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Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 29 Jan 2016, 21:52:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')Yup. When folks have to use zerohedge to make a point (always a doomsday point, of course), then you know they're really reaching.


For a long while on my FB page I used to share news links about doom (usually global warming). I was very strict about only sharing MSM links (National Geographic, network or cable news, major newspaper outlets, etc...). Turns out it wasn't that, while the volume was less, it still wasn't hard to find these things rather than, let's say, posting doomer boilerplate screeds from Greer. Because these sources had no obvious doomer axe to grind it was that much harder for anyone to claim bias or shoot the messenger.

Of course, none of my postings ever generated even a single comment from my blue-pill friends-list, so I stopped handing out red-pills.

My feeling is that MSM coverage of a topic reflect actual canaries in the coal-mine, whereas doom sites are all-doom-all-the-time and therefore fall into the "clock is right twice a day" batting-average. It's easy to claim that the MSM wants to push a "feel good about BAU" message, and that may be true overall, but there's still enough variability to allow for honest coverage of these issues.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 02:18:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', ' ') That is OK Monti. We also know that you think Hillary Clinton would make a great president, so once we factor that into everything else you say we realize you really believe it and just don't know any better.


Never said anything of the sort. I said she has a superb command of the issues. No one can deny that. I'd like to see Bernie win and there be a revolution.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby peripato » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 06:37:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vox_mundi', '[')b]World stocks jump as Bank of Japan rate goes sub-zero

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The BOJ unexpectedly cut a benchmark rate below zero in another bold move to stimulate the Japanese economy as volatile markets and slowing global growth threaten the central bank's efforts to overcome deflation.

Global equities surged, the yen tumbled and sovereign debt rallied after the BOJ said it would charge 0.1 percent for excess reserves and may cut rates further if necessary, an aggressive policy pioneered by the European Central Bank.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Japanese government bonds JP10YTN=JBTC plunged to a record low of 0.09 percent, and the yen fell 2.32 percent to 121.57, on track for its biggest daily fall against the dollar in over a year.

"The BOJ decision was a massive surprise. It's further money printing from Japan on a massive scale after having told the markets that they're not doing it. That triggered European investors to push the risk-on button," said Will Hamlyn, investment analyst at Manulife Asset Management.

This policy is otherwise known as "shovelling shit uphill"... 8)
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 06:43:52

so isn't that in effect like giving people money to take out loans. How desperate can you get?
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 06:47:21

Speaking of desperate looks like the good days are over for Shale in the US. Time to get nostalgic. https://srsroccoreport.com/another-nail ... has-begun/
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 09:19:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 's')o isn't that in effect like giving people money to take out loans. How desperate can you get?


Or forcing depositors to invest their savings in other things with a ROI. I think that is their game.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 09:30:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 's')o isn't that in effect like giving people money to take out loans. How desperate can you get?


Or forcing depositors to invest their savings in other things with a ROI. I think that is their game.

I think that it's simpler than that, they want the money to "get out and move stuff!".
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 09:46:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 's')o isn't that in effect like giving people money to take out loans. How desperate can you get?


Or forcing depositors to invest their savings in other things with a ROI. I think that is their game.

I think that it's simpler than that, they want the money to "get out and move stuff!".


Isn't that what I just said? Or do you mean spend it into the economy?

Or, with negative rates, banks are essentially paying to park their money, so negative rates will push banks to lend more to companies, which would then spend and hire. At any rate, money moves into the economy.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 14:13:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'S')peaking of desperate looks like the good days are over for Shale in the US. Time to get nostalgic. https://srsroccoreport.com/another-nail ... has-begun/


That site is no more authoritative than Zerohedge. Please, people, refrain from just cherry-picking doom from whatever shows up in a google search.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 14:23:51

Ennui, you keep disqualifying sites that I reference, you are leaving me without sites. :( :( :(
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 14:25:47

All this consistent by the way with the drop in oil price and consequent revenue and prospects for the Oil companies.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 14:26:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'S')peaking of desperate looks like the good days are over for Shale in the US. Time to get nostalgic. https://srsroccoreport.com/another-nail ... has-begun/


That site is no more authoritative than Zerohedge. Please, people, refrain from just cherry-picking doom from whatever shows up in a google search.


Shooting the messenger again. The data is from the EIA.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 14:29:00

Oh by the way guys, look at this site which I made an OP in the Economics forum about. I would tend to believe their data rather than the official data. http://www.shadowstats.com/
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 14:37:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'e')nnui apparently you don't like zerohedge. What is a zerohedge? Is that a bad bet? Perhaps you should be in the economy forum? Or somewhere else?

Regarding the contraction: the data is strong. The implication for the US economy hoisted on a frail shale bubble is dire. In lieu of collapsing North Sea, North Slope and OPEC it appears that the oil indeed is running out.
(right click to see the contraction)
Image
Image
The end of the oil age is catastrophic.


Personally I split the Gas and Oil shale resources for a fundamental reason. The oil shales were shown to be very limited in terms of how long they would last. Even the ever optimistic EIA was saying the different oil shale plays would peak individually between 2018 and 2022 as they each ran out of growth potential in the number of drilling locations needed to maintain growth of supply from them. Gas shales on the other side of the coin are so massive and extensive we have barely scratched the surface when it comes to using up the potential drilling locations. Thus the decline in both is currently from low prices taking away the incentive to drill, but when prices go back up the oil shale potential will be very limited because the viable area they cover are much smaller geographically.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 15:51:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')anada, as per above: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s the price of natural gas increased from 2012 to 2014, gas drilling rigs fell 40% from 556 to 333. Furthermore, drilling rigs continued to decline and now are at a record low of 127. Just as Art Berman stated, the average break-even for most shale gas plays are $6 mmBtu, while only a small percentage of the Marcellus is profitable at $4 mmBtu.

Looking at the chart again, we can see that the price of natural gas never got close to $6 mmtu.. the highest was $4.37 mmBtu. Thus, the U.S. Shale Gas Industry has been a commercial failure.

Reserves however vast are not commercially possible.

They're commercially feasible in the long run, as long as they cost less to extract than people are willing to pay (in total, including taxes, etc) when they need them. The markets will work to determine the necessary price in the long run, just as they have for many decades, even if the price is volatile in the short run.

Are you sure this short term fall-off in shale oil field production isn't due more to the rapidly declining price of oil (and thus the incentive to drill new wells, etc) over the timeframe you show the decline?

I continue to find the idea that people in the middle class can't afford hydrocarbon products at dirt cheap prices, even as they continue to consume more of them globally, simply ludicrous. This also flies in the face of the economic facts on the ground in places like the US (where lots of fossil fuels are burned) as unemployment, GDP, housing prices, rent prices, the purchase of total autos, the purchase of gas guzzling autos, etc. all showing an improving economy. An economy with people overall ready, willing, and able to burn plenty of oil and other fossil fuels at, again, compared to the 2010 to 2014 period where the global economy continued to grow, oil prices that are DIRT CHEAP.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 16:09:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', ' ')An economy with people overall ready, willing, and able to burn plenty of oil and other fossil fuels at, again, compared to the 2010 to 2014 period where the global economy continued to grow, oil prices that are DIRT CHEAP.


What a word salad...are you Sarah Palin? 8)

Failed to follow your point.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 30 Jan 2016, 16:21:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')anada, as per above: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s the price of natural gas increased from 2012 to 2014, gas drilling rigs fell 40% from 556 to 333. Furthermore, drilling rigs continued to decline and now are at a record low of 127. Just as Art Berman stated, the average break-even for most shale gas plays are $6 mmBtu, while only a small percentage of the Marcellus is profitable at $4 mmBtu.

Looking at the chart again, we can see that the price of natural gas never got close to $6 mmtu.. the highest was $4.37 mmBtu. Thus, the U.S. Shale Gas Industry has been a commercial failure.

Reserves however vast are not commercially possible.


In the winter of 2004/2005 I was buying gas for $11/MM/BTU. I wasn't thrilled about it and the next spring I installed a modern very high efficiency furnace and invested in new insulation. That was when I was convinced that Peak conventional gas was it and prices would stay high forever. Then gas fracking took off and my $7,500.00 investment in home improvements went from a 5 year pay back horizon to 25 years.

The USA is still a net importer of Natural Gas because Canada still has a surplus of cheap conventional gas they are thrilled to sell us. Whenever Canada can't sell us ultra cheap conventional gas the price will rise and that $6/MM/BTU price will be the new cap, instead of cheap conventional gas being the cap.

Here in Ohio the drilling in the Utica shale is little changed from 2014, those wells produce a very wet gas that pays off both as methane and Crude and Condensate income streams. Ohio has a number of oil wells and a few refineries so selling the condensate into the oil sector is not a problem.
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