Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

US oil output set for sharp decline

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby Synapsid » Sun 13 Sep 2015, 14:42:42

Hi loveoregon.

It's good to see you here. Check out PeakOilBarrel.com too (Ron Patterson's site.)
Synapsid
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 780
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 21:21:50

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby ennui2 » Mon 14 Sep 2015, 09:00:35

The economy is capable of going through shifts. After all, it's already shifted largely to an information-based economy. The actual need to "commute" is largely a leftover artefact of the 20th century.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3920
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 10:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby ROCKMAN » Mon 14 Sep 2015, 09:15:07

Left over artefact? Obviously you don't deal with rush hour traffic. LOL. Lets take a poll: how many here DON'T drive to work?
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby dolanbaker » Mon 14 Sep 2015, 09:31:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'L')eft over artefact? Obviously you don't deal with rush hour traffic. LOL. Lets take a poll: how many here DON'T drive to work?

Well, I drive to the railway station and then let the train take the strain. There is a trend amongst IT companies now to discourage home working and get all their engineers into one office, despite the fact that they are all capable of remote working.

The claim is that they are more creative when lumped together, I reckon that it has a lot to do with getting them to spend money on services related to working.
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Hungrymoggy "I am now predicting that Europe will NUKE ITSELF sometime in the first week of January"
User avatar
dolanbaker
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3855
Joined: Wed 14 Apr 2010, 10:38:47
Location: Éire

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby Pops » Mon 14 Sep 2015, 09:39:30

me,

a dozen years full time on every kind of connection you can imagine.

The real world isn't quite an artifact yet tho

Image


Unfortunately, my gut tells me that the "information" economy is just the icing on the peak of the real, resource based economy.
The foam on the surplus energy laté as it were
The grunt at the end of the copious copulation
The finale of the energy slave operetta
...
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby Revi » Thu 17 Sep 2015, 11:04:07

According to Ron Patterson the decline has already begun:
http://peakoilbarrel.com
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby Revi » Thu 17 Sep 2015, 13:30:49

That's how I feel. I forgot about peak oil, like the rest of the country for a while, but now it's back in my psyche. Scary!
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby ennui2 » Fri 18 Sep 2015, 00:10:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'L')eft over artefact? Obviously you don't deal with rush hour traffic. LOL. Lets take a poll: how many here DON'T drive to work?


I do deal with rush-hour traffic. It's a left-over artefact meaning it's an outdated tradition we're still following, but don't really need to. I do not really need to drive myself to an office to bang away at a keyboard all day. I've got a corporate laptop and VPN and can work anywhere. I have telecommuted for short periods for my current job but it's tradition that demands I go to the office each day.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3920
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 10:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby dolanbaker » Fri 18 Sep 2015, 01:38:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'L')eft over artefact? Obviously you don't deal with rush hour traffic. LOL. Lets take a poll: how many here DON'T drive to work?

I have telecommuted for short periods for my current job but it's tradition that demands I go to the office each day.

Tradition, yes the boss has to see you in the office to "prove that you're an employee" also I believe it is so that your income is spent on keeping up the secondary service economy, things like coffee shops/café’s next to your place of work.
Too many telecommuters is bad for the GDP figures, plus some CEO's now believe that getting all their technical people in the same office will improve creativity.

90% of my job could also be done from home, but no chance of being allowed to do so.
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Hungrymoggy "I am now predicting that Europe will NUKE ITSELF sometime in the first week of January"
User avatar
dolanbaker
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3855
Joined: Wed 14 Apr 2010, 10:38:47
Location: Éire

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby ROCKMAN » Fri 18 Sep 2015, 06:33:41

dohboi - Not sure how it is in other industries but in the oil patch we quickly learned the FO factor of telecommuting was not acceptable. Yes...FO factor is the F*ck Off factor. It's already high enough when we're in the office checking the stock market or our latest fantasy football scores. LOL
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby ennui2 » Fri 18 Sep 2015, 06:58:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '
')90% of my job could also be done from home, but no chance of being allowed to do so.


I predict attitudes will eventually change along the way, and long before people are resorting to donkey carts or even carpooling. The savings in BTUs is just too great to ignore, other than having to heat-cool individual homes vs. offices, which takes some of that savings away.

There's a lack of perspective of doomers to transitional steps along the decline, but I think this will be a pretty big one. The economy isn't going to implode once people can't affordably commute if most of what they do is bang on keyboards or talk to people over the phone/skype. If that means that a lot of lunch restaurants go out of business, so be it.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 3920
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 10:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld
Top

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby Subjectivist » Fri 18 Sep 2015, 11:30:06

Have you seen this?

Image
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
Subjectivist
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 4705
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 07:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby Pops » Fri 18 Sep 2015, 11:38:29

Sub all that chart shows is a) the eia consistently underestimated shale output and b) that shale is unprofitable at this price and so being dialed back.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby Subjectivist » Fri 18 Sep 2015, 12:51:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')ub all that chart shows is a) the eia consistently underestimated shale output and b) that shale is unprofitable at this price and so being dialed back.


Wouldn't that mean the EIA might be right in the slightly longer run as production falls and meets their earlier projections? I and in my experience many other folks take to short of a time horizon on predictions. My writing group constantly emphasizes, vague is your friend when making predictions and precision almost always means you will be proven wrong.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
Subjectivist
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 4705
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 07:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio
Top

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby Pops » Fri 18 Sep 2015, 13:06:12

Their last prediction is "AEO 2015 tight" in the legend, the little thin green line that shows slowing but continuing increase in output from now til 2020, then a slow decrease.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby Subjectivist » Fri 18 Sep 2015, 13:13:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')heir last prediction is "AEO 2015 tight" in the legend, the little thin green line that shows slowing but continuing increase in output from now til 2020, then a slow decrease.


Yes I see that, but if you are right about the resources and infrastructure already in the fields going back into production won't the dip now even out to follow that trend line say in late 2016?
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
Subjectivist
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 4705
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 07:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio
Top

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby Pops » Fri 18 Sep 2015, 13:23:45

I think that's right. If we are in a supply-led surplus situation, when the surplus clears, the price will rise and production resume, regardless of whether the same guys are doing the producing or someone else.

That is, if there is profitable oil there at whatever price consumers can pay.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby tita » Mon 21 Sep 2015, 03:46:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')hat is, if there is profitable oil there at whatever price consumers can pay.


Easy to say. But not so easy to figure out how this takes place in the timeline. The moves from either production or demand are slow. That means that the elasticity of the offer/demand curve is very low on the short term. On the demand side, we can't replace the equipment using oil overnight. Usually, they are used 10-25 years. It's the same for the production side. Once the investment is made, a well is going to produce all the oil it can, until the operating costs are higher than the income. Even if it is not profitable overall (investors may lose money) this won't stop it producing. Add to that the health of the global economy, which affects and is affected by the demand/production numbers, and you end up with something impossible to predict.

This is what we lived in the last 15 years. Now, there is this new variable from LTO, which is reducing the pace of change. It rised production in just 5 years... And could be reduced by the same time.
User avatar
tita
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 418
Joined: Fri 10 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: US oil output set for sharp decline

Postby PeakOiler » Mon 21 Sep 2015, 08:30:40

Just saw this article at Reuters:
Oil Prices Up 2% as US Drilling Falls

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il rose by more than 2 percent on Monday after data showed U.S. drilling slowed and a report said $1.5 trillion worth of planned production was uneconomic at current prices.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')nvestment bank Goldman Sachs said in a report that rig data pointed to a decline in U.S. oil production between the second and fourth quarters of this year of more than 250,000 barrels per day (bpd).


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;$1.5 trillion of uncommitted spend on new conventional projects and North American unconventional oil is uneconomic at $50 a barrel," Woodmac added.

Despite such a cut to U.S. spending plans, analysts said prices were expected to remain at low levels for some time as other producers, especially in the Middle East and Russia, kept pumping near record levels.

"Oil producers continue to battle for market share ... widening the global oil surplus," ANZ said on Monday.

The bank said it expected U.S. crude to fall below $40 a barrel over the next six months and to average just $41 next year. It expects Brent to average $46 per barrel in 2016.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
User avatar
PeakOiler
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3664
Joined: Thu 18 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Central Texas
Top

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron