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Technocracy

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Unread postby agni » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 02:30:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Licho', 'B')ecause there was lack of direct consumer drive, goods were often inadequate or too generic. (2 models of TV must suit all. And why do you need soap with nice aroma? Central planning commision was unaware of such needs).


Licho, why is it that Linux and Wikipedia don't suffer from this problem? I don't find either of them inadequate compared to their commercial rivals. In fact, I find them both to be superior to their commercial rivals.


Things like Linux, wikipedia, and public research tend to happen when people have free time to contribute to such things. Given the vast increase in personal wealth for many people, its been possible to devote time to such things. Hungry people don't donate!
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Unread postby thor » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 03:50:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I')'m interested in why enterprises like mathematics are extremely productive, even though they are basically run in a communist fashion: equality of payment to producers, and equality of distribution to consumers.

There is a personal challenge involved in creating high quality works. That kind of challenge appeals to some (rare) people and drives them to excel for personal satisfaction rather than for wealth. This applies to mathematics, crafts, art, etc., but it is hard to conjure with respect to mass produced things. The incentive to produce a quality product seems to depend on the product in question.



Also, we should not forget that a lot of work isn't truly enjoyable, hence a financial incentitive can render the job attractive. Scientists, Linux programmer and so forth truly enjoy their activitites, this is an important point. I have yet to see a builder who truly enjoys slamming iron bars in a wet, dark environment. I wouldn't be surprised when the "working class" never thinks about their jobs, running on autopilot, or take it for granted that they'll do repetitive work.
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Unread postby Licho » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 07:08:04

Ok, so who, and why will do following in technate:
- cleaning streets and picking up and sorting waste - doing unpopular "dirty" work
- work on the fields or in mines or doing other hard, boring or dangerous manual work
- stay at work during night (why would emergency doctor stay at work at night? He can sleep just like others do. Why should person in shop stay there at night? He/she is not interested in how many goods she sells. And overwatching nuclear reactor at night? Ok, I will take it this night, but only because I live withing blast radius :-)

Machines cannot do everything, you cant have robots everywhere.. and some jobs are undesirable.
One of the long term effect of communism is crushing of "morale". People in various job have become hostile. They don't smile at you, they are not interested in their job and results they have. They feel like if they are not obliged to serve customer, and often react like an autority: "so what the hell do you want again?".
We have free market for 15 years now, but people in certain jobs (especially in state owned companies) are still very hostile, they would be fired instantly in the west..
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Unread postby Licho » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 07:37:04

Rare goods in technocracy:
some goods are simply rare and cannot be replicated:
- I'm not interested in ordinary diamond, I want natural and big one.. and some pearls too
- I want Mona Lisa original
- I want to have house at nice spot near the beach

Many people would like the above, but only few can be satisfied. What sort of system will be employed to decide which one?? Brute force? Barter? Connections and "knowing right people"?


John Denver - Wikipedia founder: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmy_Wales
He invested $500 000 into project. He now sells the system commercially, so wikipedia is one huge "advertising".
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Unread postby EnergySpin » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 07:56:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')tay at work during night (why would emergency doctor stay at work at night? He can sleep just like others do.

Because it comes with the job description. I am a doctor and I accepted I would have to stay up all night, sometimes without sleep for 44 hrs straight. No more money by the way. So this argument really makes no sense, there are some things that are outside the market economy and will never be captured by it. It is the same reason that lead highly qualified professionals to write open source software, or work for relief agencies in the 3rd world, or come up with theorems

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Why should person in shop stay there at night

This at the same passage as the doctors who work all night? I do not think that having shops open all night is a social priority.

Was it the lack of free enterprise that crushed morale or the lack of freedom of expression? Or the fact that due to the secrecy and the police snooping, people were turned against each other, afraid of each other? Or a combination? There is pretty low morale in the west as well. I am handing out anti-depressant prescriptions faster than the pharmacist can refill the inventory .. what does that mean I wonder? And as you can see in this web site, the mentality I will survive and the others will end up being my slaves (a corollary of free market enterprise thinking) is pretty widespread. Too bad that it this attitude that guarantees collapse. And yes your civil servants should be fired, as with any civil servant or public employee in the whole world.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '-') cleaning streets and picking up and sorting waste - doing unpopular "dirty" work
- work on the fields or in mines or doing other hard, boring or dangerous manual work

In the technate (original system) you had to do 2 years of service to the system .... many democracies still have that, Roman and Athenian citizens had to serve in the army as soldiers and then through their participation/performance could be elected to become generals. That was the original system, then they fucked up and ended up either loosing or become dictatorships - the original word came from the Roman empire)
So the point is mute ... you can find people to do the dirty work.
I still think you confuse communisto-fascist utopias with the technate proposal. They are extremely different in the way they work and are organised. Once you can only spend your material assets and not store them in a bank or get more ... you have no basis to create an oligarchy.

Going back to the original capitalist systems: I'd suggest you research Cobb Douglas production functions and how the whole market/state debate is centered around a model of economy that has no physical basis and runs against physical laws. I was a free market believer till 1 yr ago when I saw that what they told me was God, was not compatible with the conservation laws of thermodynamics. Capitalism is good only when you rapidly have to build a medium scale basis and no prior organisation/infrastructure pre-exists and energy surplus (even low quality but still accessible by anyone) can be used. That situation pretty much describes a good part of the human history so far, and it is only under these circumstances that the Holy grail of free market production theory (Cobb Douglas) is a valid approximation. Once energy scarcity hits, then the system rapidly becomes irrelevant and dangerous because it assumes that its physical basis is an externality To see this within the context of PO, free market would let people die (there is no low tech substitute for our energy crisis) while others still enjoyed their jet travelling; the financial meltdown would lead to the erosion of the physical capacity to produce anything (financial de-industrialization) and pretty soon the system would collapse (there would be no more industries to supply the households in their fictional world). Aa controlled energy descent akin to the Uppsalla protocol or any other proposal that involves global governmental cooperation would make sure that the people had the basics while the scientific/engineering community went full throttle constructing the alternatives.
Please read the thread on the Verhulst model or the Lotka Volterra population/energy modeling to see what we are talking about.
Any attempt not to modify the energy crunch dynamics lead to environmental and societal (global) collapse.It is only global knowledge of the system that can mitigate the fall. And capitalism works by assuming local knowledge by the players. The reason we can forecast the Peak and the decline is because we use global knowledge i.e. data on the whole planet. Under the free market these data would not even exist , so ... do your math.
I will continue this conversation, only if you are willing to throw in some economic arguments. I already acknowledged that fasisto-communism was a bad theoretical system with a bad implementation. Free market is the same - but it separates (physically) the serfs and the masters so you do not see the 3rd world kid who workes as s slave to have your Nikes.
If you want to continue the argument about Technocracies and or steady state economies ... it has to be theoretical. None of these systems have been tried, they do not violate physical laws, and by definition they do not sacrifice future generations for a short lived pleasure. If you can appreciate the math, I could direct you to a web site with many interesting papers, where they discuss how to factor in intergenerational equality and justice in the production system.
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Unread postby JohnDenver » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 08:08:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Licho', 'O')k, so who, and why will do following in technate:
- cleaning streets and picking up and sorting waste - doing unpopular "dirty" work
- work on the fields or in mines or doing other hard, boring or dangerous manual work


These two are interesting because this problem is not solved by providing financial incentives, even in the capitalist system. The general rule seems to be: the harder and dirtier the work, the cheaper the pay. On the whole, these jobs are done by illegal immigrants for sub-minimum wage. So I don't see how the people doing these jobs are any worse off under communism. At least they can make a living under communism.
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Unread postby Licho » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 08:33:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Licho', 'O')k, so who, and why will do following in technate:
- cleaning streets and picking up and sorting waste - doing unpopular "dirty" work
- work on the fields or in mines or doing other hard, boring or dangerous manual work


These two are interesting because this problem is not solved by providing financial incentives, even in the capitalist system. The general rule seems to be: the harder and dirtier the work, the cheaper the pay. On the whole, these jobs are done by illegal immigrants for sub-minimum wage. So I don't see how the people doing these jobs are any worse off under communism. At least they can make a living under communism.


Yes, but they woudln't work in technocracy - why should they? Only by forcing them to do (as EnergySpin suggest) you can make the work done in environmnent that lacks any incentives to work.. You have to make forced labor..
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Unread postby Licho » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 08:37:01

EnergySpin - how is hoarding money different from hoarding goods or just assuming some goods will be more "expensive" in future?
You could bet on increased energy price in technocracy, buy goods at lower energy costs and then barter them when energy price of your goods grows. You would get more another goods than anyone else, you would became "richer". You could then trade your goods for some rare stuff that cannot be provided in technocracy (like the prominent spot for house, or very rare or even illegal goods)
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Unread postby JohnDenver » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 08:37:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '
')In the technate (original system) you had to do 2 years of service to the system .... many democracies still have that, Roman and Athenian citizens had to serve in the army as soldiers and then through their participation/performance could be elected to become generals.


Excellent idea, ES. Every able bodied person has to work as a grunt for 2 years. Why not? That's equal and fair. I had the same idea myself in the context of food production (Food and Shelter). It certainly makes a lot more sense to conscript people to produce food or energy, than to conscript people to kill people. It would also be beneficial because it would give everyone hands-on-experience with the material foundations of society.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')nce energy scarcity hits, then the system rapidly becomes irrelevant and dangerous because it assumes that its physical basis is an externality To see this within the context of PO, free market would let people die (there is no low tech substitute for our energy crisis) while others still enjoyed their jet travelling; the financial meltdown would lead to the erosion of the physical capacity to produce anything (financial de-industrialization) and pretty soon the system would collapse (there would be no more industries to supply the households in their fictional world).


This is the critical point that Licho (and other capitalism proponents) need to address. Capitalism cannot function without growth. It may be better than communism, but it's still deadly. Yes, capitalism may neatly solve certain problems, like who gets the beach house, but does that mean we have to cling to it while it sucks us down into the abyss?

One of the most atrocious parts of capitalism is the notion of "economic efficiency", which is defined here.

Lets develop their example with reference to petroleum:

"Suppose that we have a unit of diesel fuel which has two potential uses. In use A, it powers the yacht of a wealthy individual who is willing to pay $25; in use B, it fuels the generator of a hospital which is trying to save human lives, but has no money to pay for the fuel. The concept of economic efficiency says that the diesel fuel should be used to fuel the wealthy individual's yacht because it has the highest value. If the diesel fuel is in fact used in A, the result is economically efficient. If it ends up being used for B, the economic system is not producing as much value as it could, and the result is economically inefficient."

This notion of "efficiency" is ridiculous horseshit. Pseudo-science. It has nothing whatsoever to do with efficiency. In fact, it's simply a justification of waste by the rich, dressed up to look like a mathematical principle.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you can appreciate the math, I could direct you to a web site with many interesting papers


Post that link, please. I'm interested.
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Unread postby JohnDenver » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 08:40:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Licho', 'Y')es, but they woudln't work in technocracy - why should they? Only by forcing them to do (as EnergySpin suggest) you can make the work done in environmnent that lacks any incentives to work.. You have to make forced labor..


Right, but the labor is forced under capitalism as well, so that doesn't seem like a good argument against technocracy. People don't clean toilets due to the financial incentive. They clean toilets because otherwise they can't eat. The job is forced under all systems.
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Unread postby Licho » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 08:43:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Excellent idea, ES. Every able bodied person has to work as a grunt for 2 years. Why not? That's equal and fair. I had the same idea myself in the context of food production

And who will choose whether you end up helping in hospital or school on one hand, or working in dangerous mine or at recycling facility at other hand - there is huge room for corruption here.
Such system was active here just few years ago - you could choose to either serve in military or work as civil helpforce, it was corrupt as hell. Most people were trying to corrupt doctors, who would then give you stamp that you are unable to perform military service - you could skip both military and civil helpforce service and were free.
If they were unable to corrupt doctors, they were trying to get easy work as civil servants, getting job at school was very popular..
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Unread postby Licho » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 08:44:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'R')ight, but the labor is forced under capitalism as well, so that doesn't seem like a good argument against technocracy. People don't clean toilets due to the financial incentive. They clean toilets because otherwise they can't eat. The job is forced under all systems.


But in capitalism, this work is done by people, who are often unable to do another job (for various reasons, like lack of education and skills).
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Unread postby Licho » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 09:01:23

I still maintain that communism was very similar to technocracy, because pricing system was centrally set and regulated. It was very similar to energy credit. If there was huge demand, price didnt grow! If there was lack of demand, price didnt fall..
All companies, large or small, were state owned, there was no such thing as private enterprise. You couldn't trade or use economic system to gain more wealth.
Prices were often set centrally, or at higher levels in company burocracies, to reflect current capacities of production.

There was no such thing as inflation, recession or idle manufacturing capacities. Everything was working up to it's full potential, just like it would in technocracy.

After velvet revolution, that ended communism here, production in all sectors fell dramatically (total 30% down).
We didn't hit the levels from last communistic year 1989 yet..
Average real wages got to communistic level in 1997, but 63% were recieving less than under communism (due to higher inequality).
This probably explains, why communists still get 20% of votes and are strong party in parliament.

As a system, it provides similar benefit as technocracy, it can also work realiably when there is resource scarcity, because it's centrally planned and allocated, and there are no problems associated to ordinary market economy. But I believe, that it would suffer from similar ills as communism did.
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Unread postby JohnDenver » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 11:27:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Licho', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'R')ight, but the labor is forced under capitalism as well, so that doesn't seem like a good argument against technocracy. People don't clean toilets due to the financial incentive. They clean toilets because otherwise they can't eat. The job is forced under all systems.


But in capitalism, this work is done by people, who are often unable to do another job (for various reasons, like lack of education and skills).


Yes, but isn't that just another way to say they are forced into it? It's clear that they don't want to do it, and don't enjoy doing it, because its a job no one wants to do. So why are they doing it if they aren't being forced into it?

Just as a thought exercise, suppose you had a nation of educated people with other skills. Who's going to clean the toilets etc.? Everybody is able to do another job, and nobody wants to do the dirty work. You'd have to pay a lot of money to get someone to clean a toilet in that situation. In fact, the whole scale would be inverted, and the guy cleaning the office toilet would be getting paid more than the ad executive working in the office. Otherwise, the toilet would never get cleaned etc. I don't think capitalism would function very well under those conditions, so it seems that, at some point, capitalism must "produce" an underclass of people who have no skills/education. In fact, that is exactly what is happening in advanced economies like the U.S. The toilet cleaners are "produced" by importing them as illegal immigrants. If you sent all the illegal immigrants back home, and shut the borders, skilled people with educations would have to clean the toilets. So how would you decide who gets to be the underclass?
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Unread postby JohnDenver » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 11:51:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Licho', 'I') still maintain that communism was very similar to technocracy, because pricing system was centrally set and regulated.


Licho, the last thing I want to do is nag you out of this thread, because your first hand knowledge of communism is invaluable and I'm learning a lot. Nevertheless, you seem to be saying technocracy=communism and communism is inferior to capitalism. But that leaves us right back where we started from: the only option is capitalism, which requires growth, and therefore we have no other option except to keep growing until we kill ourselves. Can you see why I'm not satisfied with that?

I don't want to dismiss the usefulness of capitalism, or its many attractive features. However, it seems clear to me that capitalism is at the root of our energy/environmental problems, and we have to figure out some way to modify it, or control it, or moderate it, so we don't grow ourselves to death.

Isn't there some way to cut with a sharper knife, and make clearer distinctions? Why does it always have to be black/white, either/or, capitalism/communism? Can't we combine features from both? Or use one sometimes, or one at other times?

How can we stabilize our growth if there is no other option besides capitalism, because everything else is communism?
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Unread postby Tyler_JC » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 11:58:19

I find this conversation very interesting.

JD, have you ever heard of the computer game Alpha Centauri?

In the game, a group of colonists from earth settle on a new planet and break into several factions. Each faction has a different ideology and a different plan of action.

The Capitalistic faction eventually destroys itself or is captured by its neighbors. The Capitalists usually focus on wealth and allow their military/scientific sectors to fall apart.

The military and other grow factions (Communists included) run into trouble with their environment after a while and destroy themselves. The militarists often conquer the world before running into environmental problems, but this isn't really winning if you think about it.

The only factions that don't eventually destroy themselves are the Environmentalists and the Scientists. The Gaians (Enviros) build a sustainable community immediately. The cost of this is that they fall behind everyone else in growth. They just don't build up a military or a massive industrial base, it goes against their thinking. This sometimes leads to their destruction by the pro-growth militarists. The Scientists build up their technology base to the point where they can construct an Eco-topia Technocracy.

The only reason the growists ever win the game is because they use increasing amounts of land to continue their growth. This land often comes at the expensive of the environment or at the expense of the other factions.

You can win the game by blowing up everyone else and taking what you want. But the real way to win the game is by finally reaching a balance with the planet and winning either diplomatically or by accending the human form. (basically when you fill up all of the technology tree, you can start a project to become one with the planet).

To make a long story short, Technocracy works fine as long as you have world-wide argreement. Otherwise the pro-growth people will always wipe you out. The native Americans were wiped out by the European Growists. The Pro-Growth ideology is a very powerful one and I don't know if we can ever defeat it.

The Amish would lose their land if private developers wanted to build mini-malls and McMansions over their farms...thanks to our "friends" in the Supreme Court. This kind of thinking is what got us into this mess and this kind of ideology had better not survive the crash, or it's back to slavery for many of us.
"www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
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Unread postby Eli » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 12:03:28

There is no way to set up a fare and equitable system on the large scale.

The greater the privations brought on by peak Oil the more corrupt those in power will become. Regardless if the current people in power are replaced with the idealists.

If for survival people seed more power to the government to help manage their lives the more valuable the position of power becomes.

It will be just like Stalinist Russia or Nazi Germany where the best jobs were in the inner circle where those in power had complete control over privileges and punishments for that matter.

Mean while just like in capitalism the little guy gets screwed. criticize the government and it is off to the gulag or Concentration camp. Set a glass on newspaper with Big Brothers picture on it and next thing you know you are in Siberia. Have one to many kids and next thing you know your mining coal in a mine Virgina where the one the they can stand to loose is people.


Many people here are scared to death of GWB. But he does not scare me half as much as the ecozelits and pc'ers. GWB is just trying to keep the status quo together. But the ecos and pcers want to change the stinking world and they have got this crazy idea that when they get in power things will be better. There idealism and fanaticism is just asking to be used and abused by the darker angels of human nature.

The real problem is if a technocracy is set up it will have to much centralized power for human behavior to control. It will be far to appealing to those who follow the darker angels of their nature. We will get an eco Hitler or a Pc Stalin.
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Unread postby Licho » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 14:08:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')JD, have you ever heard of the computer game Alpha Centauri?

In this game, the scientists you are refering to are actually communists (at least I percieve them this way). The fact that Prokhor Zakharov is a Russian, or that they lack proper ethics and suffer from unhappy population could hint you. Hive of this mad chinnese Jang is some sort of hardline dictatorship and not communism. There are 2 dictatorships - one christian, led by sister Miriam and one communistic like- led by chairman Jang.

Communism relies on science. One of the cores of it's ideology is the materialsm. That is philosophy that encourages scientific research and goes against any system based on belief. Religous people were ridiculed and organised religion was blamed for slowing down progress and serving no usefull purpose, while attemping to influence society. Because any sort of belief system was ridiculed, science didn't have limits, nobody would protest human cloning under communism - few cells don't have brain, let's clone or kill this stuff, no problem. Thats why even things which are considered "borderline" in the west, such as telepathy were subject of serious and well funded research. No phenomena was outside scope of research.

And btw, this game is perfectly winnable with any faction, including UN peacekeeping forces of brother Lal, or economists of CEO Morgan. That's why it's a game.. it's balanced.. but different strategies are needed for those factions.
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Unread postby Licho » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 14:29:47

JohnDenver - I'm not seeing it black and white, but i see really HUGE similarities to communism as I experienced it. It had similar benefits and similar drawbacks as proposed technocracy.
Even the control structure was somewhat similar - country was controlled by the single party (this was incorporated into constitution shortly after communists won elections with overwhelming majority in 1948 and turned country into communism). This was undemocratic, citizens couldnt legally change the system. There was no other option than communism. But within the party, system worked democratically (posts were usually elected, leaders were accountable and it was possible to recall people by voting in lower layers in hiearchy). Because there was no real politics, people were responsible and in control of things, they understood - they were usually skilled experts.

Onset of communism was similar to onset of technocracy - first step was nationalization of most property and companies - such step will be neccesary in technocracy too- to get it under planning and control.
Another step was that they erased all saving and created new money - again - same step will be needed in technocracy with it's energy credits.
These steps were not popular, and during first years, communism was basically dictatorship of the party. People who were opposing could be sent to uranium mines, and about 200 people were executed for various reasons. After it stabilized, it became more free, but because there was still big opposition towards regime, press was controlled and you couldn't publicly criticize regime. If you did, you could face several punishments - most likely job transfer (cleaning toilets for being politically active against the system), or you could cause problems to whole family - for example, people who were publicly opposing regime couldnt get humanistic university education, only natural sciences were open to them - and this rule was sometimes extended to kids as well.

Many people will oppose technocracy as well, and system will be probably as democratic as "mild" communism (that is you cannot completely change system, but within system, some democracy exists). How will it cope with unrest? Will it need censorship and secret police during early phase?

Note that this kind of control is not needed if the population is content with the system. In fact, communists themselves dropped all censorship and declared "communism with human face" in 1968. But Soviet union didn't like it, so they invaded along with whole warsaw pact, and forced policy change towards hardline communism and more censorship that lasted till the end (especially with all the Russian soldiers stationed here to prevent another "counter-revolution").
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Unread postby Licho » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 14:38:01

I believe, that post PO, more central planning will be neccesary, but that doesnt mean we should scrap democracy and market system completely.

Nationalizing some companies and regulating market more should suffice. Oil price regulation and rationing would shield economy from most of the harm. Growth can continue in non-oil sectors (nothing should stop growth in IT and communications industry for example).

But you cannot control whole country and production centrally - communists thought they could. It worked - to an extent, but it was not nearly as efficient as western capitalism. Complex things had to be simplified to make central planning possible -thats why for example whole city was assigned to "coal mining and steel making" or why there were only few different models of some product.
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