[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')dam, dude, do you seriously want us to believe you read the Hirsch report? It never mentioned EV's. Didn't discuss consumer driving habits, discretionary or not. Was only concerned with manufactured liquid-fuel replacements.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A')dam, dude, do you seriously want us to believe you read the Hirsch report? It never mentioned EV's. Didn't discuss consumer driving habits, discretionary or not. Was only concerned with manufactured liquid-fuel replacements.

[ROCKMAN]

Adam - "And who might the future price guessing specialist be at your company?" That would be my BILLONARE owner. And if we want to propose drilling a well this year we have to run the NPV at $20/bbl flat. And then the project has to also payout in 18 months. How good is he? Did I mention he's a BILLIONARE who owns one non-oil company 100% that's netting over $800 million per year?

Yes...the Golden Rule: he that owns the gold makes the rules. And while a truly nice guy he rules with an iron fist. BTW did I mention he's given the Rockman and his cohorts $250 million to go after weakened oil companies? And he has a couple of other BILLIONARE families that will raise our kitty to $1 BILLION if we find some really big cripples to go after.

And while that sounds like a nice problem to have it's also a lot of pressure: it has been extremely difficult to find properties that fit our business model. Buying production cheap won't do it: there has to be significant upside to add to those producing reserves. And if we don't acquire enough properties he's lay us all off and shut the company down.

It won't be personal...just business. LOL.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A')dam - "And who might the future price guessing specialist be at your company?" That would be my BILLONARE owner. And if we want to propose drilling a well this year we have to run the NPV at $20/bbl flat.

[tita]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', 'w')hich major domestic auto manufacturer will give us consumers a 1000HP street car to guzzle gas that your success has made so inexpensive?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '[')img]http://cdn.wonderfulengineering.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/worlds_most_gargantuan_diesel_engine_zwhbf.jpg[/img]
Tita, he has small hands. But that aside, the above is a Wärtsilä RT-flex96C, the world’s largest and most powerful diesel engine. Soon also to be a relic, this monster drives ships, still the most efficient form of transport today. Until sails take over.

[vtsnowedin]

At 108,000 horse power that will really move a load but filling the fuel tank at 250 Tons per day would be a bit of a strain on my wallet.
By the way it burns heavy bunker oil not diesel.
Ohh and I want to see the crane that picks that baby up and sets it into the engine room of a container ship. it weighs 2300 tonnes.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'A')t 108,000 horse power that will really move a load but filling the fuel tank at 250 Tons per day would be a bit of a strain on my wallet.
By the way it burns heavy bunker oil not diesel.
Ohh and I want to see the crane that picks that baby up and sets it into the engine room of a container ship. it weighs 2300 tonnes.

[slackercruster]

OP...dunno. Only time will tell. Renewables don't account for all the chemical uses of crude. Even if we didn't need crude we have lots of other areas knocking at out door for problems. Our model we have built our world on seems to be broken and the world as we know it may be headed off a cliff irrespective of peak oil.

No pensions, fewer jobs with benefits. Gigs, freelancing and winging it by a growing army of freelancers, temps, contractors, part-timers, day laborers, micro-entrepreneurs, gig-preneurs, solo-preneurs, contingent labor, perma-lancers and perma-temps.

Even if the job offers benefits, the high cost deductible for med care is prohibitive. Many of our future jobs will be taken by robots. The young workforce that is coming up are overloaded with college loans that they can hardly pay off. I don't pretend to have a crystal ball, but with an ever growing population, higher living expenses and less jobs...something has to give.

Many of us are already drinking recycled toilet water. Do we really need more people in the world?

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'A')t 108,000 horse power that will really move a load but filling the fuel tank at 250 Tons per day would be a bit of a strain on my wallet.
By the way it burns heavy bunker oil not diesel.
Ohh and I want to see the crane that picks that baby up and sets it into the engine room of a container ship. it weighs 2300 tonnes.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'T')here were, broadly speaking, 2 Peak Oil camps:

1. Oil output will decline too fast before other energy sources can come online and transition (timing crash)

2. Oil output will decline by too much for any other energy source to economically take its place EVER (EROEI crash)

Are we now past these dangers?

[Subjectivist]

Pops, good post. It might do us all good to remember in the shank's mare world obesity was not an epidemic condition.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'O')il hasn't become renewable and renewables haven't replaced oil so I think the answer is no.

The exact rate of the depletion of legacy fields and decline of individual wells is kinda grey and likely variable but somewhere between 4-6% of legacy production is lost each year - that much new production must be added to offset decline.

That is the equivalent of all fracked oil developed over the last few years. Or a KSA every 2 years.
...Just to replace declines in existing wells.

Here is a picture:

The bar chart illustrates this perfectly.
The Eagle Ford added 49kbbl/day of "new production" from "constantly improved methods getting more oil out of old formations" in the period.
But the next bar, "Legacy Production Change" more than offsets new production.
The net change then is negative.
The area chart shows the point where increases changed to decreases.

World production (due to the standard PO reason of too little resource rather than too little profit due to a glut) would look exactly the same.

Peaked.

(Again, this chart shows insufficient new production due to previous overproduction and low price, but when the chart is of the world and the reason for the change is geologic rather than economic it will look exactly the same.)

The exact date of peak oil is really the only important thing. Up to now we've experienced a typical natural resource market of see-sawing supply and demand where production always increases, eventually. We got a taste of "scarcity" last decade when additional demand pressured supply to keep pace.

But post peak it won't be new users aspiring to a switch from rickshaw to a Buick that will be driving a slowly increasing supply. It will be existing users, desiring to maintain existing habits and lifestyles in the face of declining supply. That switch from increasing to declining will be pretty unmistakable. All these little arguments about API and net energy will seem pretty silly at that point I think because we'll pay a lot to keep up old habits.

I can't see the future. But something will certainly take the place of oil unless oil turns out to be abiotic or humans go extinct. Might be Dark Energy, or Mr. Fusion... or it might be Shanks Mare. Dunno.

[ROCKMAN]

Yes---Pops does good chart. And I recall one I think he posted a while back shows the situation even more clearly: it showed production split into separate year bands. It showed the trajectory of not only the high decline rates of new wells but also the lower but none the less predictable decline of "heritage production".

Pops - Got that one handy?

[Pops]

Thanks T. I'm a visual guy fer sure. I spent a day last week working for a bay area transit system drawing those little stick figures to illustrate to folks novel ideas like offering your bus seat to pregnant women and geriatrics. LOL

Rock, you're thinking about something like this from Dennis (posted at POB)?


Or this from Rune on Bakken (@ FractionalFlow)


Red Queen vs Norway


They show that all wells deplete but especially the ones that are "special" like tight and offshore. Once you run out of profitable spots to drill depletion takes over.

Which is why (as you know better than me) the response to the question in the title is "no, the danger is not past because peak is not past"


Or, since "depletion never sleeps" it might even be that the actual point where we run out of enough new profitable places to drill is occurring right now but is "hidden" in the excess production brought about by the high prices of the last few years.

Wouldn't that be a kick? New production slows and consumption increases and the glut goes away. Then the price starts to rise and new drilling resumes. But turns out that "legacy production" has fallen too far and there are not enough new places to drill to catch back up... maybe not enough even to keep up. Peak hidden in a glut.

[Revi]

Here's Ron Patterson's latest post on Peak Oil Barrel. It looks like Peak Oil is Back!

http://peakoilbarrel.com/peak-oil-back/

[ROCKMAN]

Thanks Pops- Exactly; folks should look closely at you Bakken curve: The wells producing today will decline from about 875,000 bopd to 100,000 bopd in just 4 years. That's an 89% decline. Any production above that level will have to come from wells not yet drilled. And it’s rather difficult to be very optimistic about that future. Again the prime characteristic of all fracture production: high initial rates followed by very high decline rate. All curves from all the other trends show the identical dynamic.

For years all the cornucopians had to hang on to was the high rate of new drilling. Notice we hear less and less from them as each month passes. Those days are obviously gone now. And how long before they return is anyone’s guess. Last cycle took more than 25 years.