Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
Post a reply

Re: The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 17 Mar 2016, 13:27:30

e - I agree: Hubbert would verbally bitch slap all those peakers that misrepresent his work. OTOH it was the Rockman that coined the "POD" and by a wide margin it was the leakers that resisted it. Primarily because it relagated the date of PO to the trash pile. It also argues against cherry picking individual components in order win debates over the general dynamics.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS
Top

Re: The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 17 Mar 2016, 17:05:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'O')ne important point to consider is the population that feeds on the oil:

http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/201 ... k-oil.html


How about a quote from someplace other than a blog, from someone who has previously proven that they really don't understand even the most basic things of peak oil?

http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/201 ... ncept.html
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 17 Mar 2016, 17:10:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', 'e')nnui- I agree. I prefer the term "Roller Coaster Oil Dynamic". Much more realistic to the view I have from the market of this ressource actually.



Now that the US is proving that bell shaped curves aren't worth anything, I've been advocating an idea very similar to yours, based on the idea that as resource after resource is developed in sequence, we need to be talking about the number of ups and down of the roller coaster, this single up and down having been completely blown away by the US in just half a decade.

I am recommending a sine function to describe oil production, based on the number of resources yet to develop. 4 seems to be the right number so far, but it could be less if some are combined, or more if there is the same kind of sweetspot effect as showed up in the shales.

Image
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

Unread postby americandream » Thu 17 Mar 2016, 17:43:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tita', 'e')nnui- I agree. I prefer the term "Roller Coaster Oil Dynamic". Much more realistic to the view I have from the market of this ressource actually.



Now that the US is proving that bell shaped curves aren't worth anything, I've been advocating an idea very similar to yours, based on the idea that as resource after resource is developed in sequence, we need to be talking about the number of ups and down of the roller coaster, this single up and down having been completely blown away by the US in just half a decade.

I am recommending a sine function to describe oil production, based on the number of resources yet to develop. 4 seems to be the right number so far, but it could be less if some are combined, or more if there is the same kind of sweetspot effect as showed up in the shales.

Image


This is a tough one as in essence we are not meant to know but evolve, organically. The key is in price and clearly, if price spotting were widespread, that would be the end of objective structure. That said, measurements to add to our intuitive connection with structure (and there are many very fine momentum players out there) would help. I personally do not use them, but their value cannot be underestimated.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

Unread postby ennui2 » Thu 17 Mar 2016, 17:57:35

americandream, your writing is getting increasingly cryptic:

"if price spotting were widespread, that would be the end of objective structure. "

What do you mean by "objective structure"? Structure of what? You mean no discernible pattern in a graph?

And what is a "momentum player"? A stock trader???

I feel like I should be looking at a glossary when I read your posts.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3920
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 10:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld
Top

Re: The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

Unread postby americandream » Thu 17 Mar 2016, 18:33:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'a')mericandream, your writing is getting increasingly cryptic:

"if price spotting were widespread, that would be the end of objective structure. "

What do you mean by "objective structure"? Structure of what? You mean no discernible pattern in a graph?

And what is a "momentum player"? A stock trader???

I feel like I should be looking at a glossary when I read your posts.


I appreciate your predicament ennui but I am only here to, and my apologies for sounding callous, develop a means to communicate what I see in the underlying order in reality, in a way that will politicise people through reason. I am nowhere near adept at this as you can see by the reactions I get but this story has to be told so I perservere. I have been struggling with this for quite a while.

That said and to answer your question, the markets will never be known. Objective order cannot know itself through us or else it renders the entire exercise checkmated. Thus the markets which capture all the world in readable data (and that is how I access this order for the moment) are mostly a mix of lucky gamblers, trend dependent and other incompetents and then, some very intuitive players who sense the underlying order though they cannot see it. That in a nutshell is what I posted.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 17 Mar 2016, 20:40:23

Another "curve" to consider:

the-peak-oil-story-revised-you-was-robbed-instead-t72381-40.html#p1303254

and debt:

"Oil Industry Needs Half a Trillion Dollars to Endure Price Slump"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... to-survive

and those involve debt repayments.
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5651
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland
Top

Re: The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

Unread postby americandream » Thu 17 Mar 2016, 20:47:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'A')nother "curve" to consider:

the-peak-oil-story-revised-you-was-robbed-instead-t72381-40.html#p1303254

and debt:

"Oil Industry Needs Half a Trillion Dollars to Endure Price Slump"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... to-survive

and those involve debt repayments.


Nation states in the Gulf are in a similar predicament and having to impose taxes and raise external financing to ride this part of the data. I wonder how that will impact on their funding of their imperial plans.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 18 Mar 2016, 08:00:03

ralfy - ""Oil Industry Needs Half a Trillion Dollars to Endure Price Slump" Not really. the "oil industry" will easily endure the slump by doing what it has always done: lay off hundreds of thousands of workers, shutter thousands of businesses and reduce the amount of new oil/NG developed. Been there...done that a couple of times myself. LOL
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS
Top

Re: The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

Unread postby americandream » Fri 18 Mar 2016, 15:45:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'r')alfy - ""Oil Industry Needs Half a Trillion Dollars to Endure Price Slump" Not really. the "oil industry" will easily endure the slump by doing what it has always done: lay off hundreds of thousands of workers, shutter thousands of businesses and reduce the amount of new oil/NG developed. Been there...done that a couple of times myself. LOL


This
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

Unread postby americandream » Fri 18 Mar 2016, 15:50:36

Mind you that said there is a distinction between cos and nation state oil businesses and it has to be said that the nation state paradigm will endure forces not confronting cos. Medieval nation states will endure acute forces not confronting the modernists and the effects of this current price slump could be far reaching...a sort of hidden hand of capitalist dynamics as it forces compliance.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 19 Mar 2016, 10:48:27

A - You mean how the nation oil state of Libya has fared? LOL
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS
Top

Re: The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 19 Mar 2016, 16:33:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'A')nother "curve" to consider:

the-peak-oil-story-revised-you-was-robbed-instead-t72381-40.html#p1303254

and debt:

"Oil Industry Needs Half a Trillion Dollars to Endure Price Slump"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... to-survive

and those involve debt repayments.


Fortunate indeed that producers can avail themselves of bankruptcy protection.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
User avatar
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 11018
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 17:10:26
Top

Re: The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

Unread postby americandream » Sat 19 Mar 2016, 17:03:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'A') - You mean how the nation oil state of Libya has fared? LOL


Libya was not really medieval. More a sort of mish mash bourgeoise socialist cum religious mini regional power with some sort of an idea as to how global economics worked. Where Ghadaffi failed was in flirting with Islam which is incompatible with what he sought to achieve and no sooner was he in a weakened position, the country reverted to form, murdered him very publicly and with a sort of indifferent self destructiveness, took to dismantling itself and then took, shortly thereafter in trying to swim the Med for Europe, dying in significant numbers in the process. Medievalism is in full view for all of us to see its absurdities and of course the fates of Iraq and Libya as well as the Gulf States are in full view for all to stare at in bemused fashion.
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 20 Mar 2016, 00:38:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'r')alfy - ""Oil Industry Needs Half a Trillion Dollars to Endure Price Slump" Not really. the "oil industry" will easily endure the slump by doing what it has always done: lay off hundreds of thousands of workers, shutter thousands of businesses and reduce the amount of new oil/NG developed. Been there...done that a couple of times myself. LOL


This


Don't forget "LOL."
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5651
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland
Top

Re: The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 20 Mar 2016, 00:44:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')
Libya was not really medieval. More a sort of mish mash bourgeoise socialist cum religious mini regional power with some sort of an idea as to how global economics worked. Where Ghadaffi failed was in flirting with Islam which is incompatible with what he sought to achieve and no sooner was he in a weakened position, the country reverted to form, murdered him very publicly and with a sort of indifferent self destructiveness, took to dismantling itself and then took, shortly thereafter in trying to swim the Med for Europe, dying in significant numbers in the process. Medievalism is in full view for all of us to see its absurdities and of course the fates of Iraq and Libya as well as the Gulf States are in full view for all to stare at in bemused fashion.


More like flirting with the gold dinar.
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5651
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland
Top

Re: The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

Unread postby americandream » Sun 20 Mar 2016, 01:57:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'r')alfy - ""Oil Industry Needs Half a Trillion Dollars to Endure Price Slump" Not really. the "oil industry" will easily endure the slump by doing what it has always done: lay off hundreds of thousands of workers, shutter thousands of businesses and reduce the amount of new oil/NG developed. Been there...done that a couple of times myself. LOL


This


Don't forget "LOL."


Communication is a real problem with humans when you have dimwits floating around. I mean wth is this lol. You drunk or what? Wife not cooked your dinner. Dog woke you up. Neighbours making a racket?
americandream
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 8650
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The Peak Oil Story revised: You was robbed instead

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 20 Mar 2016, 20:37:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '
')
Communication is a real problem with humans when you have dimwits floating around. I mean wth is this lol. You drunk or what? Wife not cooked your dinner. Dog woke you up. Neighbours making a racket?


"What does THIS mean?"

http://www.internetslang.com/THIS-meani ... nition.asp

LOL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LOL
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5651
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland
Top
Previous
Post a reply

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest



cron