[onlooker]

I am interested in exploring with all you fine folks, the theory/concept which some are beginning to note and that is that the end game overarching strategy of the main players on the world stage is to be "The last man standing". That would mean that they all are aware of the tremendous forces at play now to really radically downgrade our civilization and create turmoil. So knowing this all the main countries are bracing for the inevitable calamities headed our way with the mindset of being the one left standing or still functioning (alive haha). In this light we can view all the geo-political events happening now in particular in the Middle East. It just seems clear to me that powers that be are beginning to prepare in all senses of the word. By the way War is a way to prepare and assure you are in fact the last man standing. Buying up of Africa is one example. Finally, I personally believe all this will be futile as we are now on such a trajectory on the planet that events will scarcely be able to be controlled and greater calamities await that no country can prepare for.

[fleance]

Looking at all the calamities and war that happened around the world. It seems getting worse as year added and the survival percentage is getting harder.

[Tanada]

I marathoned Years Of Living Dangerously yesterday and one fact really stuck out. I already knew that Bangladesh is densely populated, but the example used to explain it is stark. Bangladesh has the area of the state of Iowa, but the population of every state west of the Mississippi River all packed into that small area.

Pakistan is almost as densely populated, India, China and Indonesia as well. One seriously bad grain harvest on the world scale and famine becomes a reality, not just a fear. 2010 there were poor grain harvests in three major exporting countries including the USA and Russia. Russia stopped exporting grain and the USA exported less than usual because of the very widespread drought in our grain growing region. This lead to extremely high food prices in Mexico, North Africa and the Middle East which is one of the causes of the 'Arab Spring' revolts everywhere from the Arabian Peninsula, and Syria east to Algeria along the Mediterranean coast.

Well bad news folks, the population in 2015 is higher than it was in 2010 in all those countries including the USA and Russia. People don't think about it much but the Export Land Model applies to food as well as oil. More people in the USA/Russia means less extra grain for export, and with the wacky weather we have had in the Midwest USA I would not count on a bumper crop this year. South America, particularly Argentina, used to be a pretty serious grain export region, but they have had a severe drought for a couple years now. Heat waves in Europe, the Middle East and Pakistan-India-Bangladesh will reduce grain yield per acre even if it did not kill the crops outright.

We are dancing on the edge of the cliff juggling Faberge' Eggs and we can't even look down to see how close to the edge we are.

[SeaGypsy]

That's what I keep hearing from friends working for NGO food & health programs in Asia, that eventually famine is utterly inevitable due to crop failure & drought.
The craziest thing about these population explosion zones is how relatively better living standards have masked the dire consequences of overpopulation. Families who 40 years ago were on 1 dollar a day, went to ten, went to 25, while pumping out 4-7 babies per woman average.

[Lore]

I'm not aware of any nation prepping or strategizing for anything? I believe individual military's are running scenarios, but for the most part it's all going to be a frantic uncoordinated response to any given situation.

Nations that are able to briefly cope will have barbarians at the gate.

[SeaGypsy]

Except for in this case the barbarians are already bragging about smuggling thousands behind enemy lines among refugees. Meltdown has begun in Europe. There will be waves of new terror attacks & widening divide.

[Ibon]

Disease and famine up until now has been successfully overcome. Think of the recent Aids or Ebola epidemics. Now all seemingly under control. Go back to the early 60's and see the images of malnutrition throughout Africa, Asia and Latin America with young emaciated children. All now seemingly under control.

We have not lost a single battle against the Overshoot Predator as we move ever closer to losing the war of defeating human overshoot.

I don't focus on this topic any longer because the world wont focus on this until they decisively lose the first battle. Perhaps as Tanada says with a world wide grain failure due to climate disruption. In the meantime it remains idle speculation and does nothing to move consciousness forward.

[Lore]

By all means, let's pretend our security is not threatened. My case in point, no one is preparing.

It's the old, better to not think about things we don't like to think about.

[GHung]

Ibon said: "We have not lost a single battle against the Overshoot Predator as we move ever closer to losing the war of defeating human overshoot."

Not sure who "we" is, or that I would express it in terms of "win and lose", and how you would define those things, but they are certainly human concepts as "overshoot" is a condition relative to nature and a species' condition relative to the carrying capacity of the space it occupies. Most areas/countries certainly aren't "winning" that battle (virtually none), since I can think of no social entity that is winning (improving its condition relative to carrying capacity). Indeed, if some climate scientists are right, we, collectively, have already lost; dead men walking so to speak. Being the "last dead man standing" isn't much of a victory in my book.

Reminds me of a WWI battle I read about where the western allies defeated an entrenched German force. As they celebrated their victory, the wind changed and blew the cloud of mustard gas they had fired at the Germans over their party. Not much of a victory dance, eh?

Anyway, at what point can any of us declare 'victory', and what would the point be? Losing isn't some point in time; it's a process which is accelerating. How we spin it doesn't matter much.

[Hawkcreek]

Saw a pair of cougars on my place recently. The elk are coming back, also. And the damn black bear spread a bag of my trash all over, for the second time. Started to use bungee cords to hold the lids on. My dog seems to have finally realized that he just can not win a fight with a porcupine, so my needle nosed pliers are getting a rest.
I know the world is falling apart, and human critters will be dying everywhere.
But I am starting to worry more about my wild friends than I do the two-legged destroyers.

[Hosj]

Western Industrialized countries with plenty of land and a hint of organization may be able to minimize their damages as the world is forcibly transitioned back to subsistence agriculture. Big cities will have to be abandoned but there will probably be enough food to go around at least for awhile in the US, although tough choices will have to be made, such as cutting back seriously on meat production to produce more grain. Poor countries that are immensely overpopulated and already on the brink may suffer catastrophic famines that the west will be powerless to stop.

One of the assumptions here is that people in the west will fare the worst because they have the furthest to fall, but outside of some rural area with great soil, living in an American suburb isn't the worst place to be.

[GregT]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'F')inally, I personally believe all this will be futile as we are now on such a trajectory on the planet that events will scarcely be able to be controlled and greater calamities await that no country can prepare for.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', 'I')bon said: "We have not lost a single battle against the Overshoot Predator as we move ever closer to losing the war of defeating human overshoot."

Not sure who "we" is, or that I would express it in terms of "win and lose", and how you would define those things, but they are certainly human concepts as "overshoot" is a condition relative to nature and a species' condition relative to the carrying capacity of the space it occupies.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'B')y all means, let's pretend our security is not threatened. My case in point, no one is preparing. It's the old, better to not think about things we don't like to think about.

[Hosj]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'B')y all means, let's pretend our security is not threatened. My case in point, no one is preparing. It's the old, better to not think about things we don't like to think about.

[Paulo1]

Tanada nailed it with her comment.

@Ibon, Do you not think that what is happening with the migrant flood into Europe is the beginning stages? Everyone mentions Syrian refugees, however, the migrants still flow from North Africa across the Med. One bad harvest and every border is vulnerable.

I have no answer, but to those in Canada and US who say, "yes to refugees but no to economic migrants" I would like to remind them that all of us here, including First Nations (Natives), are decendents of economic migrants or those displaced by others through war.

[Newfie]

Age works a bit into what are reasonable preps.

65 this year, I'm not about to start becoming a dirt farmer.

Our kids are all grown and have ideas of their own. Damn if I know where they got em cause they aren't mine. Well, maybe mine when I was their age.

My preps are to retire and enjoy our life living on the boat between warm places and Newfoundland. If TSHTF then we have tremendous flexibility to move here or there, where ever is best, if they will have us.

We will be leaving some good resources to the kids, they just gotta figure out how to use them.

One year, living with my ex, I had moved to the back porch (yeah, it was that good!). I watched a robin build a nest nurture 5 young, working here ass off. One evening, all 5 fledglings were sitting on a branch screening to be fed. She stopped her frenzied food quest, looked around for a couple of minutes, then went over and TOTALLY DESTROYED the nest she had so lovingly built, then flew away.

The young'ums sat there in shock. After a while one flew off, then another. In maybe 20 minutes they were all gone. And I was the last one there, alone.

Not sure if this was at all relevant but I was thinking of it and thought I'd share.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hosj', '
')Of course one person can't prevent collapse, but there are still loads of things that you can do to better your chances. If the future looks like the great depression or something similar and not TEOTWAWKI, you will seriously have regretted sitting around and doing nothing when you could have done things that would have bettered yourself.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Paulo1', '
')@Ibon, Do you not think that what is happening with the migrant flood into Europe is the beginning stages? Everyone mentions Syrian refugees, however, the migrants still flow from North Africa across the Med. One bad harvest and every border is vulnerable.

I have no answer, but to those in Canada and US who say, "yes to refugees but no to economic migrants" I would like to remind them that all of us here, including First Nations (Natives), are decendents of economic migrants or those displaced by others through war.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', 'B')y all means, let's pretend our security is not threatened. My case in point, no one is preparing. It's the old, better to not think about things we don't like to think about.