not passed. If anything, we probably have already hit Peak Water and are on the downhill side from a ground-water perspective.

The California Drought thread has a lot of posts on all of these issues.
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