[onlooker]

I think then in keeping with the original post, that this new orientation post and during collapse phases will will encompass besides what Ibon just mentioned in terms of a deference and reverence for Mother Nature, it also will contain this devotion and self sacrifice. Because that also characterizes pre-modern societies, how the people cared for each other other and gave of themselves for others and the community. Precisely, because of the impermanent vagaries and misfortunes of the world in the past, people had empathy and compassion. Nowdays, with little true solid connections people are left with caricatures and stereotypes of others. Not a good reference point for compassion and empathy. And so this era characterized by avoidance and skirting of hardships of a significant portion of humanity will give way to one more typical of this planet. Future times will create both courageous and accepting of tragedy type people but also more caring and empathetic ones.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'I')t just seems logical that a reduction in material dominance through consequences leaves a society no choice but to pursue a more spiritual path.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
There is no real difference. We forget how not normal it is to have an assumption of stability and a long healthy life. Normal in the time of Buddha was plagues, crop failures, starvation, wars, etc. There was not much of a global distribution of goods or services, no antibiotics, no vaccinations, not much sanitation, etc. Normal was quite impermanent. It wasn't hard for most folks back then to understand the impermanent nature of being when mortality rates where high. If limits of growth and human overshoot bring back the historical norm of living with uncertainties then right there we have a starting point of a new cultural orientation.

Something related. Technology has promised a better future, this concept of progress. We have several generations now praying to the technology god that space colonization is just around the bend, that science will cure all disease, etc. etc.
Clearly we are approaching some correction in this blind faith in technology.

Religions, born in the past in these uncertain times when we did not dominate the material world with technology, still had this concept of progress and something better but it was in the form of heaven or enlightenment, the coming of the messiah, etc.

This concept of something better coming whether it be technology or religious, seems to be pretty deep in the collective hard wired psyche of humans.

When the limits of growth and the consequences of human overshoot no longer enable society to have such blind faith in a technological world of progress, where does a society then turn to in order to gets its fix on something better coming in the future? Will not the pendulum swing once again toward spiritual pursuits, ones relationship with god or with our mother earth? And if this takes place in a trashed biosphere then certainly the healing of nature and existing in harmony with nature has a very good chance of being an integral part these spiritual pursuits.

It is important to clarify one thing. I am not advocating this. This is not something I want. I am a secular atheist. Period. Ennui for example thinks I am inventing this narrative as some way to sugar coat and cope with the hard times coming. What I am stating here has nothing to do with that. It just seems logical that a reduction in material dominance through consequences leaves a society no choice but to pursue a more spiritual path.

Clearly all of the existing religions we have today laid down their foundation of thought during a time when humans lived within carrying capacity and the biosphere was an invisible whole that did not make itself known because we hadn’t yet trashed it. No surprise that not a single religion on the planet today has tenants around caring for our planet and not breeding or consuming beyond its carrying capacity. A healthy biosphere is an invisible one as it was in the times when all our great religions were formed. No script was wasted on caring for something that was not even seen!

This time around it will be different. Our biosphere will be visible in its stressed state due to the imbalances we caused. It is therefore quite logical that a society moving toward more spiritual pursuits as a result of the failure of materialism will now include a more comprehensive dogma that includes caring for our mother earth.

I think this is very likely…… not because I want it to be so 

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'I') think then in keeping with the original post, that this new orientation post and during collapse phases will will encompass besides what Ibon just mentioned in terms of a deference and reverence for Mother Nature, it also will contain this devotion and self sacrifice. Because that also characterizes pre-modern societies, how the people cared for each other other and gave of themselves for others and the community. Precisely, because of the impermanent vagaries and misfortunes of the world in the past, people had empathy and compassion. Nowdays, with little true solid connections people are left with caricatures and stereotypes of others. Not a good reference point for compassion and empathy. And so this era characterized by avoidance and skirting of hardships of a significant portion of humanity will give way to one more typical of this planet. Future times will create both courageous and accepting of tragedy type people but also more caring and empathetic ones.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')
Since there was no "global distribution" then, then there is obviously a "real difference," unless one can assume that the population then was as large as it is today, and that there is another land that the human race can occupy once the planet can no longer sustain it.

Also, wasn't Buddhism itself a "new cultural orientation"? And what happened after that emerged?

In addition, isn't industrial civilization itself a "new cultural orientation"? And isn't the idea of hope in technology and progress the opposite of being a "doomer"?

Aren't ideas of heaven, enlightenment, etc., some of which are found in philosophies like Buddhism also cultural orientations? And didn't ideas of "mother Earth" and spirituality from the pre-Axial age serve as some of the bases for mainstream religions of subsequent periods?

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '
')
It should be noted that several survivalists and doomers have similar views, but limitations in such views may be driven by the realities of localization. Thus, one may be part of small, sustainable communities, but might not be able to help others in various circumstances. In some cases, the survival of a community might even involve attacking another.

Thus, we see combinations of acceptance and refusal of suffering and death, compassion and violent action, etc.

[Timo]

Ibon's reference to puppies dying is as good a place as any to make this case, but before i get started on that, excellent posts and comments, everyone! Your genuine thoughtful questions and contributions make this place worthwhile.

OK, here goes. Everyone who's bothered to read and post comment in this thread all seem to be in agreement on several things, like our vulnerability to the OP, and the cause and effect of humanity's relationship with our planet. We're all headed to near extinction. Agreed. ???

That seems to be where our collective agreement ends. Ibon sees a new beginning for humanity based on a spiritual convergence with the planet's resources. That may be stating his position and beliefs too simply, but i believe the basis is essentially correct. If not, please correct my mistake.

Many others in recent posts have questioned humanity's ability to spiritually change based on their new environment, with references to poverty and crime, and starvation and religion, all tending to negate the presumption that people will change their ways to ensure their survival. I completely agree with Ibon's belief that such transformation cannot, and most definitely will not happen in any short amount of time. Cultural transformations through religions, relationships, trade, and even the acceptance of something different from BAU will take generations, if not hundreds of years to achieve. I disagree with Ibon that such a change in humanity will ever occur, and this is why: Humanity is rendering this planet uninhabitable. Period. The new beginning for humanity will become the lowest point in the physical existence in human history. 90% of life on this planet will no longer exist, and it will be the fault of humanity. Humans are making this planet unsuitable for much of any life at all. I fail to see the basis for any new spiritual beginning for humanity under such circumstances. Life for any survivors will be a continuous struggle for survival. If anything, humanity will fall back to ancient beliefs as a means to explain the inexplicable. Life will continue to be hell for each and every human, and each and every mammal, and each and every bird and insect, and fish that is able to survive. It will be a new beginning, all right, but that beginning will use the beliefs that humanity employed thousands of years ago. Ibon believes humans will learn from our current trajectory to develop a new relationship with the planet. I do not. The state of the planet we're headed toward will not afford humanity that luxury. There will be a point in our future where our past and the present will be effective disconnected.

I will not lay down and accept that reality as inevitable. It might be inevitable, but i will fight against it as long as i live. I will not give up on the here and now, and place my faith in future generations coming to a new realization about what their ancestors did wrong. You and i are their ancestors. We are responsible for their future. We should try to leave them a future worth living in. We should try to leave every creature on earth a future worth living in. Accepting the end, and looking beyond is giving up, and abandoning the human spirit to survive in the here and now.

I acknowledge that this is probably an impossible belief, but it is less so than any other religion. Having a belief in humanity is more concrete than a belief in an omnipotent deity. Or any future reconciliation humans may conjure up to replace out current beliefs.

[ennui2]

It's true that if we didn't have AGW to contend with and you just wiped a huge swath of humanity off the planet that you could have some "world without us" sprout up. The world would reforest, rewild, etc... Would be pretty nice. In that kind of scenario I could envision a situation as Ibon describes where people gather around the campfire to discuss the sins of past man while they practice the best earth stewardship they can.

I think in a Cormac McCarthy world where everything is dead and dying and people are just scavenging the ruins and eating whatever hardy life-forms can withstand the devastation, that people will be so f*cking depressed over how sh*tty the world is that there's no way to characterize such a future in positive terms, regardless of whether they've had some inner epiphany or not.

If you keep moving forward far enough for the earth to manage to heal, assuming it does so before the sun expands and burns the oceans off, then I doubt humanity as we know it would still be around. We'll have evolved or devolved into something else.

I find that the farther and farther I look into the future, the less relevant any of that is to my day-to-day existence. I mean, I'd like to think in deep-time, but I just can't take any of what these future scenarios have to offer back to the present and do anything constructive with it to make my life brighter or more meaningful.

The biggest problems we have to face are within the next century. Beyond that it recedes into science-fiction territory and is, at best, a bed-time story distraction.

[onlooker]

Well, I do not think our conversations all have to be utilitarian. We can and some of us do simply likely to engage in interesting dialog for its own sake. Having said that, I find Timo's post the most relevant. This is because he is sound the alarm about the present. Every bit more damage we do now and henceforth, is just denuding the Earth more and making it less likely to be able to harbor life on it. So, thus this conversation is very relevant at least for us here. Can we mitigate the terrible assault on Earth? That is a good question and maybe I will start a new topic on it. Ways to slow down the devastation we are inflicting on Earth. I am not sure I know the best way or ways. I also feel considering our huge population and thirst for the "modern" lifestyle that slowing and much less stopping this assault is unlikely. So stay tuned as I will start this new topic in Environment forum.

[Ibon]

Just a couple of comments to add to the last couple of posts. I would like to address Timo's belief that 90% of life on the planet will perish and Ennui's image of Cormac McCarthy's distopian landscape. These positions are truly narratives that you guys envision. At best reinforced by climate scientists who most probably are correct in the dire warnings they publish on the science of our warming planet. Further reinforced by visiting this site and others. And your knowledge of how intractable is the status quo, your understanding of over population and the trend lines moving forward. Very compelling narrative. I appreciate Ennui's comment that the further we move into the future the less predictable, the more like science fiction is our conjecture. More important to focus on the here and now and short term manifestations.

I explore this topic a bit differently. The decades I have spent as an amateur naturalist on top of the years of my formal education in ecology has resulted that I have spent thousands of hours in natural areas observing nature. The past 8 years often in the company of specialists who visit Mount Totumas delving into orchids, beetles, frogs, birds etc. From South Florida to Panama I have seen what happens when a disturbed landscape is left alone, how quickly nature, pushed off to the sidelines, rapidly reclaims former habitat. This resilience is nothing short of spectacular whether we are speaking about reforesting pastures in montane tropics or coastal mangroves reclaiming former habitat.

At the location where I am here in Panama within 80 miles you go from coastal Pacific up to 3000 meters in the mountains and back down to the Carribean coast on the Atlantic. The biodiversity of just trees on these 80 miles is typical of most tropical locations. thousands of species. During the last ice age these mountains were glaciated and today in the cloud forest there are a few dozen "relic" species still holding on from these former cold periods. This is just one small example I am describing but it is relevant to most natural landscapes on our planet. The speed to which habitats regenerate when left alone varies but regenerate they do and astonishingly fast. I have witnessed this first hand for over 40 years, this is not something I read about. It is visceral for me. Does this influence my conjectures about our future biosphere? You bet it does..

Climate scientists are getting better and better at forecasting. But they are not terrestrial ecologists. There are too many disciplines required for anyone to accurately predict the ramifications of climate change on our biosphere in terms of how natural ecosystems are going to adapt and respond. You guys have to take a moment and understand this when you draw these conclusions of gray distopian landscapes and 90% of life on the planet disappearing.

Just remember that when we discuss the upcoming correction of human overshoot where we fall back to a billion or so humans on the planet that this will happen in a blink of an eye geologically speaking and even in human terms this will be fast, a couple of generations at the most. When today human landscapes cover 40% of the planets surface including all our crops what is going to happen to all this former human landscape in this short period of time when we contract back down to a billion. Ennui sees Cormac McCarthy's gray lunar landscape and Timo, what do you see? Maybe 6 trillion turkey vultures and house sparrows? I don't know...haha

We are now seeing extinction rates accelerate exponentially exactly right before huge swaths of landscapes are going to be abandoned once the correction starts. Like many I wish and deeply hope that the correction happens sooner rather than later for the quicker we correct the greater the reserve of biodiversity that is still here to recolonize abandoned landscapes. If I was some crazy misanthropic bitter pathologist and could press that button today and get the ball rolling I would without a moments hesitation. But that is the making of a science fiction narrative and just arm chair fantasy. The way this will unfold we don't know.

The glass of biodiversity will still be half full or three quarters or one quarter full when the contraction and correction goes into full swing.

The humans who pass through the bottle neck will move about a much altered landscape but one where they will see regeneration happening all around them. A warmer planet yes but with all the elevation gradiants and micro climates and cold ocean currents that modify local temperatures this will not be one homogenized lunar landscape. The humans who will still be here will be profoundly affected. Maybe we wont make it through and you guys are right we will go extinct. From my observations of disturbed and intact habitat since over 40 years I highly doubt that. Too much variation out there. And we haven't even spoken one word about the variation within human cultures, the plasticity of human culture, the power of humans to adapt, to drop the mantle of Kudzu Ape and re invent themselves.

I am going to guess at something. You guys are too fixed in staring at the dysfunctional status quo every day and projecting forward based on the unbearable stupidity that you confront every day. This is what is clouding your narratives.

Or?

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'T')hese positions are truly narratives that you guys envision

[Timo]

Interesting and well thought-out perspective, Ibon. You actually hit on a point that i wanted to bring up, that being that all of our perspectives fundamentally depend on our education, and our present cultural and physical environment. Being on Mt. Totumas, you have a very unique perspective on the resilience of nature that the rest of us do not have at our disposal. We can go outside and examine the insects and birds in our back yards and parks, but the ecology of an urban park, and the ecology of La Amistad do have just a couple of differences. That's an apples to oranges comparison. From your vantage point, much of life will survive because you are presently surrounded by infinite examples of natural, harmonic biodiversity. Most of the rest of us here at PO do not have the benefit of that same vantage point, thus we see different realities emerging in our future. We extrapolate what we see in the man-made world. You extrapolate what you see in the man-less world. Left to its own devices, the world will continue in its own natural way. I hope you are right that the OP die-off will be monumental, and will occur in the blink of an eye, but from my vantage point, i don't see that happening. In the world where humans are surrounded by other humans, not much of anything good will come from that eventual scenario. The die-off will be a long and very painful epoch in human history.

On the other hand, maybe we're both right. You may be right that enough humans will die off rapidly enough to give the planet a chance to heal itself before humanity burns it to a crisp. I may be right in that conditions will be so bad for humanity that any spiritual reincarnation with the world will become a mute point. The truth is that neither one of us knows for sure if either of us will eventually be right. Who knows? Only time will tell, and i hope i'm not around long enough to find out.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
Yes all these milestones influenced culture. As will the consequences of human overshoot which I am suggesting maybe quite a major milestone. Culture evolves as a continuum, it never arrives at an end game..... until extinction.

We have discussed this before and so has JMG over on his blog. He believes as do many others that this is just another in a series of civilizations that ascends and then goes into decline. I do agree that the dynamics are unfolding pretty much the same as past civilizations although I do see a difference in that all past civilizations declined in a geographic area and a few centuries later we found another ascending.

This may happen again but the global nature of this decline, the breadth and depth of the population correction, the scale of the human infrastructure on the planet, the long lasting legacy of climate change etc...., all of these aspects are quite unique and assuming, maybe a big assumption, that science and technology is able to keep a historical record of events, then we really will have a thread that will follow through the decline and have a big impact on the human culture that follows. To what degree this represents a spiritual renaissance is an open question. It is pretty hard to argue that the consequences wont be biblical in terms of plunging hundreds of millions into annihilation. That is a pretty rich soup for a renaissance to emerge out of I would think.......

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
I agree. A mixed bag. Especially during the correction. The generations that plunge into the correction toward some eventual equilibrium cannot look forward to much peace and security.

Most of what I propose on this thread does focus more on the plateau we very well may glide on to after the volatile correction. That is partially why I may be often misunderstood as being overly optimistic about the transition being painless.

Let me assure all of you reading this..... those of us or our prodigy that move through the volatile correction phase of human overshoot will be experiencing unimaginable hardships. Will it still be a life worth living? Of course it will. Intense. What wont kill you will make you very much alive

[ralfy]

Thanks for sharing that. We can probably add some more points:

It's possible that the view of death and suffering as integral to existence is connected to the dystopian and to doom. That is, just as human beings come and go, so can the human race. Just as one accepts death and suffering as such, one also accepts the possibility of extinction.

In a similar fashion, one can view existence as the opposite, i.e., a rebirth, etc. But we realize that such an existence, whether it is personal or that of the human race, is also temporary. In the long run, the default is the first view.

In order to support the latter view, humanity has to have some sort of hope, and that includes seeing the resilience of nature, the idea that even after catastrophes, both nature and human survivors will thrive, and focusing on the short term and the local (e.g., wildlife thriving in certain parts of the world, a "glut" in oil production, renewable energy as a "game changer"). But all of these are temporary and do not consider issues on a global scale. Given that, the only thing that individuals and small communities can do is hold on to that hope. But that doesn't reverse the first view.

Finally, uncertainty works both ways, which means we might imagine that future will not be as bad, or that we may be underestimating the effects of multiple crises amplifying each other. I sense that the first way is connected to the first view and the second way to the second view.

[onlooker]

Great analysis Ralfy. I like this thread because it is pertinent to the present and to the future. I am of the mind that we have lacked in much of our history a genuine compassion for all our kind. We seemed fixated on identifying with a group and so we tend to underappreciate those from other groups. Another hope is despite the menacing nature of what awaits us, the remaining humanity will coalesce given that we all without exception will be affected.

[Timo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'I') am going to guess at something. You guys are too fixed in staring at the dysfunctional status quo every day and projecting forward based on the unbearable stupidity that you confront every day. This is what is clouding your narratives.

Or?