by Tanada » Tue 03 May 2005, 07:44:13
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tdrive', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Its my time I will waste it in any manner I please. Everyone needs at least a hobby and PO is just one of my many.
OK, apologies. Here is a free advise then, the data does not make
much sence as the price was driven by the OPEC
which distorted the production/price relation. Also, during 70's the
prices were seriosly distorted by the oil embargo and Yum Kippur war.
Also, for what you need, in order to get the relation, you still need
field by field data, which those free sources do not have. The production
by state after 1970 is meaningless anyway since all states pumped flat out
regardless of the price due to depletion, you cannot det any correlation,
because there isn't any, and on top of that there is the added complexity
of enhanced recovery and changes in technology.
I am just trying to save you time. If you need learning experience,
go to college.
Am I a killjoy?
Cheers,
Apology accepted with thanks. Been to college 20 years ago, still the same stubborn me because I refused to buy into all the PC crud.
I think we are talking at cross purposes here, you are talking about OPEC being in the driver seat of price as if that is all that matters, but it is only one factor in my opinion.
When a state is pumping flat out because of high price that is one thing, however when the price crashes it takes the economic incentive away from the small scale producers.
When the price of a barrel of crude falls to $15.00 and you have a stripper well producing 5/bbl/d it will probably be more economically effective for your company to seal that well and scrap out the tanks, pumping structure and support equipment that produce from that well.
On the other hand if the price is $45.00/bbl you have three times the economic incentive to keep that well pumping. At different times over the last 25 years or so I have read blurbs in different places about stripper well price supports, to prevent low production wells from being sealed. These would have taken the form of a floor for stripper wells only so that the price of the oil they pumped was never low enough to encourage their being sealed. I once read that simply by setting a floor of $25.00 which was about the OPEC floor, you would have prevented the closure of thousands of low production rate stripper wells in the 1995-2003 time frame.
I am looking for stripper well production figures by state to test this hypothesis, mostly for my own self entertainment.