by Outcast_Searcher » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 14:51:41
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hile some believe that depletion and thus rising costs can explain price developments, the continuous rise of global oil reserves along with the high level of pre-tax profits in the industry are clear indicators that depletion has not been a factor behind the observed oil price evolution.
Long summary here:
http://www.energypost.eu/price-oil-rose ... ans-world/ Since, reading through this long summary, talk of BAU growth, demand growth from the third world, etc. seems to be blissfully ignored -- this seems hopelessly flawed.
Assuming that, for example, Chindia won't produce a tremendous additional demand on overall oil consumption via all the new drivers that clamor for cars so their family can tour the country etc, seems myopic at best.
I'm not buying it. It sounds like another corny version of the techtopian dream to save us.
For the supply side, I don't know enough to assess confidently. But their concept that for both conventional and unconventional oil, there will globally be ongoing massive new supplies (unlocked by new tech like horizontal drilling) -- everywhere oil is produced, over the next 20 years (reflecting the American fracking revolution of the last decade) sure differs from the oft-cited opinion on this site that fracking, horizontal drilling, etc. isn't sustainable either environmentally or via economically viable supply over the long term.
And if they're right about the ongoing supply, well won't THAT be "wonderful" for the direction, pace, and impact of AGW?
So, I'm not quite ready to have the "hooray, we're saved!" party quite yet.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.