by vox_mundi » Thu 25 Feb 2016, 20:39:07
IMF warns the global economy is 'highly vulnerable' $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said the global economy has weakened further and warned it was "highly vulnerable to adverse shocks".
It said the weakening had come "amid increasing financial turbulence and falling asset prices".
The IMF also noted any future prospects for global growth "could be derailed by market turbulence, the oil price crash and geopolitical conflicts".
http://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/pdf/2016/022616.pdf Exports from China to Brazil collapse as recession deepens $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') Chinese exports to Brazil collapsed last month in the latest dramatic sign of the deepening recession in Latin America’s biggest economy.
Containerised exports from China to Brazil of goods ranging from automotives to textiles fell 60 per cent in January compared with a year earlier as the weak real limits Brazilians’ ability to buy imported goods, according to Maersk Line, the world’s largest shipping company. Total volume of containerised imports into Latin America’s biggest economy halved, data showed.
“What we are seeing right now from China is not only a phenomenon for Brazil, we are seeing the same all over Latin America, declining [Chinese export] volumes into all the markets,” said Antonio Dominguez, managing director for Maersk Line in Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina. “It has been going on for several quarters but is getting more evident as we move into [2016].”
“Whatever industry we take a look at in terms of imports into Brazil from Asia, it is on a downward trend,” said Nestor Amador, commercial director for Maersk Line in Brazil. “It seems rock bottom is yet to be hit.”
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;Moody’s did the expected and finally became the third major rating agency to downgrade Brazil to junk status, with its decision to move Brazil to a Ba2 rating from a Baa3 rating. The ratings agency also affirmed the negative outlook, suggesting further steps down are likely. While this was a fairly well digested event by the market, that only led to temporary BRL weakness, the two-notch downgrade did send a strong message on the rate of deterioration in both the fiscal and political dimensions of the Brazilian economic landscape.
... The two-notch downgrade builds in the expectation of further fiscal and political deterioration, and the statement by Moody’s suggested little possibility of a reversal, and indeed the negative outlook suggests that the risk of further downgrades remains high.
We view Brazil as entrenched in a deep fiscal-political quagmire until the impeachment process can come to completion.