[onlooker]

Yes Tita that is because peak oil is intimately interwoven with economic effects and questions. One reinforces the other and vice-versa.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'Y')es Tita that is because peak oil is intimately interwoven with economic effects and questions. One reinforces the other and vice-versa.

[onlooker]

Yes Adam what your saying is true. I too am surprised why peak oil adherents have not emphasized this more holistic approach to peak oil studies.

[onlooker]

To be honest Pete I have not been too familiar with the arguments of these peak oil pioneers. So I admit my bad on this and am glad you corrected me. So that Adam can get his facts straight. Monte also stated that Adam was making some very convoluted statements.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hich is why it is utterly amazing that no peak oil analysis has ever used resource cost curves and demand curves to figure out the when, and at what cost, peak oil happens. Why were peakers of a decade ago misled, and by who, to ignore resource cost curves? Not a one...and no demand curve to match against it.

[ROCKMAN]

tita - And here's were ASSUMPTIONS vary. When you saying PO is suppose to slow growth I suspect you don't that this inflection point would happen around the DATE of GPO. But perhaps in the term. The 1980's oil price spike put a huge crimp on global growth. Obviously not related to GPO. But just one more aspect of the POD. The POD isn't a new dynamic. If you haven't heard: in 1975 my mentor at Mobil Oil explained how had been struggling with the PO problem for the last 10 years. We didn't call it "PO" of course. And still don't: it's the reserve replacement problem. Maybe he was just a very good guesser but he felt the problem would become severe after 2000. But it makes sense: his career began as the US was fast approaching its PO and he was working hard to find new BIG oil reserves.

As we've seen over the last 20+ years the global oil production rate has had little effect in growth. But the price of oil did. Likewise we've also seen the disconnect, at least in the short term, between the production rate and the price of oil.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd I still remember your call many years ago for a 2015 world peak. It made quite an impression. Do you recollect that? Do you hold to it on retrospect?

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'Y')es Adam what your saying is true. I too am surprised why peak oil adherents have not emphasized this more holistic approach to peak oil studies.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'T')o be honest Pete I have not been too familiar with the arguments of these peak oil pioneers. So I admit my bad on this and am glad you corrected me. So that Adam can get his facts straight. Monte also stated that Adam was making some very convoluted statements.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'T')o be honest Pete I have not been too familiar with the arguments of these peak oil pioneers. So I admit my bad on this and am glad you corrected me. So that Adam can get his facts straight. Monte also stated that Adam was making some very convoluted statements.

[ROCKMAN]

LMFAO! A so the argument continues over the proven unimportant date of global peak oil. It's as if the huge swings in oil prices and rig counts, instabilty of a host of govts and of the global economies along with $Trillions of taxes and countless lives lost in military adventures in a region with its oil production the only rerlevence to the rest of the world...all that is relatively unimportant compared to some past, current or future date on a calendar? What next: reignite the argument over how many angels can fit on the head of a pin? LOL.

[tita]

Rockman - Yeah, I don't place the slowing of growth just before peak oil, but as an effect of it, first happening in the beginning of the 1970's. There are a lot of similarities between the 1970's and the 2000's. The same questions about sustainable growth, the same development of new sources of oil (shallow and deep water vs shale) from the increasing oil prices and a big crisis at the end. It's quite crazy to think they just searched oil far at sea, but with enough money and promises of yield, you do crazy things. It's quite easy to think that the recover now will be the same than 1986 and after, with another 15 years of slow recover, and another emerging country taking a big step forward.

Anyway, since the 1970's, we fight to keep the growth running. And it's getting harder. The actual low-price situation is really interesting. How long will it last and what impact on growth will it have? Wait and see!

[ROCKMAN]

tita - Exactly. And since I'm smart enough to know what I don't know I make a point of never predicting future oil prices. But while I expect the oil price recovery will be slow (many years) I suspect it won't take quit as long as it did from the 80's. Much of the new production (essentially the US) will have much shorter lives then the old conventional reservoirs producing 30 years ago. That also includes those huge Deep Water fields. And let's not forget the future of all those very old conventional fields: rust never sleeps...and neither does depletion: it doesn't matter how hard they baby Ghawar et al...those fields have far less to produce then they have recovered to date.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'L')MFAO! A so the argument continues over the proven unimportant date of global peak oil. It's as if the huge swings in oil prices and rig counts, instabilty of a host of govts and of the global economies along with $Trillions of taxes and countless lives lost in military adventures in a region with its oil production the only rerlevence to the rest of the world...all that is relatively unimportant compared to some past, current or future date on a calendar? What next: reignite the argument over how many angels can fit on the head of a pin? LOL.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'L')MFAO! A so the argument continues over the proven unimportant date of global peak oil.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 't')ita - Exactly. And since I'm smart enough to know what I don't know I make a point of never predicting future oil prices.