A deflationary spiral?
Downward pressure on oil coupled with the need for SAudi Aravia et al to maintain their standard of living in face of IS means they can't reduce production.
Cheap oil getting cheaper is dangerous.
How to stop the slide? Start a war in the ME, restrict production, create more usage.
Not a prediction. A musing.
PeakOil is You
What will 2016 bring?
Re: What will 2016 bring?
by Newfie » Sat 02 Jan 2016, 09:20:00
-
Newfie - Forum Moderator
- Posts: 18651
- Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 04:00:00
- Location: Between Canada and Carribean
Re: What will 2016 bring?
by Cog » Sat 02 Jan 2016, 09:39:37
Why is cheap oil such a problem for everyone here? I'm actually liking it quite a lot and using my disposable income to buy more guns and ammo. The consumer is getting a much deserved break and suddenly its a crisis?
-
Cog - Fusion
- Posts: 13416
- Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 03:00:00
- Location: Northern Kekistan
Re: What will 2016 bring?
by Outcast_Searcher » Sun 03 Jan 2016, 02:47:12
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'A')nother recession is a likely event.
What's wrong with the one we got?
Where? In the U.S., where we have overall growth, not recession?
Are you one of the folks who just makes economic stuff up? Words like recession and depression have precise meanings.
We have PLENTY of problems with ongoing BAU growth, debt, pollution, AGW etc. Why do so many on this site feel compelled to make up stuff about economics to support their version of reality where a crash is imminent all the time?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
-
Outcast_Searcher - COB
- Posts: 10142
- Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
- Location: Central KY
Re: What will 2016 bring?
by Pops » Sun 03 Jan 2016, 12:31:49
The big dot I see is China's debt balloon. Their debt doubled in just a few years from 150% to 300% of GDP. Theirs was the last big economy to go full credit card and everyone globally benefited from the boom. Everyone card is now maxed out.
All major economies are well over 250% debt to GDP. China has a good trade balance and savings rate. Still, that is a big bubble.
Structurally, we are in the middle of the WWII baby boomer retirement. Boomers were big spenders, big earners. But now they are downsizing, retiring. The populations of all the Old World countries are all aging for the same reason (which is why we allow in so many young immigrants) and our economies are slowing.
— and peak oil.
Moreover, we spent beaucoup trillions of that debt over the last few years bailing out the rich folks. Government assumed their losses and underwrote their next binge at the tables... all the while cutting their taxes...
while the poor folks were either getting shot or shooting themselves.
--
A person may not agree with anything Trump or Sanders says but one should at least appreciate the depth of emotion in the reactions of the people who do agree.
American Spring anyone?
.
All major economies are well over 250% debt to GDP. China has a good trade balance and savings rate. Still, that is a big bubble.
Structurally, we are in the middle of the WWII baby boomer retirement. Boomers were big spenders, big earners. But now they are downsizing, retiring. The populations of all the Old World countries are all aging for the same reason (which is why we allow in so many young immigrants) and our economies are slowing.
— and peak oil.
Moreover, we spent beaucoup trillions of that debt over the last few years bailing out the rich folks. Government assumed their losses and underwrote their next binge at the tables... all the while cutting their taxes...
while the poor folks were either getting shot or shooting themselves.
--
A person may not agree with anything Trump or Sanders says but one should at least appreciate the depth of emotion in the reactions of the people who do agree.
American Spring anyone?
.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-
Pops - Elite
- Posts: 19746
- Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac
Re: What will 2016 bring?
by MonteQuest » Sun 03 Jan 2016, 16:48:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'A')re you one of the folks who just makes economic stuff up?
No, I am afraid I am not one of those.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
-
MonteQuest - Expert
- Posts: 16593
- Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
- Location: Westboro, MO
Re: What will 2016 bring?
by Satori » Tue 05 Jan 2016, 09:28:43
Calculated probabilities conclude "WORST CASE LIKELIHOOD" increases from 18% to 100% over the next 90 days
https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/727
ya got 90 days till TSHTF !!!
https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/727
ya got 90 days till TSHTF !!!
-
Satori - Lignite
- Posts: 393
- Joined: Mon 29 Oct 2007, 03:00:00
Re: What will 2016 bring?
by Pops » Tue 05 Jan 2016, 10:07:57
Wingnut Woodstock
Vanilla ISIS
Y'all Qaeda
Vanilla ISIS
Y'all Qaeda
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
-
Pops - Elite
- Posts: 19746
- Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac
Re: What will 2016 bring?
by AgentR11 » Tue 05 Jan 2016, 11:24:19
WW III will gradually become more obvious and hard to manage. Think late 30's for similar parallels.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
- AgentR11
- Light Sweet Crude
- Posts: 6589
- Joined: Tue 22 Mar 2011, 09:15:51
- Location: East Texas
Re: What will 2016 bring?
by Subjectivist » Mon 25 Apr 2016, 10:54:40
The most contentious American election in the last fifty years?
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
- Subjectivist
- Volunteer
- Posts: 4705
- Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 07:38:26
- Location: Northwest Ohio
Re: What will 2016 bring?
by onlooker » Mon 25 Apr 2016, 11:19:32
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'T')he most contentious American election in the last fifty years?
How about the worse candidates in at least the last 50 years.
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
-
onlooker - Fission
- Posts: 10957
- Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 13:49:04
- Location: NY, USA
