PeakOil is You
Has the Great Contraction Begun?
Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?
by MonteQuest » Sun 31 Jan 2016, 14:11:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', ' ')Her summation was that bakken (which is kind of more of a short-hand for fracking in general) would not significantly change the post-peak dynamic. She was wrong. You can point to the semantics of whether bakken peaks or not, but the contribution of fracking DID significantly impact the supply/demand dynamic, regardless of whether it was juiced by easy credit or not.
No she wasn't. The Alaskan oil made construction of a huge pipeline viable, but only impacted oil production and imports for a brief period. Same with LTO; a short blip in the oil production chart and only because demand destruction brought oil demand down far enough to avoid the waiting maw of PO.
If anything, the most significant change in the PO dynamic, is that the production from the Bakken has engendered complacency, heralding marginal last ditch efforts as some panacea.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?
by ennui2 » Sun 31 Jan 2016, 14:24:30
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')a short blip in the oil production chart and only because demand destruction brought oil demand down far enough to avoid the waiting maw of PO.
')a short blip in the oil production chart and only because demand destruction brought oil demand down far enough to avoid the waiting maw of PO.
And here we go full-circle again with the demand destruction. The demand destruction looks alarming on paper but in what way is it reflective of any sort of hardship in the US? The answer is it doesn't.
And secondly, while I agree with you that shale is a "short blip" in the grand scheme of things, there's a difference between kicking the can down the road six months and kicking it down six years.
This "short blip" has lasted quite a bit longer than the peak oil pundits thought possible. Those who predict that we will fall into the "waiting maw of PO" at any moment are probably jumping the gun by virtue of their doomer bias. This is not to say we won't get there, but it will happen when it happens and not a moment sooner.
I used to be an avid reader of The Oil Drum and I looked at enough charts and graphs to make my eyes bleed, but what I realized is that the conclusions drawn from them aren't necessarily definitive. It's a fool-me-once, fool-me-twice situation.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?
by onlooker » Sun 31 Jan 2016, 14:34:05
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he demand destruction looks alarming on paper but in what way is it reflective of any sort of hardship in the US? The answer is it doesn't.
Well I think this reflects your misunderstanding of the economic macro dynamic. This demand destruction translates to jobs lost, to less consumption, to downsizing, to part time work instead of full time. The problem is at this stage it is not happening fast enough or pervasively enough for all to notice especially those not keenly watching. Demand destruction implies non intentional cutting back so you cannot make the argument that it is fat being cut off the economy. Fat is about maintaining full employment the absence of which itself compounds economic downward dynamics.
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?
by MonteQuest » Sun 31 Jan 2016, 14:34:29
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', ' ')The demand destruction looks alarming on paper but in what way is it reflective of any sort of hardship in the US?
That is hardly the point I have argued is it?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'A')nd secondly, while I agree with you that shale is a "short blip" in the grand scheme of things, there's a difference between kicking the can down the road six months and kicking it down six years.
Not really, especially when you consider the high prices and the debt required to do it. It's brought the bubble closer to the pin.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', 'T')hose who predict that we will fall into the "waiting maw of PO" at any moment are probably jumping the gun by virtue of their doomer bias. This is not to say we won't get there, but it will happen when it happens and not a moment sooner.
I think we are already in the PO maw and just don't realize it, as I have explained at length. Just because the boat is still floating doesn't mean you aren't in the belly of the whale.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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