[Russian_Cowboy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('big_rc', 'H')ere is a pretty good rebuttal of the TDP process that brought up a number of questions that I hadn't thought of. It's in the form of a rant by a chemist but it's a pretty fun read. Here is the answer to my turkey guts question. It looks like a bust. Sorry folks. Doesn't look like to much here to get excited about.

[0mar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SmokeStack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his is great stuff-as one facet of a sustainable distributed system. But as a panacea for a broken centralized industrial society, or even peak-oil delay, it feels to be another Titanic deck chair mambo.

1. Turkey (chicken for that matter) entrails are food. (to paraphrase Soylent Green). They become feed for other turkeys and other barnyards animals. So this gasoline feed stock is no longer available as human feed stock.

2. Turkey offal does not pump nor flow easily. Poultry production is dispersed all over this country while we now rely on centralized oil refineries. Will people drive up to the turkey farm for a fill up?

Peter

[Vexed]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he eyes of the world have been on this Missouri town for several years to see if a New York businessman can really turn turkey leftovers into oil.

The answer: A resounding yes. In fact, a revolutionary plant is turning 270 tons of poultry waste into 300 barrels of crude oil every day.

[0mar]

That's the crux of the argument. You would need something like 2,000 plants to produce a million barrels of oil, not to mention feedstocks.

[Optimist]

Hey Omar,
You have been stuck on this for a long time now. Let us try this one more time:
1. The MO plant has a stated capacity of 500 bbl/day.
2. The capacity is based on the available feedstock (200 t/d of turkey waste).
3. Using the same method, a future plant could have a much larger capacity, depending again on how much waste is available for processing.

Then again, you may not want to understand...

[0mar]

I wonder if that plant is making money! Last I checked, it was running of a DoE grant. Most successful businesses don't need government grants to run.

Even at a 1,000 barrels, double the capacity, it would take a 1,000 plants to make a million barrels of oil. A plant can't be scaled up 50x to make 25,000 barrels of oil, the capital isn't there. 1,000 barrels per day looks to be the maximum feasible limit right now.

[Optimist]

You still need to explain how you calculated the 1,000 bbl/d. If you have enough waste, there is no reason why 25,000 bbl/d would not be possible.

As for the economics: it is just a matter of crude being expensive enough. Right now, I believe it costs $80/bbl to produce oil at the MO plant. Out of that $15-20 is paid for the waste. Assuming you can get free waste (if you look hard enough, you might even find applications where you would be paid to take the waste), the remaining cost is $60-65/bbl. So right now the process does not make economic sense.

But give PO some time. As crude oil production gradually decreases, the price would go up. At some point, ($100/bbl?) TDP oil becomes a bargain and the oil companies start building plants all over the place.

So there you have it. Saved by capitalism. Again!

[0mar]

Plants are limited by physical size. I haven't seen anyone (CWT) even talk of 25,000 barrel capacity. They say they are scalable to about 1,000 bpd, straight from the horses's mouth.

[Optimist]

What are you on about? Are you implying that a reactor cannot be made bigger that a certain size? How does that work? Why would "physical size" limit TDP to 1,000 bpd, but not traditional refineries? I am affraid you make no sense.

TDP is still in development. They are still ironing out various issues. Just because nobody has spoken publicly about 25,000 bpd, does not mean it cannot be done. In fact, even when people think something is impossible, it does not mean it is impossible. See Roger Bannister and the four minute mile.

Heck, there is no reason why they can't do 250,000 bpd!

[big_rc]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Optimist', 'W')hat are you on about? Are you implying that a reactor cannot be made bigger that a certain size? How does that work? Why would "physical size" limit TDP to 1,000 bpd, but not traditional refineries? I am affraid you make no sense.

TDP is still in development. They are still ironing out various issues. Just because nobody has spoken publicly about 25,000 bpd, does not mean it cannot be done. In fact, even when people think something is impossible, it does not mean it is impossible. See Roger Bannister and the four minute mile.

Heck, there is no reason why they can't do 250,000 bpd!

[Optimist]

Well, excuse me for being "difficult", but we are living in a world where waste disposal is becoming a huge a problem (in case you have not noticed). The "astronomical amount of waste/feedstock" is just a by-product of modern life, much like the "paperless office" is producing mountains of waste paper. Whatever the problems with CWT's technology, getting enough feedstock is not one of them.

And, talking to Omar, do you have a reference for this statement?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey say they are scalable to about 1,000 bpd, straight from the horses's mouth.

[0mar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Optimist', 'S')orry to burst your pessimistic bubble, but TDP is the perfect answer to PO. The higher the price of crude, the better for TDP!

[Optimist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n a peak oil world the basic concentrated industrial-agriculture model fails. Food will be localized. It costs LOTS of energy to grow and ship feed corn, to incubate baby turkeys, to house and move turkeys to a processor, to process turkeys.

[ubercrap]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Optimist', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n a peak oil world the basic concentrated industrial-agriculture model fails. Food will be localized. It costs LOTS of energy to grow and ship feed corn, to incubate baby turkeys, to house and move turkeys to a processor, to process turkeys.

[Optimist]

I have no idea what energy prices will do in the future, there are simply too many factors affecting it. What I am arguing against is the melt-down scenario that most on this board seem convinced is unavoidable and some even appear to be looking forward to.

Some thoughts:
Do we need cheap energy? Moderately expensive energy may not be such a bad thing - it would encourage everybody to use energy wisely and to save it where possible. It would also encourage research into alternative energy and energy saving, unlike what we have seen in the last decade or two.

Would alternatives remain expensive? Again, who knows what prices will do. But as alternatives get market share and start competing against each other, it is hard not to believe that continuous improvement will bring prices down over time.

As for the third world, they may discover that high energy prices make it too expensive to fight wars and oppress people. How tragic would that be?

[pea-jay]

Peak Oil may be getting more mainstream media attention, but that may be a mixed blessing. At worst, it will lull folks into a false sense of security. Case in point, this article (which doesn't mention peak oil or even limitations) that discusses the future of energy.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') discovered something amazing recently and I tried to tell a bunch of friends about it. A guy in Illinois has, it seems, invented a device that can turn almost anything into oil, plus a few byproducts (all useful).

...

Inventor Paul Buskis is not planning to process people, of course. He's going after trash. His thermo-depolymerization process works on any carbon-based substance--chicken entrails, tires, plastic milk jugs, you name it. Garbage in, oil out--that's the promise.

My friends scoffed. "Sounds too good to be true," was their consensus. "It'll never work."

Ah, but it's already working. A company called Changing World Technologies has built a plant in Carthage, Missouri, based on Buskis's process. It's producing 400 barrels of oil a day right now, extruded from the wastes of nearby turkey processing plants. The company is building another plant in Philadelphia to process sewage into black gold.

My friends would have none of this. They assured me the invention will emit toxic pollution. (It doesn't.) It will use more energy than it produces. (Quite the opposite.) It's voodoo science: "How can oil be created?"

Well, it's been done before. The earth created oil by heating, cooling, and squeezing the rotted remains of plants and animals. Buskis replicates that process mechanically. What took millions of years in nature, his process achieves in a day.

[MicroHydro]

People are going to bite on every energy scam that comes down the pike, just like in the 1970s. PT Barnum was right.

One just has to take human nature into account. I don't believe in the hydrogen economy or fuel cells, but I know that the techno-optimists will give them a try. So I invested in a platinum mining company.

[Choon]

I was really pleased when one of Malaysia's more popular bloggers wrote about Peak Oil.

http://www.jeffooi.com/archives/2005/07/peak_oil.php

Wasn't so happy when the comments came streaming in. That last commenter shrugged off PO based on...

http://www.the7thfire.com/peak_oil/peak ... lation.htm
http://www.vialls.com/wecontrolamerica/peakoil.html

I can understand it if people don't believe about PO because "the market will provide", but for those that read a website that starts with "The Seventh Fire is a means to Soar beyond mind. Enter through the Heart"???

I think I've just seen a new low on how desperate people want to hear good news, no matter who says it.

[aahala]

The Carthage, Missouri turkey plant was discussed in a thread here the
last few weeks.

It's the "mother of foul odors." After many complaints, the state finally
was able to get the plant to agree to reducing the smell; I haven't heard
if things have improved.