[seahorse3]

In 2005, Sadad Al Husseini, former head of Aramco exploration, predicted world peak oil in 2015 at 90-95mbpd which would then plateau through 2020. Here's a link to the old article.

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2005-10-03/sadad-al-husseini-sees-peak-2015

World daily production in 2015 was 94mbpd.

http://www.iea.org/aboutus/faqs/oil/

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'Y')ou can't trust him. He just hates our American way of life.

[Pops]

Horse!
Long time no tap... how are things?

Looks like a pretty good guess. Gotta wonder what he thinks now, pretty sure he didn't expect all the money to be thrown at fracking, or maybe he did.

Campbell and Laherrere guessed sometime before 2010 for conventional (in the '98 SciAm article, my intro to PO, read on an airliner)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')sing several different techniques to estimate the current reserves of conventional oil and the amount still left to be discovered, we conclude that the decline will begin before 2010.

[GoghGoner]

I always liked that ex-KSA employee. I don't think he was any more accurate than anybody else, though.

Refinery capacity did not hold back supply.



The second part that he had wrong:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')herefore my answer is: under the current circumstances and outlook, oil is likely to peak at a 95 mmbd plateau by 2015 and can then be sustained well beyond 2020 at increasing real oil prices.

[Revi]

That is an awesome graph. We created the big increase on the top of the cake, but with lower prices, it's bound to start going down soon. I have been telling a few people who I talked to about Peak Oil back before 2010, and they are not too happy to talk about the fact that we are actually hitting the peak now. Neither am I, but I speak to almost nobody about it, since it's not a subject that most people are interested in. Here are some of Ron Patterson's recent posts on Peak Oil Barrel, and he predicted a peak right around now, and it seems to be happening...

http://peakoilbarrel.com

[GHung]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')img]http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/saudi-arabia-current-account.png?s=4567988&v=201508112159h&d1=20050101&d2=20151231[/img]

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/i ... y+Thursday

During the last 15 years, for example, the Saudi central bank balance sheet rose from $150 billion to more than $800 billion because its policy was to keep its exchange rate flat as a board at 3.75 riyal to the dollar. So doing, it created a bid for US treasuries, securitized commercial mortgage paper, ETFs and IBM stock that was dependent upon perpetuation of the global boom and the maintenance of $100 oil prices......

......Needless to say, the great global deflation has already eliminated the giant petro state current account surpluses, and their capacity to peg their currencies and hoard global financial assets. For example, from a peak run rate of $350 billion annually, the Saudi surplus has already plunged into negative territory, where it is likely to stay for years to come as world oil demand falters and the momentum of previous (sunk) supply enhancing investments carries forward.

This means that the petro states will be liquidating their capital hoard to cover current account deficits. The big fat central bank Bid will become a relentless Offer in London, New York and financial markets everywhere. To paraphrase Warren Buffett, when the tide comes in Wall Street will prove to have been both naked and coupled to the rest of the world.....

....If the Fed chooses to stay the ZIRP course yet another month it will be unmistakably evident as to why. It has unleashed the gamblers and furies of greed in the casino and is terrified by the prospect of reining them in.

Doing so will reveal that the Keynesian central banking project of the last two decades has been a failure and a fraud. It may even bring pitchforks and torches to the nation’s capital in search of the small posse of cowards and zealots who are setting the stage for still another thundering financial crash.

[Paulo1]

Revi nailed it.

I quit talking about it as well. Those that know anything about resource limits are already preparing, at least mentally. Those that cannot accept that anything about BAU might change and they might have to modify their expectations, well....they just don't want to hear about it nor would they believe anything one might say about PO.

On a brighter note, it does seem like regular folks are now accepting Climate Change into their worldview. The Republican goofs on the debate last night even talked about it, not that they will make any changes if it affects BAU, but they are still talking about it and not simply dismissing it out of hand.

[GHung]

Paulo: "On a brighter note, it does seem like regular folks are now accepting Climate Change into their worldview."

Yeah, A local Episcopal green initiative leader is trying to recruit me to come to their prayer/action meetings after I wrote an op/ed to the paper here countering those who think solar farms should be banned/curtailed because they "spoil the view". A recent email I received:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')HAT GREEN FAITH CAN DO

1. MEET TOGETHER AND SHARE IDEAS AND PROJECTS CONCERNING PROPER CARE OF OUR EARTH
2..HELP TO EDUCATE OUR CHURCH ABOUT THE PROPER CARE OF THE EARTH-INCLUDING PRESENTING PROGRAMS ON IMPORTANT TOPICS- CLIMATE CHANGE, THE POPE'S ENCYCLICAL ON THE ENVIRONMENT, RECYCLING, ETC.
3. WORK ON PROJECTS TOGETHER-CLEAN UP CAMPAIGNS, GETTING SIGNATURES FROM MEMEBERS OF OUR CHURCH ABOUT LEGISLATIVE ACTION ON IMPORTANT ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES, RECYCLING, ENERGY CONSERVATION
4. ACTING ON IMPORTANT LEGISLATIVE ISSUES VIA ACTION ALERTS
5. PROVIDING IMPORTANT WEBSITES ABOUT ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES SO THAT WE CAN KNOW WHAT TO ACT ON
6. SHOWING FILMS ABOUT PROPER CARE OF EARTH-PERHAPS WITH A SUPPER
7. WRITING LETTERS TO EDITOR, OP-EDS-ABOUT IMPORTANTY ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
8. WRITING OUR CONGRESSMEN ON IMPORTANT ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES- HANDWRITTEN LETTERS BY FAR THE BEST
9. SUPPORTING EACH OTHER-WE ARE NOT ALONE
10. EMPHASIZING OVER AND OVER AGAIN THAT WE CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE-I ALWAYS SAID SOMEONE SHOULD DO SOMETHING ABOUT THIS MESS, AND THEN I REALIZED THAT I AM SOMEONE!
11. COMING UP WITH IDEAS TO HELP OUR COMMUNITY-ENERGY SAVINGS PROGRAMS, RECYCLING, ETC--EVEN MEETING WITH OUR LOCAL OFFICIALS OVER THIS--THIS IS PRESENTLY BEING DONE IN TOWNS COUNTY
12. MEETING TOGETHER TO SUPPORT NATIONAL EFFORTS BY GREEN FAITH AND OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS
13. LOOKING TOGETHER AT WHAT OTHER ENVIROMENTAL GROUPS ARE DOING AND SEE IF WE WANT TO GET MORE INVOLVED WITH THEM-SUCH AS LOBBYING THRU CITIZENS CLIMATE LOBBY, WORKING WITH ENERGY SAVINGS VOLUNTEERS, ETC
14. MANY OTHER IDEAS THAT YOU CAN ALL COME UP WITH

[Revi]

It's good to have others who can hear what you have to say, but it's even more important to have others at all, so I think your church group is a great idea!

[Revi]

We shoulda listened to Hirsch when his report first came out in 2005. We might have had a chance, but for some reason it was forgotten... I'm talking about our society, not us peak oilers.

[StarvingLion]

Patterson predicted the peak on the oil drum many years ago along with the other pathetic hucksters like Gail "Its collapsing...its collapsing" Tverberg. He doesn't have a clue whats going on other than he is filled with guilt over wrecking the planet...hahahaha...what a bleeping dummy.

The rest of the cretins on his site aren't much brighter.

[Revi]

I find his site to be a place to see what's going on in the world. It's very similar to The Oil Drum. I really can't see what is the matter with it. He even reported that because of the deepwater Gulf of Mexico we actually went up a little in August. I think we are still down some since we started downwards in the US in April. We may have hit peak oil. 6 months from now we'll know for sure...