[Mishka]

Hasn't it been wonderful to buy any book you could dream of an Amazon. Or how about a slice of Michael Jackson face toast on E-bay. When PO fuel prices bite harder, how many people will wear the 2, 3 or more, fold price increases in shipping to their door. It will back to the local shops. A hell of a lot of jobs in distribution and IT will disappear aswell.

[Jack]

Maybe.

But what if Amazon started selling more e-books, which you could buy for a fourth (or less) the cost of a physical book...could download immediately...and had no shipping costs?

[Leanan]

I think Mishka is right. Damn, but I'm going to miss the Internet. Amazon.com, sure, but even more, Google. Being able to hop online and find out almost anything you might want to know. No more going to the library or looking it up in a dusty, out-of-date almanac. Whether you're arguing with your friend about who won Super Bowl XXX or looking for blueprints on how they build highways in Wisconsin, it's online somewhere.

I suspect we don't realize how much energy it takes to keep the Internet going. Our own computers don't use a lot of electricity. But the server farms that are the backbone of the net do. Some of them have their own power plants. One reason for the natural gas/electricity shortage in the northeast is the explosive growth of the Internet. (The other is the increased use of air-conditioning in summer. Which may also be partly computer-related.)

[avo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mishka', 'W')hen PO fuel prices bite harder, how many people will wear the 2, 3 or more, fold price increases in shipping to their door. It will back to the local shops.

[lowem]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mishka', 'H')asn't it been wonderful to buy any book you could dream of an Amazon. Or how about a slice of Michael Jackson face toast on E-bay. When PO fuel prices bite harder, how many people will wear the 2, 3 or more, fold price increases in shipping to their door. It will back to the local shops. A hell of a lot of jobs in distribution and IT will disappear aswell.

[lotrfan55345]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lowem', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mishka', 'H')asn't it been wonderful to buy any book you could dream of an Amazon. Or how about a slice of Michael Jackson face toast on E-bay. When PO fuel prices bite harder, how many people will wear the 2, 3 or more, fold price increases in shipping to their door. It will back to the local shops. A hell of a lot of jobs in distribution and IT will disappear aswell.

[lowem]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lotrfan55345', 'H')ow about a local e-storm, doesn't amazon have to ship all the way from the US?

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he cost of shipping to the local shops will also rise.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', ' ')

I think we will eventually have to move back to this kind of system. That means not only no eBay, but no Wal-Marts out in the middle of nowhere.

[strider3700]

THe costs of shipping from amazon to my house will increase. the cost of shipping to the local stores will increase but probably less. The cost of getting me from my house to the local store will increase as well though.

It currently costs me $2.23 to drive into town and back. So add in the fact that I have no idea whats actually at my local stores until I get there but I know instantly if amazon has it and when it will arrive at my door and I think it will need to be a big increase in price before I give up on online shopping

[MD]

Perhaps there will be emerging solutions from transportation logistics people as economies change.

As an example:
Let's say there is a great reduction is movement of goods due to a shrikage of economies.
Let's speculate then that the idled warehousing capacity is reconfigured so that a specific household is assigned a bin at the closest facility.
The user could order goods online, that will accummulate in their bin until the next scheduled trip.
Efficiences could be built into the transportation network all the way up the line.

That's just an off-the-cuff speculation, my point being that as circumstances change, markets will adapt. Trying to predict just how has made and broken many a fortune.

[Librarianne]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mishka', 'H')asn't it been wonderful to buy any book you could dream of an Amazon. Or how about a slice of Michael Jackson face toast on E-bay. When PO fuel prices bite harder, how many people will wear the 2, 3 or more, fold price increases in shipping to their door. It will back to the local shops. A hell of a lot of jobs in distribution and IT will disappear aswell.

[Librarianne]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'N')o more going to the library or looking it up in a dusty, out-of-date almanac.

[Leanan]

The problem, IMO, is hours. It's ridiculous. Almost everyone works these days, yet a lot of businesses and services are still only open 9-5. When no one can go, because they're at work.

Anyway, I like shopping and looking stuff up at, say, 3am. When it's convenient for me. The librarians around here are very good, and you can call them with simple questions. (A couple of them are friends of mine, in fact.) But I rarely go to the library. Don't have the time, they don't have the selection, and they're in a bad area of town. Park in the library parking lot if you want your car broken into. There was also a rape in the parking lot a few years ago, and there have been numerous muggings as well.

[Librarianne]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'T')he problem, IMO, is hours. It's ridiculous. Almost everyone works these days, yet a lot of businesses and services are still only open 9-5. When no one can go, because they're at work.

Anyway, I like shopping and looking stuff up at, say, 3am. When it's convenient for me. The librarians around here are very good, and you can call them with simple questions. (A couple of them are friends of mine, in fact.) But I rarely go to the library. Don't have the time, they don't have the selection, and they're in a bad area of town. Park in the library parking lot if you want your car broken into. There was also a rape in the parking lot a few years ago, and there have been numerous muggings as well.

[emersonbiggins]

And, also, don't forget that those libraries are money-pits, just like police and fire protection, public transit and public education. You know that if something can't turn a profit, it just isn't worth having .

[I_Like_Plants]

The libraries are worth having, just put some armed guards around that one in the bad neighborhood and tell 'em the law will look the other way if they off a few baddies a week.

[lawnchair]

My prediction for e-commerce: it has a future. The model will change, though.

In early 1900s across rural America, the Sears catalog was the "e-commerce" of its day. While they would send you things by US Mail, people often ordered items and picked them up at their agency outlet in town. This outlet often was on the railroad, with a boxcar siding. Shipping was cheaper if you picked it up at a store.

While not as fast as the e-commerce we've known, I think the "make an order, pick it up" system will have merit, both over the "everything delivered in little UPS boxes" model and the "multiple millions of items in each walmart" model.

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hile not as fast as the e-commerce we've known, I think the "make an order, pick it up" system will have merit, both over the "everything delivered in little UPS boxes" model and the "multiple millions of items in each walmart" model.

[gg3]

Lawnchair's kinda' on target here.

Don't forget that the great advantage of the UPS model is, the goods come to your door, you do not drive around to get them.

Delivery by truck is far more efficient than individuals in cars.

The only inefficiency in UPS (etc.) at present is that not every house has deliveries every day, but some deliveries have to be made each day, therefore the truck routing is inefficient.

The obvious solution to this will be to consolidate deliveries. UPS and each of the other couriers will come through a couple of days per week.

And if the delivery hours are inconvenient for your schedule, you'll rent a private mailbox (private companies that have something similar to postal boxes but ship/recieve to/from all carriers) in town for about $15 per month, where all of your mail and packages will go, and where you can pick up whenever you're in town.

You call them on the phone and they tell you what's in your box and what packages have come, and you don't have to go fetch unless the box is full or there are packages. These services already exist, I've been using them for twenty years, and the quality of service makes it worth the price by a long mile.