[vtsnowedin]

The oil price is partly driven by speculators. A Trump win would set them all a tizzy thinking he will blunder into WW3.
Him winning will certainly not calm world markets.

[PeakOiler]

Looking at http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html, a price of around $47.86 was reached today. Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/energy reported $47.89 at 4:59pm. Plugging the numbers into the "What If" page of the workbook for a new high and closing price and resorting shows Pops has taken first place. (I moved up to #4. )

We'll see the "official" numbers from EIA this Wednesday, so stay tuned.

[davep]

This is probably the most hotly contested of all the various Oil Price Challenges we've had over the years. Generally it was just a question of forlornly watching SeaGypsy win again

[AgentR11]

Yeah, I think I'm going to end up missing the high substantially; I figured the low price would bankrupt a bunch of our shale and deep water; but I didn't expect it to brutalize the other national'ish producers like Venezuela, Nigeria, etc so quickly. Saudis and Ruskies have improved their market share a bit, but no where near as much as I think they wanted too. At $50, I don't think we lose any more producers, though there won't be much excitement about drilling new stuff at $50..

[EdwinSm]

If oil continues to rise, and rises above $50 then I should start dropping in table.

Usually, my guesses are way out so I was sort of worried that I have been in 3rd place for so long.

[PeakOiler]

I think AgentR11 and EdwinSm have done fantastic this year in this game for first time players.

This is a challenging game after all.

I'll post a new scorecard later today after I download the EIA's report and put in the official numbers. The EIA releases the report at 1:00 pm eastern time (US).

[PeakOiler]

Here's the scorecard:



Now IF the high price gets to $51.98, the close to $51.14, and the average is $36.90, I'll take first place!

[PeakOiler]

This week's scorecard shows salinski moving into second place after another new high price for the year was reported:

[davep]

We may be hitting 50 today.

[vtsnowedin]

For the sake of everyone's bank accounts (Rock doc excepted) I hope I stay down in the bottom of the rankings.

[PeakOiler]

My thoughts when I made my guesses was the price would increase in 2016, but to be honest, I didn't expect prices to get this high so soon in the year. I thought we wouldn't get to these levels until Nov-Dec. I kept hearing about the glut and how long it will last and keep downward pressure on prices throughout the year, and forecasts of oil going to 15-20/barrel, which I didn't necessarily believe (as reflected in my low guess.)

I think my average price guess is going to be too low by the end of the year. Perhaps my high price guess too.

[salinsky]

The following were among my goals and hopes for this year: To place in the top three in the 2016 Oil Price Challenge; to record two or more songs and have them played on the radio in at least two states in North America and one foreign country excluding Mexico and Canada; to hear a favorable finding from the Federal Appeals Court; to tour Europe before it is destroyed by the ...

Would like to see ROCKMAN put his guesses from now 'til year's end.

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('salinsky', 'T')he following were among my goals and hopes for this year: To place in the top three in the 2016 Oil Price Challenge; to record two or more songs and have them played on the radio in at least two states in North America and one foreign country excluding Mexico and Canada; to hear a favorable finding from the Federal Appeals Court; to tour Europe before it is destroyed by the ...

Would like to see ROCKMAN put his guesses from now 'til year's end.

[Subjectivist]

Looks like we briefly hit $50.20 today which might have triggered some kind of sell pre program in the trading computers. In under two hours the price fell a dollar and then recovered a little before ending at $49.33 for the day.

[PeakOiler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'L')ooks like we briefly hit $50.20 today which might have triggered some kind of sell pre program in the trading computers. In under two hours the price fell a dollar and then recovered a little before ending at $49.33 for the day.

[vtsnowedin]

Well if you are a speculator and bought say a million bucks worth in April at $38 / barrel and sold it today for $49.50 you have done pretty well even after the storage fees etc.

[PeakOiler]

The latest scorecard:

[PeakOiler]

We'll know tomorrow if salinsky takes 1st place and Pops second and me third. IF WTI is reported above ~$50.05.
Bloomberg and cx-portal are both showing above $50 at this time, but we'll have to wait and see what the EIA reports...

[PeakOiler]

Well I forgot that the EIA's report today only goes to June 6th, but Pops lead is thin. Next week's report should show oil over $50. It's over $51 today so far.