[C8]

There were, broadly speaking, 2 Peak Oil camps:

1. Oil output will decline too fast before other energy sources can come online and transition (timing crash)

2. Oil output will decline by too much for any other energy source to economically take its place EVER (EROEI crash)

Are we now past these dangers?

More oil is being discovered, constantly improved methods are getting more oil out of old formations, solar, wind and nuclear tech are all improving rapidly. We seem to be able to transition smoothly after all. The window of opportunity seems wide open.

Correct?

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'T')here were, broadly speaking, 2 Peak Oil camps:

1. Oil output will decline too fast before other energy sources can come online and transition (timing crash)

2. Oil output will decline by too much for any other energy source to economically take its place EVER (EROEI crash)

Are we now past these dangers?

More oil is being discovered, constantly improved methods are getting more oil out of old formations, solar, wind and nuclear tech are all improving rapidly. We seem to be able to transition smoothly after all. The window of opportunity seems wide open.

Correct?

[Shaved Monkey]

Enjoy the canoe ride before we hit the waterfall is the way Im feeling

[ennui2]

I remember back in the day the IEA began to shift its rhetoric from merely prediction oil supply to banging the drum that we should leave oil proactively in order to fight climate change.

I've heard the arguments that renewables can't make up the shortfall ad nauseum. What we have available technologically is what we have, and people will not just suddenly throw up their hands, plant survival gardens, and powerdown. At some point there will be a deathbed conversion to renewables. At that time, someone like Musk will be in the catbird seat. Right now he's trying to seduce people but when the going gets rough they will be banging down his door.

Now, if you subscribe to the idea that the economy instantly nosedives and everyone's too poor to do anything but powerdown, then sure, game over, zombie hordes, whatever. But I just don't see it happening that suddenly and there are still more than enough people rich enough to drive a "buy our way out of danger" mentality.

So I think we're already at a transitional stage where the foundation for some meaningful PO mitigation is still being laid down. I doubt there's enough of a lull left in oil supply for it to hit critical mass, but it will likely be a better situation than it would have been in, let's say, 2008.

[Shaved Monkey]

Surely we are in the delusional stage.
No need to panic/plan buy a new SUV, PO isnt going to happen

[Simon_R]

We are past the peak, we are on the bumpy plateau

only question is when is the decline going to be permanent, and what flavour

Zombie hordes are here already (ask the greeks)

Simon

[Peak_Yeast]

Both 1 & 2 are still relevant and will be until solutions has been executed.

Today we have what amounts to no solution at all - and less time.

These things happens over such a long time that people obviously has problems seeing the drift and thus thinks nothing is happening.

It is and and we are in the most interesting period where the seed is sown as to how we will fare during the power down. - Which INHO is: Very badly for the vast majority - which is basically only a step worse that what we have now which is: 20 - 30% of population fares badly bordering on death by starvation, malnutrition, disease and war.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'T')here were, broadly speaking, 2 Peak Oil camps:

1. Oil output will decline too fast before other energy sources can come online and transition (timing crash)

2. Oil output will decline by too much for any other energy source to economically take its place EVER (EROEI crash)

Are we now past these dangers?

More oil is being discovered, constantly improved methods are getting more oil out of old formations, solar, wind and nuclear tech are all improving rapidly. We seem to be able to transition smoothly after all. The window of opportunity seems wide open.

Correct?

[ROCKMAN]

Once again this obsession with a PO date. As I mentioned the other day: after what we seen in the last 25 years with the $TRILLIONS in US tax $'s pissed away, the body count of not just our military but hundreds of thousands of civilians, the drastic positive/negative effects of high/low energy prices on the US economy, the increased instability of a region vitally critical to the global economy, etc., etc.: if someone doesn't now understand the importance of the Peak Oil Dynamic and not some X marked on a calendar then they'll never get it.

As has been said many times: no one is as blind as someone who refuses to see. LOL.

[C8]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'O')nce again this obsession with a PO date. As I mentioned the other day: after what we seen in the last 25 years with the $TRILLIONS in US tax $'s pissed away, the body count of not just our military but hundreds of thousands of civilians, the drastic positive/negative effects of high/low energy prices on the US economy, the increased instability of a region vitally critical to the global economy, etc., etc.: if someone doesn't now understand the importance of the Peak Oil Dynamic and not some X marked on a calendar then they'll never get it.

As has been said many times: no one is as blind as someone who refuses to see. LOL.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', '
')
Are we now past these dangers?

More oil is being discovered, constantly improved methods are getting more oil out of old formations, solar, wind and nuclear tech are all improving rapidly. We seem to be able to transition smoothly after all. The window of opportunity seems wide open.

Correct?

[ralfy]

New production involves significant levels of debt, and only higher prices will allow the industry to pay off those debts:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... to-survive

Other sources of energy have low quantity and quality, and will very likely not be able to allow for a transition that will require high levels of energy and material resources:

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-22956470

On top of that, more energy and material resources will be needed to meet the needs of a growing global population, something that will be very difficult in a world which might now be in overshoot:

https://theconversation.com/if-everyone ... uble-43905

The transition may involve many decades:

http://www.businessinsider.com/131-year ... il-2010-11

which will be difficult if resource availability keeps dropping:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse

Given these, a successful transition will have to involve energy sources that are abundant, can provide high energy returns plus petrochemicals, reverse trends for resource availability, and cover the high costs of producing oil, the needs of a growing global population, and the wants of a growing global middle class. In addition, it has to take place within only a few years.

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')..... the NRC hasn't issued a license to build a new reactor since 1978, a year before the Three Mile Island accident in Pennsylvania. Reactors that have opened in the last decades received their initial licenses before 1978.

[ROCKMAN]

C8 - That's the point I keep hitting on. EVERYONE: Let's try a quick survey;

What will be the price of oil on the day (Call it X) we reach global PO?
The price of oil 2 years prior to GPO?
The price of oil X+5 years?
The price of oil X+10 years?
The price of oil X+30 years?

Be brave everyone: none of the answers should be subject to any criticism.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'C')8 - That's the point I keep hitting on. EVERYONE: Let's try a quick survey;

What will be the price of oil on the day (Call it X) we reach global PO?
The price of oil 2 years prior to GPO?
The price of oil X+5 years?
The price of oil X+10 years?
The price of oil X+30 years?

Be brave everyone: none of the answers should be subject to any criticism.

[Simon_R]

Assuming the Definition of Peak Oil, is

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he moment that production peaks from conventional reservoirs

[Revi]

How could the danger of Peak Oil pass? The danger is just over the horizon. We are falling down the Seneca Cliff, and it will accelerate. It's nice to have some extra oil right now, but I am sure we'll use it in our wave runners and snowmobiles long before we need it to grind corn.

http://peakoilbarrel.com/all-roads-lead-to-peak-oil/

[C8]

I can't see oil above $100 a barrel for the next decade, and maybe longer.

The exploration and extraction tech just keeps improving dramatically. Not in just new ways to get oil, but to get it cheaply. Meanwhile China is building dozens and dozens of nuke reactors and developing floating nukes to rent to coastal cities. Solar and wind prices keep declining.

And as virtual reality, travel, meetings, etc. continue to expand- people seem to be using less energy than before. Broke, they stay home and watch HD TV and loo at their phones instead of more energy intense pleasures. Businesses conduct less travel, tele-conference more, etc.

So with expanding cheap energy and lowering energy use I think the energy transition will probably succeed.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('C8', 'I') can't see oil above $100 a barrel for the next decade, and maybe longer.

The exploration and extraction tech just keeps improving dramatically. Not in just new ways to get oil, but to get it cheaply. Meanwhile China is building dozens and dozens of nuke reactors and developing floating nukes to rent to coastal cities. Solar and wind prices keep declining.

And as virtual reality, travel, meetings, etc. continue to expand- people seem to be using less energy than before. Broke, they stay home and watch HD TV and loo at their phones instead of more energy intense pleasures. Businesses conduct less travel, tele-conference more, etc.

So with expanding cheap energy and lowering energy use I think the energy transition will probably succeed.

[EdwinSm]

NO on two possible accounts (take your pick):

NO! The danger of Peak Oil has not passed - the danger is still mostly in the future, when the effects of a peak in oil production start to be realized by the general public.

or

NO! There is still enough carbon in the earth's mantel to facilitate the on going production of abiotic oil