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The result of continued exponential growth?

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The result of continued exponential growth?

Unread postby some_guy282 » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 02:58:38

I just listened to a fascinating program from On Point. The title of the program was Evolving into Superman, and the author of a new book that discusses technological alteration of human beings is interviewed. For instance, humans that can go for a week without sleep, or live off of fat cells and not eat for days, regenerate lost limbs, have total recall memory, super intelligence... It's predicted that if technology keeps advancing at its current rate, some of these things will be available within 15 to 20 years. Can you picture a future in which someone could buy such enhancements like people buy plastic surgery today? And what would be the ultimate outcome of this kind of technological alteration of human evolution? Of course these predictions presuppose an increased production and use of energy (oil) to power this exponential growth in technology. Still, it's an interesting topic of discussion.

Is this the future we have to look forward to if a magic silver bullet for Peak Oil was found? Not very appealing to me. Our technology really has surpassed our humanity, and I don't think efforts to use technology to enhance our humanity will help much.
In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule. – Nietzsche

Time makes more converts than reason. – Thomas Paine

History is a set of lies agreed upon. – Napoleon Bonaparte
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Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 03:11:33

Soon it will be possible to grow new adult teeth, but nothing to eat with them.
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Unread postby linlithgowoil » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 04:40:50

even if we solve peak oil, there's no way any of that stuff will be happening in 15-20 years. more like 150-200 years. i really think people over estimate our abilities in these type of things.
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Unread postby gego » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 04:55:05

When people hunted and gathered with little excess, most human energy went into basic survival. It was not until agricultural excess that some human energy was freed from basics to develop "technology". As more energy became available more technology was developed, which in turn made it possible for us to use energy more rapidly. Jet airplanes use more energy to get us from point a to point b than did travel on horseback.

As energy becomes less available, technology will become less available. These pie in the sky views of the future are nice, and if we had unlimited energy might come to pass, but once the fossil fuels are gone, so will most technology go also.
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Unread postby Doly » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 05:02:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'T')hese pie in the sky views of the future are nice, and if we had unlimited energy might come to pass, but once the fossil fuels are gone, so will most technology go also.


Most technology? I'm skeptical here. There is a lot of technology that doesn't need a whole lot of energy. The whole of electronics is pretty low energy.
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Unread postby Teclo » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 05:38:47

Isn't the ironic thing that had there been adequate preperation we could have probably developed new energy technologys instead of wasting money and time on senseless things, like an ever increasing standard of living for a minority. Its one thing to not share wealth around quite another to do so even enough to stave off your own collapse and doom your own children. How absolutely blind our leaders are, who's the fool, the fool or the fool who follows him?

No-one has even agreed what the human 'project' is for, or what we want. This is the great thing about peak oil at last we will have to ask those questions

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Re: The result of continued exponential growth?

Unread postby shady28 » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 05:57:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('some_guy282', '.')..humans that can go for a week without sleep, or live off of fat cells and not eat for days, regenerate lost limbs, have total recall memory, super intelligence... It's predicted that if technology keeps advancing at its current rate, some of these things will be available within 15 to 20 years...


I used to believe such things too. I'm not going to say it isn't going to be possible, but 15-20 years? Not happening.

The more I learn about science in general. the more I realize how weak science really is.

Did you know, for example, we have never yet developed a cure for a single virus? I'm talking a cure here - not an innoculation (which simply stimulates the bodys immune system).

Technology over the last 30 years has really fallen far short of expectations in virtually every area. Consider our vaunted computer technology (I'm a programmer btw). Where are the big AI computers? Where are the computers with sophisticated vision systems? Where are the computers that can take an off the cuff question and give you a reasonable answer? Add to all this that it is becoming increasingly apparent that computer tech is now a 'mature' industry - a strong case can be made that 'Moores Law' of doubling performance broke down about 4 years ago, and in many areas of computer technology no truly breakthrough advances have been made in a decade or more.

Medicine? Ok great we mapped the human genome using a distributed computer network, but where is our cure for cancer - a major national priority and sinkhole for billions every year since the 1960s, and no cure. 'Treatable' cancers are still mostly 'you can cut it out' affairs. Yes we have better tools for cutting them out, and better tools for finding them, but we are still basically cutitng them out. There is no 'cure'.

I think most of the truly breakthrough advances in science were made between about 1900 and 1960. Consider, which was more important, the Internet or the TV? The transistor or the microchip? The telephone, or the cell phone?
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Unread postby PhilBiker » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 09:31:32

Shady28, that's my nominee for best post of the day. It can all be summed up in two words: Diminishing Returns.
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Unread postby Aaron » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 09:41:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')umans that can go for a week without sleep, or live off of fat cells and not eat for days, regenerate lost limbs, have total recall memory, super intelligence


Pretty describes me to a tee.

:)
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Unread postby 0mar » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 11:41:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')umans that can go for a week without sleep, or live off of fat cells and not eat for days, regenerate lost limbs, have total recall memory, super intelligence


Pretty describes me to a tee.

:)


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