[onlooker]

haha, okay Pete. Is not one of the biggest clues how aggressive US as gone for fracking and shale. Why would they if the cheap oil was still plentiful. Another clue of course is why did it actually go all the way up to $147 cannot be just speculation. Finally on this site and on the TOD site I did become aware of a book written by the late Matthew Simmons "Twilight in the Desert" in which he seems to have methodically explored the situation in SA and how he was convinced according to his analysis that SA had reached peak. So if SA reached Peak so has the entire world. By the way around that time 2005 or so, a number of credible persons also were saying that we almost certainly had reached peak of light sweet crude. Now correct me if I am wrong about any of these details.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'h')aha, okay Pete. Is not one of the biggest clues how aggressive US as gone for fracking and shale. Why would they if the cheap oil was still plentiful. Another clue of course is why did it actually go all the way up to $147 cannot be just speculation. Finally on this site and on the TOD site I did become aware of a book written by the late Matthew Simmons "Twilight in the Desert" in which he seems to have methodically explored the situation in SA and how he was convinced according to his analysis that SA had reached peak. So if SA reached Peak so has the entire world. By the way around that time 2005 or so, a number of credible persons also were saying that we almost certainly had reached peak of light sweet crude. Now correct me if I am wrong about any of these details.

[Ibon]

Shifts are coming, how seismic is an open question. Already 10 years ago on this site we had this argument. One side believing that oil demand is not elastic and used for so many essentials and that it's peak and decline represents THE limiting factor in our civilization as we know it persisting. I often took the other argument saying that oil consumption was like a secondary sex characteristic, a pea cocks tail but 10 miles long. All those reasons beside the essentials like hummers and McMansions and all those other wealth symbols take up the bulk of energy demand. Or all those ways we have become indolent wasting it. As we previously discussed, nobody argues that a washing machine increases happiness. But a dishwasher? This is just an example that you can then apply all the way up the consumption ladder.

Cut a 10 mile pea cocks tail in half and he still has a 5 mile tail. That is about the extent of the shift I see coming our way in the next 20-40 years. If we want to see this human juggernaut decline beforehand it will have to be something other than peak oil or energy. Geopolitical issues perhaps, climate change maybe. Economic collapse perhaps, Pandemics maybe. Peak OIl? Not a chance.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') no longer believe that Ibon. The waste in most places in the world is baked into an auto-dependent infrastructure and is the sole means of employment for billions. Lots of humans and economies can not escape that, sadly among those places are resource well like the ME.

Ironically here in the US we might have the best chance even though we are the most wasteful. Because unlike most places in the world we still somewhat under-populated and very resource rich especially in agriculture and transport, but also in recyclable infrastructure. Plus we are isolated from the truly tragic places in the world.

[onlooker]

Great informative comments guys. I think the critical component of peak oil is it's relation to food production. The only hope I see to somewhat continue BAU for the time being is for US to truly begin downsizing and be much more discriminate about the use of oil. This is consistent with the impressions of both you Ibon and Pete relative to the US. Now the US then can if it chooses continue to try and export food to the most needy of places. The question of jobs is a tricky one because it would presuppose a return to the land for most people around the world. I am not sure how feasible traditional agriculture is considering the degraded land areas and also one has to wonder how or if the main ingredients of Haber-Bosh process can be replaced with natural fertilizers and whether plants can fend off predators without synthetic pesticides. Oh and phosphorous availability looms as a limiting factor for food. Of course all this appears a moot point in time frames longer then perhaps 10 years or so as fresh water availability, pandemics, GW , war and perhaps other factors seem poised to reduce pretty drastically populations.

[onlooker]

Well Ibon and others I believe most here on PO do foresee a pretty big die-off to occur within let us say the next 15-50 years. Too many forces conspiring to reduce population that is the simple bottom line. I think where we all slightly differ and I cite your happy medium Ibon is exactly at what point will humanity soft land from a crash die-off. This is extremely difficult to pinpoint or in other words at what population level and with what civilization accessories or capabilities those humans will be left with.

[SeaGypsy]

I think you miss Ibon mostly OL. He is not predicting BAU, he is directly relating immediate urgencies to capacity, most of which currently goes to non essentials- suggesting the taper down to the small percentage of oil required to do the real essentials only is going to be multi-decadal, so far off as to not warrant being of any immediate concern. Morocco has about 400 years worth of phosphate at current rates, there is no immediate concern there. Water is an issue, but look at Perth solar desalination plant & again at waste & you get a similar equation- decades out to immediate life threatening problem globally, if ever.

Crop failure would have to rate top of the list for a major regional dieoff any time soon. Another has to be the fencing off of areas deemed written off- as we see happening increasingly now, but would either affect the overall trajectory- likely not.

[onlooker]

Also, I am not convinced desalination plants are the answer world-wide to water shortages in so much as the energy requirements are quite large. So at best a small group of rich countries would be the beneficiaries. Of course, the large percentage of the world's population resides in poor countries unless you wish to exclude China. As always, several factors involved that direct themselves to how large scale or extensively can this technology be deployed.

[ralfy]

Modern nation-states are dependent on mechanized military and police forces, which in turn requires significant amounts of oil and other resources. Given the lack of globalization, then these states will deteriorate significantly, and likely turn the global population itself into a large mass not only of economic refugees but people moving away from all sorts of crises, including those that involve climate.

[SeaGypsy]

There are millions drinking mud & sewage coz that's all they have got. Anyway you want to go with rapid doom scenarios go for it. The reality will be much more patchy & diverse.

[onlooker]

Yes but China more then anyone is ruining their own nest via pollution you wonder what the natural threshold limits are for them if they continue polluting so much.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'Y')es but China more then anyone is ruining their own nest via pollution you wonder what the natural threshold limits are for them if they continue polluting so much.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') guess you could say China is doing okay.

compared to some.

[onlooker]

True story Ibon and others. My wife has told me the story that her sister who is now deceased use to have a dream. In that dream, she envisioned many many Chinese swarming looking like devils, my goodness that fits in well with what are the realities of Chinese ascendancy.

[onlooker]

Very good point by Dolan. Many countries and regions have and are learning to live with little oil. The only problem with this line of analysis is that in terms of food to provide for all, oil is still fundamental and food must be shipped to many areas from the few exporting countries. So can these different localities survive without food being bought in and can overall world continue roughly at the same output?