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Zika virus

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

Re: Zika virus

Postby Subjectivist » Thu 21 Jan 2016, 20:06:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', 'C')NN is reporting on the Zika virus in Brazil. I bolded the last line. [not looking to start a multi-page thread on this and incite panic amount the PO.com readers :) ]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zika_fever

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s of November 2015, reports from the Brazilian Health Ministry alerted people to a previously unknown connection between the zika virus and cases of newborn microcephaly in Northeastern Brazil.[16][17][18] The Ministry later confirmed [19][20] the previously suspected connection between zika infection of pregnant women and newborn microcephaly, with at least 2,400 reported cases of microcephaly in the country this year as of 12 December 2015, and 29 fatalities.[10][21] According to a CNN report, Brazilian health officials were also recommending that parents consider putting off pregnancy due to the sharp increase in cases of microcephaly.[22]


In 2012 Brazil had 3,008,500 live births, so while I feel bad about the injured children they are under 0.1 percent of all births. While each case is sad, your chances of this tragedy striking you are very small.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: Zika virus

Postby PrestonSturges » Sun 24 Jan 2016, 03:08:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'R')elated to malaria, no?


No. Malaria is caused by a parasitic microscopic animal that burrows into red blood cells where it then lays dormant for a period of time.

Dengue Fever is a virus like Zika Fever and is carried by the same kind of mosquito's.

I'm going to assume Zika is an RNA virus like mosquito borne Dengue fever, West Nile virus, and Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEE). Other RNA viruses include hantavirus ("four corners virus") and Ebola, both ridiculously deadly.
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Re: Zika virus

Postby PrestonSturges » Sun 24 Jan 2016, 03:17:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'C')onspiracy theory's will be coming out of the woodwork. Was this virus planted by the 1% to reduce the excess populations? Maybe an extremist environmental group unleashed it to depopulate the rainforest, so it can rebuild itself? Or the myth I will hold on to, Nature is fixing a problem...
No, it's the NWO creating the new epsilon class of workers.
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Re: Zika virus

Postby evilgenius » Sun 24 Jan 2016, 13:26:01

The real challenge this is going to bring is to the anti-abortion minded countries that are dominated by Roman Catholic doctrine. The obstinate wall of thought will not fall in the face of this, but some people will change their minds. Giving people choice in life rather than imposing randomness as God's will is not necessarily a bad idea, except when it erodes certain positions of power. This could lead to an interesting change in the art and culture of some of these places in the coming years, not to mention potential changes to their laws.

Over on the thread about what religion means to me there are several memes working. MonteQuest argued about good people doing evil things in the name of religion. I suppose, to the extent that the logical conclusion of this ends at those poor damaged people who will grow up severely mentally handicapped(them and their families), MonteQuest is right. If you look beyond that, to the kinds of societal changes that could take place in the wake of seeming evil, then less so.
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Re: Zika virus

Postby evilgenius » Sun 24 Jan 2016, 13:32:20

The thing that news of this virus made me think about more than anything was the movie Children of Men. In that movie women stopped conceiving. The world hadn't seen a child born in years. Humanity was slowly dying. When I imagine that movie with children, only absolutely all of them born the way that this virus transforms them, I think it is worse. What would we do?
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Re: Zika virus

Postby dohboi » Sun 24 Jan 2016, 19:28:29

Here's the latest map:

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http://gizmodo.com/zika-virus-outbreak- ... 1754572559

At least four countries have advised that women not have children. It is now spreading far beyond Latin America into Africa and South Asia and many islands. These are areas that have some of the highest birth rates in the world. Are we about to see a sudden drop in global birth rates, or an explosion of microcephaly right around the world's middle?
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Re: Zika virus

Postby PrestonSturges » Sun 24 Jan 2016, 19:52:48

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Re: Zika virus

Postby vox_mundi » Sun 24 Jan 2016, 20:03:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', '.').. It is now spreading far beyond Latin America into Africa and South Asia and many islands. ...

The virus is originally from Africa.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Z')ika fever, Zika, or Zika disease, which since the 1950s has been known to occur within a narrow equatorial belt from Africa to Asia.

In 2014, the virus spread eastward across the Pacific Ocean to French Polynesia, then to Easter Island and in 2015 to Central America, the Caribbean, and South America, where the current Zika outbreak has reached pandemic levels.
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Re: Zika virus

Postby dohboi » Mon 25 Jan 2016, 03:17:52

Thanks for that. The first place I had heard about it occurring was in Brazil, so I foolishly jumped to conclusions.

So like so many other things good and bad, this disease originated in Africa and is spreading around the globe. How big will this disease and this story get this year, I wonder...
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Re: Zika virus

Postby Tanada » Mon 25 Jan 2016, 10:37:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'T')hanks for that. The first place I had heard about it occurring was in Brazil, so I foolishly jumped to conclusions.

So like so many other things good and bad, this disease originated in Africa and is spreading around the globe. How big will this disease and this story get this year, I wonder...


As I pointed out earlier, with less than 1 percent of pregnancies in the outbreak region actually being affected by the virus its impact is tiny compared to hunger, malnourshment and about a hundred other diseases that are much deadlier and more easily spread. This is the cause celeb of the media, just as Ebola was a few years ago and West Nile virus was a few years before that and Lyme disease was before those ones.
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Re: Zika virus

Postby dohboi » Mon 25 Jan 2016, 14:22:08

T, it doesn't matter what percent of pregnancies are actually affected by it. Women don't know ahead of time if they are going to be that one percent or not.

What is important is how many women decide not to have kids because of the chance of having a deformed kid. That number is likely to be quite large when governments are actually telling people not to have kids because of the likelihood that they will be affected.

Yes, right now, the other things you mention are much larger causes of disease and death. But pregnancies avoided for fear of Zika, on the one hand, and deaths from droughts and floods from El Nino, on the other, will be births avoided and lives lost added on top of these historical scourges.

You may have decided that Ebola is and was no big deal, but the relatives of the thousands of people who died from it and the many more people whose lives were disrupted by it would tend to disagree.
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Re: Zika virus

Postby Subjectivist » Mon 25 Jan 2016, 14:28:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'T'), it doesn't matter what percent of pregnancies are actually affected by it. Women don't know ahead of time if they are going to be that one percent or not.

What is important is how many women decide not to have kids because of the chance of having a deformed kid. That number is likely to be quite large when governments are actually telling people not to have kids because of the likelihood that they will be affected.

Yes, right now, the other things you mention are much larger causes of disease and death. But pregnancies avoided for fear of Zika, on the one hand, and deaths from droughts and floods from El Nino, on the other, will be births avoided and lives lost added on top of these historical scourges.

You may have decided that Ebola is and was no big deal, but the relatives of the thousands of people who died from it and the many more people whose lives were disrupted by it would tend to disagree.


What about the tens of thousands who die of Malaria or get crippled from Polio? Their families are sad, but their neighbors keep having just as many kids as before. I think you are looking for some silver bullet that will end population growth, but I don't think you will ever find it.
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Re: Zika virus

Postby dohboi » Mon 25 Jan 2016, 15:18:41

I'm not looking for a 'silver bullet.' But I don't know of another disease that has prompted government officials to tell people not to have any more kids. Do you?
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Re: Zika virus

Postby evilgenius » Mon 25 Jan 2016, 15:30:39

Thinking about it, never mind what will happen in the countries dominated by Roman Catholic thought, they move far too slowly to bring change within the span of a generation or less. It's what will happen in the US once this terrible disease gets going, if it does, that will have the greatest impact upon any society. True American exceptionalism will come to the fore. That is the form of exceptionalism which has always dominated American life: the rules apply to everyone else, but when something happens to me the rules don't apply. The 'law' is supremely important and people ought to observe it even if it is unfair, unless that unfairness is happening to me.

Women, of no matter what political stripe, will demand an abortion if they think for one moment that their child might have microcephaly. This will occur during an election year no less. One of the primary tools that both parties use to keep their voters in line will hover near that gray area where it gets taken off of the political agenda. Democrats will probably benefit, but find themselves oddly unable to capitalize upon it because of how much suffering people will feel they are undergoing. Individuals will take pause to think. Longer term more of them might ponder what other things, such as why wages haven't risen much over the past 40 years, could be just as stupidly and meanly held as part of the chronic order of things.
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Re: Zika virus

Postby Tanada » Mon 25 Jan 2016, 15:36:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'I')'m not looking for a 'silver bullet.' But I don't know of another disease that has prompted government officials to tell people not to have any more kids. Do you?


AIDS comes to mind, transmission from mother to child is very high. The same is true of many others like Hepatitis, or Syphilis that also come from unprotected sex and/or drug abuse.

I think the crux of your question dohboi boils down to, are healthy women scared enough by the government recommendations to have a sustained and substantial impact on birth rates? I don't think anyone can say for certain because the recommendations are a new thing, but most of the people I know including the foreign students I met way back in college have a high level of disdain for government advice. If this were not true everyone would exercise daily and eat whatever the recommended foods are this year and avoid the unapproved foods, whatever those happen to be this year. There is a reason why people discount government advice, it changes direction with every breeze of new thinking that wafts through.
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Re: Zika virus

Postby vox_mundi » Mon 25 Jan 2016, 16:07:21

To be totally clinical about it, the problem is not that it only affects a few thousand or that it only affect 0.1 percent of all births. The problem is that each one of those births will require the full-time attention of 5-8 adults over the course of each and every day the kid is alive - maybe 15-20 years or more.

If somebody catches Ebola they're dead in 2 weeks and you can get back to business. These kids are going to take 20-50,000 adults out of the workforce for the foreseeable future.

It's the same problem with Alzheimer's and Autism
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: Zika virus

Postby Newfie » Mon 25 Jan 2016, 22:09:00

I think you've got it backwards Vox. Those kids will MAKE 20,000 to 50,000 jobs. They are a boon to the economy.

I don't like it, but it is the way it works. Sadly.

......
One of my kids was born a bit premature and ended up in a neonatal ICU. They rein flatbed his lung and gave him some O2 and he was doing fine. Ther was a second premie, much earlier. A wee tiny tot but 2 months old. All full of tubes and such, a single handful. But his prognosis was good. Once he got over this bump he was expected to grow and thrive. Another very healthy looking newborn was there. Full term, good weight, no obvious signs of anything wrong. Obviously I asked the nurs and was told the baby had some kind of brain issue. It's been many years. Ow but I recall it as "Hydrocephalus". In any case the kid was essentially born with only a brain stem, no functioning brain. The nurse was reluctant to sptalk but noted that the child had had no visitors and was likely to die of "natural" causes in a few weeks.

When I was in grade school in NJ During the late 50's or early 60's we had an Encephalitis epidemic, carried by mosquitos. Several children died including a kid a year ahead of me in school. He was a bully and made my poor miserable life a nightmare. The bastard! Harsh words but heartfelt. I'm sure his parents grieved his passing, I didn't. I really don't know any more about it than that but that's when they started spraying with DDT I think. DDT and some kind oil, to put a sheen on the water and deprive the larva of O2. A "fogger" in the back of an open jeep. I used to love to run behind the jeep in and out of the fog. They also used biplane dusters to spray the salt marshes. The state had a whole unit set up to fight mosquitoes. The NJ mosquito Control Commissionor some such thing.
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Re: Zika virus

Postby vox_mundi » Mon 25 Jan 2016, 22:23:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I') think you've got it backwards Vox. Those kids will MAKE 20,000 to 50,000 jobs. They are a boon to the economy.

I don't like it, but it is the way it works. Sadly.

In the U.S. maybe, but most of these cases are in villages where the annual income is $2-3000. No one's getting paid to take care of these kids and ancillary medical bills will eat up any income they have.

What was the Spartans approach to this situation?
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: Zika virus

Postby Newfie » Mon 25 Jan 2016, 22:33:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vox_mundi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'I') think you've got it backwards Vox. Those kids will MAKE 20,000 to 50,000 jobs. They are a boon to the economy.

I don't like it, but it is the way it works. Sadly.

In the U.S. maybe, but most of these cases are in villages where the annual income is $2-3000. No one's getting paid to take care of these kids and ancillary medical bills will eat up any income they have.

What was the Spartans approach to this situation?


Yes, I thought you meant that number in the US. So I gave a US answer.

Not just the Spartans. Many other cultures have had a much more pragmatic approach to children than we do. My Wife, having grown up in Grmany has heard a different history. Apparently it was common to leave unwanted children at cross roads. And many churches in France had special doors with holes where the "package" could be deposited without giving away the "donors" identity.

Read Jack Londons story about kids working the knitting mills sometime to get an idea of how we cherish our young.

We live in a special place surfing a special time. It allows us to have refined and high ideals. We should be grateful.
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Re: Zika virus

Postby vox_mundi » Tue 26 Jan 2016, 12:15:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', '.').. We live in a special place surfing a special time. It allows us to have refined and high ideals. We should be grateful.

Agreed.

If it was up to the Spartans, half of us would be dead by now.

Looks like nature is trying to even the score ...

Mosquitos capable of carrying Zika virus found in Washington, D.C.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.').. Zika virus is transmitted by the mosquito species Aedes aegypti, also a carrier of dengue fever and chikungunya, two other tropical diseases. Though Aedes aegypti is not native to North America, researchers at the University of Notre Dame who study the species have reported a discovery of a major population of the mosquitos in a Capitol Hill neighborhood in Washington, D.C.

To add insult to injury, the team identified genetic evidence that these mosquitoes have overwintered for at least the past four years, meaning they are adapting for persistence in a northern climate well out of their normal range.


While the Washington population is currently disease-free, Notre Dame Department of Biological Sciences professor David Severson, who led the team, noted that the ability of this species to survive in a northern climate is troublesome. This mosquito is typically restricted to tropical and subtropical regions of the world and not found farther north in the United States than Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and South Carolina.

"What this means for the scientific world," said Severson, who led the team, "is some mosquito species are finding ways to survive in normally restrictive environments by taking advantage of underground refugia. Therefore, a real potential exists for active transmission of mosquito-borne tropical diseases in popular places like the National Mall. Hopefully, politicians will take notice of events like this in their own backyard and work to increase funding levels on mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases."
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