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Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby Pops » Wed 20 Jan 2016, 18:07:49

The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby Shaved Monkey » Wed 20 Jan 2016, 18:13:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'T')he other point about overdoing automation is the fact that ultimately salaried staff spend more than unemployed people.

You need to give them enough to go shopping through the front doors and not through the windows.
Or security costs go up and profits go down for the rich.
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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby Shaved Monkey » Wed 20 Jan 2016, 18:29:50

The Dutch have a good idea paying Artists a living wage,that could work.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Dutch government realised that working artists are a tremendous asset to a society and to its economy too.
After all, most visitors come to Amsterdam precisely because of its rich cultural history and collections of work by painters like Rembrandt and Van Gogh.
Art gives life to a city and is part of renewing the stock of intellectual property.
And, more prosaically, cultural industries account for an ever-growing share of Amsterdam’s jobs.
So even to a businesslike Dutch mentality, helping struggling artists to find their feet financially makes good sense.
That is why the Netherlands started a scheme called WWIK (Wet Werk en Inkomen Kunstenaars – ‘Work and Income for Artists Act’) that gives practising artists a guaranteed basic income, but with the obligation to generate a certain amount of income themselves

you could also add the Cuban model of turning unemployed people into urban farmers of organic food.
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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby C8 » Wed 20 Jan 2016, 18:36:00

There are some finer points to this dynamic that I want to underline a little more.

1. The overpopulation IS in the poorer areas of the world (which are less automated) but as this group gets larger and larger it feeds in a larger migration stream into developed nations- 5% of 2 billion Africans going to Europe is a lot more people than 5% of 2 million Africans (or Latinos going into the US). The result is that, for example, the US population is growing quite rapidly- but mainly by migration and births from that. People don't stay in one place.

2. Once migrants from poor, overpopulated areas enter a developed nation- they continue to have large families (often made possible by social welfare benefits and, or, cheap waged jobs)- this grows the developed populations even more (almost all of future increases in US birthrates is due to migrants).

3. The automation is increasing more rapidly in the wealthier nations- thus reducing the need for workers (hence the chart I posted in the OP).

4. This sets up a dynamic mismatch between an exploding poor population that is migrating into wealthier nations and job loses in those nations due to increased automation.

5. Large groups of idle people can lead to massive, destabilizing movements, political warfare between the "makers and the takers", and eventually, economic bankruptcy as the only way to subsidize a growing number of non-workers is through borrowing (see Greece).
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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby Newfie » Thu 21 Jan 2016, 10:31:58

C8,
Your #5 is spot on. The US teeters on this now.

Have you read Throuex "Last Train to Zona Verde"? He is a odd travel writer who walks. Very experienced in Africa. In this book he tries to walk up the West coast of Africa, but gets discouraged in the Congo by the boards of folks who sit around doing nothing amidst filth. They do nothing to help themselves, they are simply mired in collective depression. It makes it easier to understand how the war lords take control, they give people hope, something to do.
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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby careinke » Thu 21 Jan 2016, 17:22:37

I've heard that if Walmart had to pay a $15 minimum wage, the stores would no longer make a profit. Contrary to popular belief a large companies primary purpose for existing is to make a profit. It is not to provide well paying jobs, or even a product to it's customer. If it's not making money, it is not useful to the company.

That said, I would expect companies to try and reduce more employees as their cost rises.

On the other hand maybe if we raised the min wage to $20 we could get rid of all the big box stores. I'm sure we would be so much better off. :roll:
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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby Pops » Thu 21 Jan 2016, 17:43:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'I')'ve heard that if Walmart had to pay a $15 minimum wage, the stores would no longer make a profit. Contrary to popular belief a large companies primary purpose for existing is to make a profit.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')etail workers in the U.S. earned an average of $14.95 an hour in December, up 3.6% from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With the raises planned for February, average hourly earnings will be $13.38 for Wal-Mart’s full-time store employees
http://www.wsj.com/articles/wal-mart-to ... 1453315937


The Waltons are the richest family in the world.
They got there the good old American Way, screwing everyone just as much as possible.

It never ceases to amaze me how much Americans love the idea that someone is getting screwed a little more than they are. Some kind of misplaced feeling of superiority comes through in every glowwing endorsement about how cool it is that the Waltons can get away with sticking it to everyone from suppliers to employees, to customers to taxpayers. A perverted hero worship or beat-me-daddy, authoritarian, masochism or something.

Criminy!
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby radon1 » Thu 21 Jan 2016, 18:11:17

The actions of large groups of idle people and their political warfare have everything to do with the wishes, wants, ambitions, aspirations, power instincts etc. of these people, and have nothing to do whatsoever with "overpopulation" or automation.
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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby Shaved Monkey » Thu 21 Jan 2016, 18:14:54

I imagine this craft trend thats happening now is part of the solution.
Craft beer,craft burgers,craft gin,hand knitted cardigans,slow roasted barbecued meat,traditional strop razor shaves, artisinal cheese makers,tattoo parlours,hole in the wall bars, and sourdough woodfired bakeries selling bread for $6.50 a loaf were the stoopermarket sells the robot made bread for 85 c
The solution may be that we all ride bikes, grow beards and make something unique and expensive to sell to the people who still work in suits.
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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby careinke » Thu 21 Jan 2016, 18:41:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'I')'ve heard that if Walmart had to pay a $15 minimum wage, the stores would no longer make a profit. Contrary to popular belief a large companies primary purpose for existing is to make a profit.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')etail workers in the U.S. earned an average of $14.95 an hour in December, up 3.6% from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With the raises planned for February, average hourly earnings will be $13.38 for Wal-Mart’s full-time store employees
http://www.wsj.com/articles/wal-mart-to ... 1453315937


The Waltons are the richest family in the world.
They got there the good old American Way, screwing everyone just as much as possible.

It never ceases to amaze me how much Americans love the idea that someone is getting screwed a little more than they are. Some kind of misplaced feeling of superiority comes through in every glowwing endorsement about how cool it is that the Waltons can get away with sticking it to everyone from suppliers to employees, to customers to taxpayers. A perverted hero worship or beat-me-daddy, authoritarian, masochism or something.

Criminy!


So you advocate closing all the Walmart's because someone made a profit, probably including you if you own a general income fund?
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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby Shaved Monkey » Thu 21 Jan 2016, 18:50:47

Depends on whether you value ethics over profit
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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby careinke » Thu 21 Jan 2016, 18:54:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shaved Monkey', 'D')epends on whether you value ethics over profit

How about jobs (Prime directive), over ethics?
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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby Pops » Thu 21 Jan 2016, 19:08:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'S')o you advocate closing all the Walmart's because someone made a profit, probably including you if you own a general income fund?

Strawman much?

The average of all retail is $15/hr. Now. Already.
Obviously $15/hr is not a socialist wet dream, just a Walton nightmare.

The Waltons of course are the world's biggest beneficiaries of evil social programs because food stamps and medicaid allow the Walton's to pay way below the industry average. Talk about the dole.

But yet they are heros.
Amazing.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby careinke » Thu 21 Jan 2016, 19:39:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'S')o you advocate closing all the Walmart's because someone made a profit, probably including you if you own a general income fund?

Strawman much?

The average of all retail is $15/hr. Now. Already.
Obviously $15/hr is not a socialist wet dream, just a Walton nightmare.

The Waltons of course are the world's biggest beneficiaries of evil social programs because food stamps and medicaid allow the Walton's to pay way below the industry average. Talk about the dole.

But yet they are heros.
Amazing.


This is why I would like to see a limit on the highest paid executive to 50 times the lowest paid employee. Forget minimum wage, it's a distraction.
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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby Shaved Monkey » Thu 21 Jan 2016, 20:11:09

Australias unemployment rate is under 6% minimum wage is $656.90 per week, calculated on the basis of a week of 38 ordinary hours, or $17.29 per hour.
Casual loading—of 25 per cent.
So if you worked at Walmart in Australia as a casual you would be on $21.60 ish an hour
If you worked weekends its time and half and double time depending on the hours and shift
So you could be on $42 an hour on a Sunday.

Theres no Walmart here though we did have Waltons department store and they saw Coles Variety and turned it into Walmart (back in the states).
Coles variety was dismantled in Australia back to separate stores.

But Maccas has to pay those wages and still make a profit and employ people.
We dont really tip in Australia waitresses get payed minimum wage plus weekend loadings.
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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby ralfy » Thu 21 Jan 2016, 20:25:00

The catch with automation is that it is profitable only if sales of what is produced go up. If unemployment goes up and leads to lower sales, then automation does not help.

Also, increasing sales eventually leads to expanding markets, especially given competition. And expanding markets ultimately require growing populations.

Thus, for automation to flourish, there has to be increasing employment and population (so that there will be more consumers to purchase what is produced). This, of course, implies expanding biocapacity, which is obviously not the case:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse
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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby radon1 » Fri 22 Jan 2016, 01:50:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', ' ')And expanding markets ultimately require growing populations.


This assumes that the entire existing global population has already been incorporated into the industrial/market economy. But this is not the case. Not even a slightest bit close. Eg., out of 1.5b or so of the Chinese, only about 200-300m have been involved by now, maybe a bit more.

Otherwise fair observations.
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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby Pops » Fri 22 Jan 2016, 10:28:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'T')his is why I would like to see a limit on the highest paid executive to 50 times the lowest paid employee. Forget minimum wage, it's a distraction.

I saw where you said that elsewhere, I haven't decided whether I agree or not. LOL
I think the problem is the owners, not employees or officers.

Walmart is the poster child of race to the bottom, high volume/low profit economics. The slogan is Always The Lowest Overhead, Sam was just cheaper than than anyone else and realized before everyone else that payroll was the THE biggest place to save money.

Really, WM is successful for the very reasons in the OP.

First, women entered the labor market and wages stagnated so undercutting the labor market was easy.

Second, from the '70s and a certain critical mass of sales, computers tracked inventory and increased stock turnover beyond what any mom & pop could even dream of. Turnover is the key to ROI and WM was the hands down winner.

That was the combination that made all the old moms and pops toast. The little guy with 1 or 2 employees had no labor advantage and were at the mercy of manufacturers and distributors and took what they were required to take, when they could get it, and at the price set by the distributer.

WM changed the entire manufacturer/retailer paradigm, once upon a time manufacturers made what they thought customers wanted and that's what stores stocked. WM had the power to turn that around, they told manufacturers what to make, when to make it, and what the price would be.

The net effect of all that cost cutting was increased profit, WMs profit surpassed Kmart way before their sales volume did. BUT, where there were once little profitable business all along the way from factory to shelf, all of the profits were wrung out. Now on one end there are factories that compete to the bone for WM business (something like 500 suppliers have offices in Bentonville Arkansas) and there is walmart.


So in the world of race to the bottom, profit at any cost, the WM way is winning.
But what happens when you reach the bottom?
Henry ford knew if he wanted to sell cars, workers needed to earn enough to pay so he started by paying his employees well.
Sam Walton's plan was just the opposite, he led by paying the lowest wages possible, the effect is now people can't shop anywhere except the cut rate store—with a SNAP card.

(To be fair Sam had a profit sharing plan that made lots of employees pretty well off... but they ditched that idea after Sam died)

--
So.
The thing I think is needed is not a law or a regulation.
The thing needed is neither a business or government action.
The thing needed is a return of some kind of worker/consumer coalition.
A little respect for the worker, a willingness to pay a little more (or buy one chachka less) so the people picking up your candy wrappers can make a living.

I just can't figure out the popular animosity toward the low wage worker, the unemployed or unemployable, from the person just a step above—or even in the same boat!

...and the idolization of the Trumps and Romney's.

That alone is the thing that makes me the doomiest.

.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Automation + overpopulation = unemployment: solutions?

Postby Newfie » Fri 22 Jan 2016, 10:35:26

The problem is that "labor saving devices", be it a tractor or a robot, have made much of humanity redundant.

We have tried to fight this through capitalisism>Consumerisim and have pretty well ruined the world in the process.

Take out all the idiotic, do nothing, jobs in the economy, pretty much most of the "service sector" and you don't have a lot of real necessary jobs left.

Walmart is not the problem. Walmart is a symptom.

But no worries, it will all self correct in the foreseeable future.
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