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Oil Painting By Numbers

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Oil Painting By Numbers

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 04 Jul 2005, 20:21:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]This year, 2005, may well turn out to be the peak year for global oil production. In the seasonally strong fourth quarter, demand is expected to be 86.5 million barrels per day – that’s 4 million barrels per day higher than current demand in the second quarter. Where this extra production is supposed to come from is leaving many of us scratching our heads. Be that as it may, the moment of reckoning is quickly approaching.


http://321energy.com/editorials/sprott/ ... 70505.html
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Unread postby Riverside » Mon 04 Jul 2005, 20:58:10

Good article, but for me the most interesting thing was the author.


"Eric Sprott, CA & Sasha Solunac, CFA
Sprott Asset Management

July 5th, 2005

Sprott Asset Management Inc. is a Toronto based private investment company with over US$1.9 billion in assets under management primarily for institutions, pension plans, endowments and high net worth individuals. "

I wonder how open they are about PO to people who want them to manage their investments?
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Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Tue 05 Jul 2005, 01:26:40

If the patterns on oil price fluctuations hold up, we may be off into the lower mid $60 (62-63) range this week. A strong drop last week is already moving equally strong back up again. How long until this affects gasoline prices is one thing I wonder about. What's keeping prices of gas steady?
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Unread postby gandolf » Tue 05 Jul 2005, 04:09:48

Its not steady in Australia. It can vary as much as 15cents in a day.
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Unread postby shakespear1 » Tue 05 Jul 2005, 04:44:53

In Poland gasoline prices are not steady. Rising :)

The Sprott people are keeping a pulse on the situation so as to make sure they are not behind on warning of a posibble problem ahead. That means staying on top of the situation in the eyes of your clients. :roll:
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Unread postby Sys1 » Tue 05 Jul 2005, 07:34:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ore and more experts (executives of oilfield services companies like Schlumberger and Baker Hughes for example) are now saying publicly that the average decline rate of the world’s oil wells is 8%! – a shockingly high hurdle to overcome with new production.


This is the worst news i've ever read reagarding peak oil. 8% decline means hard landing whatever governments will do. I don't even consider houses bubble, pharaonic debts or the fact that most of the new oil to come will get heavier and heavier...
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Unread postby KevO » Tue 05 Jul 2005, 07:35:02

mind you BP's production is up!
see
http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArtic ... -BP-DC.XML
so the prises will doubtless go down again.
will they?
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Unread postby thor » Tue 05 Jul 2005, 08:14:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'm')ind you BP's production is up!
see
http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsArtic ... -BP-DC.XML
so the prises will doubtless go down again.
will they?


It will have no significant impact on prices I think. Demand is growing rapidly and the alleged BP oil production increase is readily aborbed by existing depletion rates as per Chris Skrebowsky.
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Unread postby Permanently_Baffled » Tue 05 Jul 2005, 08:32:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ore and more experts (executives of oilfield services companies like Schlumberger and Baker Hughes for example) are now saying publicly that the average decline rate of the world’s oil wells is 8%! – a shockingly high hurdle to overcome with new production.


If you look at the production of the nations in decline and compare the 2003 and 2004 figure you get an average of -4.9%.(excluding the US)

13.9 mpd in 2004
14.7 mpd in 2003
Decline rate = -4.9%

If you include the US figures , then the average decline rate is -3.9%.

21.2 mpd
22.0 mpd
Decline rate = -3.9%

Where does the 8% figure come from? [smilie=eusa_think.gif]

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Unread postby shakespear1 » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 15:12:56

Sys1

Where did you see Schlumberger state the decline rate is 8%?
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Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 31 Aug 2025, 11:09:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ore and more experts (executives of oilfield services companies like Schlumberger and Baker Hughes for example) are now saying publicly that the average decline rate of the world’s oil wells is 8%! – a shockingly high hurdle to overcome with new production.


This is the worst news i've ever read reagarding peak oil. 8% decline means hard landing whatever governments will do. I don't even consider houses bubble, pharaonic debts or the fact that most of the new oil to come will get heavier and heavier...


Quite an interesting turn of events then, isn't it? Two service companies without a single researcher on oil and gas assessments back then. Nearly all the new oil added to the world since all these bad things didn't happen has been light, sweet crude. From the one country that was the shining example of peak oil in 1970 no less, and launched websites like this one.

However, the 8% is a reasonable number except for one thing....that is underlying natural decline. Some number like that has existed going back to Drake's well. Doesn't take much research to blurt out that and then try and scare peak oil amateurs.

Not the right point. The right point is....can existing activity offset said decline? When it does, you get stability in production. When activity is more than that, you get increase in production. Less than that, you get slight decline (ZERO requirement of 8%, but something less than underlying decline).

Peak oilers never seemed to understand what is meant by underlying decline.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Oil Painting By Numbers

Unread postby AgentR11 » Wed 03 Sep 2025, 21:32:58

Bumpy plateau, managed as a plateau by the largest players both with geopolitical and plain economic methods. Whether through pirating ships transporting Russian oil, or Saudi Arabia adjusting their output up and down as an economic choice, the world seems to have settled around this 90 mb/day rate. It seems to be enough, yes? Price is relatively stable. Fuel is available for its routine and regular uses. Grain makes it from field to grocer with minimal drama. That's what Peak Oil looks like.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
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Re: Oil Painting By Numbers

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 04 Sep 2025, 11:58:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'B')umpy plateau, managed as a plateau by the largest players both with geopolitical and plain economic methods.

Exactly right. If peak oilers wouldn't have been so enthusiastic to pitch endtimes scenarios, (gold, guns and ammo here in the states) and stuck with this, it would have been a difficult angle to attack from the science/technical/industry perspective. But they got to full speed on the stupid train and just wouldn't stop.

For awhile back then, it almost seemed like a race to out-stupid the next gang. One gang says, peak oil causing food price to increase because fuel costs increase for farmers. Someone upps the ante with starvation. And then piles MZBs on top of it for good measure. Partially believable at first, but they just had to keep going until they arrived at full stupid.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '
')Whether through pirating ships transporting Russian oil, or Saudi Arabia adjusting their output up and down as an economic choice, the world seems to have settled around this 90 mb/day rate.

IES from EIA, crude oil and lease condensate only, like 80-82 mmbbl/d since 2018 when the last peak happened. Through 2024. Everyone seems reasonable with the price, companies are making money, the last rental car I drove got 44 mpg on the highway (SHIT FIRE! its been awhile since I used a rental car but DA-YAM that is pretty decent 80mph on interstates). And of course most of my driving is on electric and that is dirt cheap across the board. Tires, electricity, windshield wiper fluid....not much else.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '
') It seems to be enough, yes?

Yes.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', '
')Price is relatively stable. Fuel is available for its routine and regular uses. Grain makes it from field to grocer with minimal drama. That's what Peak Oil looks like.


For 7 years now...yup. No wonder this place is dead right? No sexiness at all to peak oil. Just....BAU.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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