by AgentR11 » Thu 04 Feb 2016, 12:15:28
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StarvingLion', 'A')ny sign of liquid fuels rationing anywhere in the world will trigger it...
Hate to stomp on some good apocalypse doom... but...
We've had liquid fuels rationing for quite a while now.
Current world situation: producers produce all they can; and they sell it to the highest bidder, more or less. (details and contracts, blaah blah).
Price is the rationing tool; and people are extremely sensitive to the price of fuel; much more so than I ever expected when I first joined this site. The price went to $100+ for a bit, and people stopped driving as much. Populations measurably changed behavior at a measly $3/gal.
The dynamic of price, supply, and demand (think of as a 3 variable+time surface in 4space; not some f(x)=y stock graph) *IS* rationing. It is the invisible hand, and for oil, liquid fuels, at least... it works like a champ. Works far better than I ever imagined it could...
So... if supply-max is half of what it is today; the demand and price will be different, but there will still be fuel at the gas stations, and diesel in the tractors that grow, harvest, and deliver the grain we all depend on. Thus, there will be no cities burning to the ground in some global event. People will just get poorer, and poorer, bit by bit; but no industrial citizen who is mentally competent will starve, and even most of the incompetent will end up being chased down by do-gooders and fed, under the glaring eyes of the charity cook.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he result will be the immediate return of the 13th century
We like to think we're very different from the 13th century. Guess what. We aren't. 13th century life still had large cities, trade, laws, rulers, oligarchs, armies, navies, injustice, agriculture, wealth, and luxuries. We have more toys is all. They had toys back then too, and they were as novel to them, as our new toys are to us.
Someone mentioned "flat earth"... no technically inclined person of that era thought the world was flat. But just as it is impossible to convince an "intelligent design" ding-dong today, it was impossible to convince Bob the Potter that the Earth really is a spheroid. And if you poke Bob the Potter enough with "proof", he'll hit you with a stick, and you'll stop. Just like today.
To information preservation. You can't undo the fact that people know to look through a piece of shaped glass to see tiny things. You can't undo the knowledge recorded in millions upon millions of copies of "Handbook of Chemistry and Physics"; you can't undo knowledge that numbers work best when you have include a zero. Its just unrealistic to expect a return to a prior state of ignorance; even if an ignorant, pre-ag version of human life consisted of greater freedom, truth, and dignity than any modern human can experience. We just can't get there.
Could such knowledge end up compartmentalized in guilds or other social structures? Sure. But is that really all that different than the "guild" alluded to by possessing a "registered engineer" stamp?
In short, no apocalypse from fuel shortages; *AND* no return to a pre-industrial but post-agricultural world is possible.
Peak Oil simply turns poverty-with-food for half the humans, into poverty-with-food for 90% of the humans. Well fed humans do not riot.