[ralfy]

For the peak oil "story" to be "revised," it has to be shown that oil production costs (not prices) have fallen significantly.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'F')or the peak oil "story" to be "revised," it has to be shown that oil production costs (not prices) have fallen significantly.

[ROCKMAN]

pstarr - Don't be too hasty, bud. Many of the same folks that predicted a MM future also believe Elvis is alive. And just this weekend I saw an old man working in a taco truck at the Houston rodeo that was the spitting image of what an elderly Elvis would look like. So it might be time to revise both the PO and EID themes. LOL.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Yeah. the US has a bunch of oil. How much of that is diverted to our MILITARY . . . to maintain your imaginary glut? It's a lifestyle thing. Like that, huh lol

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', '
')WHAT KILLED DEMAND?

[Revi]

Here is the article that ran today in the local newspapers about my obsession with peak oil. I wish they hadn't said this:

"Lofving agreed, noting that lower oil prices globally could herald the end of the capitalist monopoly on power.", since that's not what I said exactly. It makes me look like some kind of a socialist or something.

https://www.centralmaine.com/2016/03/06 ... -new-film/

Overall I think it was a good article, and a lot of people won't read that part anyway.

I hope...

[Revi]

I agree that they played some games and we ended up with lots of oil that is too expensive to produce. I think the junk bonds they used to create it will have problems, and nobody will buy them the next time, but I could be wrong. After all remember PT Barnum? There's a sucker born every minute! We'll see what happens, but I don't see the shale industry making money any time soon, and the base that the world produces is going down, so even if they get that beast back to life it won't bump up oil supplies. That's my guess. This is what peak oil looks like. It's so interesting that low prices are what causes oil pumping to slow down. No incentive.

[ROCKMAN]

Revi - A friendly reminder: don't confuse folks with the cost to produce a well and the cost to DEVELOP a new well. Virtually all the US shale producers are generating a positive net cash flow FROM THEIR WELLS. Which isn't to say many companies, if they haven't gone belly up yet, aren’t on the verge. And yes: $Billions in debt won’t be repaid. But as far as the next round of oil Investments: remember the US shale boom came just 10 years after the oil patch was dealing with oil at HALF THE CURRENT PRICE. Granted it might be a toss-up between the desperation of pubcos, foolishness and greed. But when you combine all three a repeat of what we’ve seen the last 8 years isn’t that difficult to predict. LOL.

[Revi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'R')evi - A friendly reminder: don't confuse folks with the cost to produce a well and the cost to DEVELOP a new well. Virtually all the US shale producers are generating a positive net cash flow FROM THEIR WELLS. Which isn't to say many companies, if they haven't gone belly up yet, aren’t on the verge. And yes: $Billions in debt won’t be repaid. But as far as the next round of oil Investments: remember the US shale boom came just 10 years after the oil patch was dealing with oil at HALF THE CURRENT PRICE. Granted it might be a toss-up between the desperation of pubcos, foolishness and greed. But when you combine all three a repeat of what we’ve seen the last 8 years isn’t that difficult to predict. LOL.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'R')evi - A friendly reminder: don't confuse folks with the cost to produce a well and the cost to DEVELOP a new well. Virtually all the US shale producers are generating a positive net cash flow FROM THEIR WELLS. Which isn't to say many companies, if they haven't gone belly up yet, aren’t on the verge. And yes: $Billions in debt won’t be repaid. But as far as the next round of oil Investments: remember the US shale boom came just 10 years after the oil patch was dealing with oil at HALF THE CURRENT PRICE. Granted it might be a toss-up between the desperation of pubcos, foolishness and greed. But when you combine all three a repeat of what we’ve seen the last 8 years isn’t that difficult to predict. LOL.

[americandream]

It is hard to say just what the real market value of oil is as there is no real and precise way of fully measuring reserves. The Saudis are way too discreet with their reserves, the inference of course being that there is lots of it and they set the tone for the way this market finds price...which is highly subjective and prone to volatility as it comes up against objective price. In that context, just how sensible are the shale developments? Very I would conjecture. They are in essence a useful insurance in a volatile markets that has no transparency for as long as the House of Saud is allowed to run this most crucial of markets in an irrational manner. The imperial Brits ensconced these people at the driving wheel and they have been there ever since. In the notion I guess that they are the best client managers for the resources concerned. Which I would disagree with.

[americandream]

That said, we can take a higher time frame and detect what objective price is telling is. But who is going to do that? Not me. I would rather this species rose if warranted or was rendered extinct if unfit.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '&')quot;For the peak oil "story" to be "revised," it has to be shown that oil production costs (not prices) have fallen significantly."


But the costs will keep going up up up . . . and away for good.

[americandream]

Lol AdamB. Best post ever!!!!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'H')ere is the article that ran today in the local newspapers about my obsession with peak oil. I wish they hadn't said this:

"Lofving agreed, noting that lower oil prices globally could herald the end of the capitalist monopoly on power.", since that's not what I said exactly. It makes me look like some kind of a socialist or something.

https://www.centralmaine.com/2016/03/06 ... -new-film/

Overall I think it was a good article, and a lot of people won't read that part anyway.

I hope...

[ROCKMAN]

It might surprise some but I'll have to go along with Adam on this one, And also commend him for using "resources" instead of "reserves". I would go as far to say he's even a bit short on his estimate: my guess is that we've only produced 30% to 40% at best of the hydrocarbons contained in the earth. But there is that huge and unavoidable "IF". Which is "IF" they can be recovered economically. And a good bit could be recovered at $40/bbl. And more at $80/bbl. And even more at $120/bbl. And even still a lot more at $145/bbl.

So yes; there's a lot of oil left in Mother Earth that can be produced. But only if the global economies an afford to support such price levels for a sufficient length of time. We just saw a nice boost even though it was mostly in the US, the one country that could afford higher oil prices then any other country. But that lasted only about 6 years before the boom started to collapse. And how long before oil prices get high enough to convert a significant amount of those 'resources" to "reserves"? The Rockman wouldn't even try to make a WAG. The younger farts here will just have to wait and see. BTW the Rockman has set his share of those resources in his will and will pass them on to future generations. LOL

[americandream]

Rockman Care to elaborate on the distinction between resources and reserves. I ask as when pricing any asset, I look at inventory and as far as I am concerned, oil is already a resource whereas its reserves are indeterminate (given the nature of the industry. In contrast, a new alloy as an example assumes resource status when brought to market whereupon we then focus on reserves to find its price. This is general market practice. Of course, I am intrigued by your distinction.

Edit. And I have thus far been talking about crude in the ground (primary reserves) and not above ground stockpiles or the refined stuff.