PeakOil is You
We are in a global recession
Re: We are in a global recession
by Outcast_Searcher » Sun 20 Mar 2016, 13:54:01
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'W')hat exactly is the difference between "ultra-low inflation" and just plain deflation again??
So you're on the internet. You're on a discussion thread making posts with your economic commentary.
But you don't know what deflation is, and can't look it up.
Now I think I know how doctors feel when patients (via ONLY intuition) try to diagnose themselves.
To your question:
I have seen very low rates of inflation called disinflation, although technically that means the rate of inflation is decreasing. With deflation, the currency is actually getting more valuable. The problem with that is it tends to turn people into hoarders on a broad scale, once they become confident the deflation is likely to continue. Japan has had this problem in the past decade. That behavior is exactly the opposite, of course of what high inflation causes, where people shun holding currency. (Taxable high interest rates tend to be outrun by the inflation in that scenario).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disinflation
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: We are in a global recession
by onlooker » Sun 10 Apr 2016, 13:21:22
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... orld-bank/
'No end in sight' for global economic misery, warns World Bank
'No end in sight' for global economic misery, warns World Bank
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: We are in a global recession
by ennui2 » Mon 11 Apr 2016, 12:06:19
"Shale is not coming back. The sweet spots have been drilled, necessary uber-financing is done."
Fame last words. Foot, meet mouth.
Fame last words. Foot, meet mouth.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: We are in a global recession
by Subjectivist » Mon 11 Apr 2016, 17:00:52
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '&')quot;Shale is not coming back. The sweet spots have been drilled, necessary uber-financing is done."
Fame last words. Foot, meet mouth.
Fame last words. Foot, meet mouth.
I tend to agree with Ennui on this one. Shale probably won't come roaring back to 2014 levels any time soon, however if they are still drilling so few hundred wells at these prices they will keep drilling and likely grow the drilling rate when prices inevitabley go back up. Might be fourth quarter this year I'd as late as 2020, but barring a total doomer collapse prices will go back up in the foreseeable future.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: We are in a global recession
by onlooker » Fri 29 Apr 2016, 16:39:40
A good article from the site Economic undertow. Here is link: http://www.economic-undertow.com/page/2/
I single out a pertinent excerpt "There is no overcoming entropy or declining purchasing power, only strategies to ameliorate the consequences and preserve resources/purchasing power for the future, along with some small component of institutional integrity. Managers fail to grasp the seriousness of our onrushing predicament: the destructive potential of declining resource availability/purchasing power is equal to- or greater than a nuclear exchange, the results are just as permanent. If managers aim to destroy this country, doing nothing- or more of the same is a good way to go about it! The establishment obsesses about money even as the real problem is a shortage of resources needed for our economy to produce the goods and services we expect. What needs to change are expectations. The money-system failures are symptoms of our resource shortfall, including declining petroleum prices and the widening circle of related industrial and finance insolvencies. Schemes that seek to maintain the status quo are certain to fail. Almost all of them are variations on the theme of bond-buying, dubious accounting and trickle down economics = robbery. Almost all of them depend upon central banks which have grounded themselves on their own policy contradictions. Absent change, financial accountability will enter through the back door … as central bankers and the their private sector clients are engulfed by the system collapse taking place under their feet. One way or the other, finance claims will be brought into alignment with purchasing power. The hardest path is the annihilation of claims along with finance at the same time."
I single out a pertinent excerpt "There is no overcoming entropy or declining purchasing power, only strategies to ameliorate the consequences and preserve resources/purchasing power for the future, along with some small component of institutional integrity. Managers fail to grasp the seriousness of our onrushing predicament: the destructive potential of declining resource availability/purchasing power is equal to- or greater than a nuclear exchange, the results are just as permanent. If managers aim to destroy this country, doing nothing- or more of the same is a good way to go about it! The establishment obsesses about money even as the real problem is a shortage of resources needed for our economy to produce the goods and services we expect. What needs to change are expectations. The money-system failures are symptoms of our resource shortfall, including declining petroleum prices and the widening circle of related industrial and finance insolvencies. Schemes that seek to maintain the status quo are certain to fail. Almost all of them are variations on the theme of bond-buying, dubious accounting and trickle down economics = robbery. Almost all of them depend upon central banks which have grounded themselves on their own policy contradictions. Absent change, financial accountability will enter through the back door … as central bankers and the their private sector clients are engulfed by the system collapse taking place under their feet. One way or the other, finance claims will be brought into alignment with purchasing power. The hardest path is the annihilation of claims along with finance at the same time."
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: We are in a global recession
by ennui2 » Fri 29 Apr 2016, 18:29:32
"The money-system failures are symptoms of our resource shortfall, including declining petroleum prices "
This is an oxymoron.
This is an oxymoron.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: We are in a global recession
by vox_mundi » Thu 05 May 2016, 12:25:36
Stanley Druckenmiller thinks the world is heading for a debt-fueled disaster
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')tanley Druckenmiller, head of Duquesne Capital, thinks that the macroeconomy is looking disastrous and there are two sources for the coming problems.
Druckenmiller thinks that leverage is far too high, saying that central banks and China have allowed for these excesses to continue and it's setting us up for danger.
He highlighted that net cash flow has gone negative while net debt is still climbing at an unprecedented rate. He also said that instead of investing in growth, companies are adding the debt for financial engineering like buybacks and M&A.
The corporate sector is stuck in a "vicious cycle" of chasing earnings and adding debt, he said.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')tanley Druckenmiller, head of Duquesne Capital, thinks that the macroeconomy is looking disastrous and there are two sources for the coming problems.
Druckenmiller thinks that leverage is far too high, saying that central banks and China have allowed for these excesses to continue and it's setting us up for danger.
He highlighted that net cash flow has gone negative while net debt is still climbing at an unprecedented rate. He also said that instead of investing in growth, companies are adding the debt for financial engineering like buybacks and M&A.
The corporate sector is stuck in a "vicious cycle" of chasing earnings and adding debt, he said.
Druckenmiller Loads Up on Gold, Saying Bull Market Exhausted
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')tan Druckenmiller, the billionaire investor with one of the best long-term track records in money management, said the bull market in stocks has "exhausted itself" and that gold is his largest currency allocation.
As bankers experiment with "the absurd notion of negative interest rates," Druckenmiller said, he’s wagering on gold. “Some regard it as a metal, we regard it as a currency and it remains our largest currency allocation," he said, without naming the metal.
Gold futures climbed 20 percent this year in the best start since 2006, helped by speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will be slow to tighten monetary policy amid global risks to growth and as lending rates in the euro area and Japan fell below zero.
On the Fed, Druckenmiller said the central bank has borrowed more "from future consumption than ever before."
“By most objective measures, we are deep into the longest period ever of excessively easy monetary policies,” he said. “Despite finally ending QE, the Fed’s radical dovishness continues today. By most objective measures, we are deep into the longest period ever of excessively easy monetary policies. In other words, and quite ironically, this is the least ‘data dependent’ Fed we have had in history.”
Druckenmiller said “volatility in global equity markets over the past year, which often precedes a major trend change, suggests that their risk/reward is negative without substantially lower prices and/or structural reform. Don’t hold your breath for the latter.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci
Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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