[shortonoil]

"So all over the world cheap money is printed and continually invested in oil failing operations. In the US it is shale (shale actually requires $80 oil). Oil production is propped up with bad money. "

That is what we refer to as the cannibalization process. It is where assets are converted into consumables, and is accomplished through debt formation. That is why we are not yet seeing shortages on the store selves. We are consuming our capital stock. It is what must be occurring as oil moves from a net energy source to a net energy sink; that happened at the energy half way point which occurred no later than 2012.

To permit this to happen existing debt was used to secure new currency creation. This of course is a Ponzi scheme were old debt is used to buy new debt. The old debt is never retired, and because it produces compound interest piled upon compound interest the entire pyramid grows exponentially.

We believe that the canary in the mine is likely to be oil, as petroleum is responsible for 38% of the world's economy from both its production, and consumption side. The present price structure, which is unsustainable long term, was partially the result of the currency creation process described above. It allows for the production of product for which there is no market. Therefore, the collapse of the present monetary scheme is likely to be preceded by the collapse of the petroleum production system. Watch for dysfunction in the petroleum industry to determine when the present system is likely to fail.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'T')he stock market is a deceptive indicator of the real world economy. So much so, that the TPTB had to bifurcate Wall street from Main street. Even more so in the last 15 years or so with the repeal Glass-Steagall and the frenzied speculation that was even mentioned by then Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan in his "irrational exuberance" quote. So what we have now is basically gambling in the form of derivatives etc. Not in touch with the real economy and much less with the working classes.

[onlooker]

I think Ennui, you are precisely correct in that no hard lines exist between physical realities and market dynamics. Investors and speculators go by hunches, preferences and ponzi dynamics as much as real world data. By the same token it is also true that real world economic dynamics can and do influence the markets and vice-versa. So the nature of the markets does not discount the notion that peak oil had some influence in 2008 on market perceptions. Markets can and do taken into account anything and everything. However, more and more they are acting like casinos in that they are speculating and creating a gambling type of atmosphere because their is lots of money to be made in this manner. I would add lots of money to be lost as well.

[shortonoil]

"My point is that bubbles can and do occur without having anything to do with peak-oil."

John Law might have said the same thing; just before he collapsed the entire French economy. Of course, he was betting that another finite resource; gold, could be multiplied perpetually through financial mechanisms. Just because we are attempting to do the same thing with the life blood of modern civilization; oil, should be completely ignored.

When doomers wade into the waters of historical reality they are really neophytes in the field,

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'W')hen doomers wade into the waters of historical reality they are really neophytes in the field,

[ennui2]

More data to contradict the thread's premise.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e ... UE20151217

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Actually ennui, your post is more than funny. It's nutz.

[radon1]

Of course we are in a global recession. Commodity prices are in a free fall, transportation is down, international trade is down. What else.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('radon1', 'O')f course we are in a global recession. Commodity prices are in a free fall, transportation is down, international trade is down. What else.

[onlooker]

http://money.cnn.com/2015/12/16/news/ec ... index.html

Apparently the Federal Reserve disagrees, feeling that we have recovered enough to raise interest rates. Maybe they know something we don't haha.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'h')ttp://money.cnn.com/2015/12/16/news/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-hike/index.html

Apparently the Federal Reserve disagrees, feeling that we have recovered enough to raise interest rates. Maybe they know something we don't haha.

[Pops]

That US drillers pulled a surprise >4mmbd of frack juice from their kazoo is no small thing.
Likewise that the US gov put however many trillion on the card to keep the lights on at the ATM.
Those are things others either couldn do or didn't do.

In fact EU N Sea oil production went the opposite direction, falling by a similar amount to the US increase.
AND instead of propping the economy many countries undercut it via "asterity."

I think considering just those two, pretty anomalous dots, it is kinda hard to make any sweeping statements, not that we won't. LOL It could turn out that the US got lucky or maybe we just got a weekend pass. Worst case is we created zombies who'll eat us for lunch.

[sjn]

Most likely the US$ is still perceived as the dominant global reserve currency. For as long as that lasts the US has in effect a free pass to deficit spend.

[dissident]

Everything is hunky dory in the US, is it?

http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-holi ... NE20151130

Somebody needs to get a clue about how rip roaring the economy of the USA is and it isn't me.

[Pops]

Let me review...

nope no one said hunky-dory.

Nor rip roaring

or even hinted it is in especially stable condition.

Pretty sure somebody needs to get a clue about comprehending a post longer and more nuanced than a bumper sticker.

[ennui2]

More mildly positive news.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e ... 1A20151224

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Claims have been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a buoyant labor market, for 42 consecutive weeks. That is the longest stretch since the early 1970s.

[ennui2]

http://in.reuters.com/article/usa-econo ... RI20160106

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Labor market strength suggests the economy's fundamentals remain healthy, and some economists say that could keep the Federal Reserve on course to raise interest rates again in March.

[dolanbaker]

There's only one word on the Chinese trading floors and that is SELL!
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35248798
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')rading on the mainland Chinese markets was suspended for the day, after shares plunged more than 7% for the second time this week.

The "circuit breaker" rule, a mechanism introduced to stem volatility in the market, was triggered in the first 30 minutes of trading.

Investors are nervous after the central bank moved to weaken the yuan.

This indicates that Beijing is looking to boost exports as China's economy may be slowing more than expected.