[ROCKMAN]

"America pisses me right off to start with ..." To digress a bit no country can piss anyone off. A particular American might piss you off or a group of Americans, like our Congress, can piss you off. Some of the policies of a country might piss you off. But “America" can't piss you off. There are countless folks in this country that feel as you do and many even stronger. Do they piss you off because they live in this country even though they agree with your position.

Trust me: I'm all for getting in someone's face if they piss me off. But I'm not going to jump on my barber's ass because the checkout lady at the grocery pissed me off. Collateral damage is always unfortunate. Especially when it was completely unnecessary.

[AgentR11]

Price of a primary export falls from 100'ish to 60'ish. Its a large export, and a fairly small economy; thus, its impact is exaggerated as far as book reporting, thus we do in fact have a "depression" by western economic model definitions.

Does such a "depression" place Putin in any significant stress: No.
Does such a "depression" have any significance with regard to Russian defense plans: No.
Does such a "depression" place infrastructure repair of Crimea in jeopardy: No.
Does such a "depression" place anyone in Russia at greater risk of hunger or privation: No.

Does such a "depression" place Western market share for chocolate bars and bmw's in jeopardy: Yes.
Does such a "depression" place wine and spirit market share in jeopardy: Yes.
Does such a "depression" cause Russian vacationers to travel domestically instead of to EU: Yes.

Our media is determined to make us believe Russia is about to implode. They have been determined to convince of this for over a year. I promise you, no matter how convinced we become about Russia's imminent implosion; it ain't happening.

The reality is simple. Russia grows more food that it consumes. It produces more oil and gas than it consumes. It has domestic manufacturers for all heavy industries, and trade with China for the same stuff we trade with China for. Russia's ruble was, FOR YEARS, artificially pumped up in value in order to subsidize the import of luxury nick nacks from the West. When that support was cut (more rapidly than originally planned), the value of the ruble moved to where it belonged, Western imports became instantly uncompetitive, overpriced, and a poor value.

Unfortunately, such an event produces a discontinuity. Yet we continue to measure price and production changes before and after as if nothing all that interesting happened. Russia's economy today is a completely different critter than it was two years ago. Thats a bad thing if you were a German guy making stuff to sell in Moscow; as you can no longer compete on price. But it also means that something that cost 100 rubles a couple years ago, probably costs 150 rubles today.

My assertion is that we have to think of Russia pre-float, as an economy that died, and ceased to exist in Dec 2014. A new, different, economy came into existence in January; no less significant than when the USSR collapsed; with the only difference being that Russia owns more than it owes, and its current grain production far exceeds its domestic need. Thus, no starving Russians begging for mercy from a West that wants to shred them into pieces and divy up the spoils to oligarchs loyal to NY/London.

Eventually, our press guys are going to get creeped out by their narative, "Russia is the enemy, Russia is in dire straits, Putin is doomed, Putin is the devil." Run that line 10-20 years while nothing interesting happens to Russia, it'll wear thin.

[radon1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '
')
BTW, some genius posted BS on the front page about Russian inflation going out of control:

[AgentR11]

radon1, try to think objectively on some of these things. Any large move in numbers like that is almost certainly related to pulling of government support / subsidy; type action. Folks in Kiev-UA are feeling it the most of course; they have a hard deadline where those things MUST be gone, regardless of who suffers or who dies as a result.

You guys have been living in a seriously distorted economy for a long time; with the government using the "bread and circus" routine to keep everyone more or less grumbling along.

When an economist says 15% inflation; its not just about end user rent; it captures subsidies and all that mess. If the housing bill goes from 1000 to 1150 total; that could easily be the resident going from 500 to 1000 and the government going from 500 to 150. The cost of the residence changed 15%; but WHO PAID changed much more than that.

From a macro pov, "who paid" isn't all that relevant.

That said, ten years from now, I think most Russians are going to end up pleased with the result. Sucking a finite supply of oil out of the ground and trading it for all your modern conveniences is a dead end that can trap a nation for centuries.

As to redoing existing, serviceable pavement... well.......... welcome to the modern world. When you have private contractors and government dependent upon them for infrastructure the government ends up spending on projects just to keep their favorite contractors afloat; can even go so far as define the specs such that only one contractor has any hope of offering a competitive bid. Its a great game! you'll get used to paying for it soon enough.

[dissident]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('radon1', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '
')
BTW, some genius posted BS on the front page about Russian inflation going out of control:

[dissident]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'P')rice of a primary export falls from 100'ish to 60'ish. Its a large export, and a fairly small economy; thus, its impact is exaggerated as far as book reporting, thus we do in fact have a "depression" by western economic model definitions.

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Withnail', 'D')emand for gas is plummeting in Europe, according to the article. Really? Do we not need gas any more? What are the mechanics of this supposed sudden fall?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Withnail', '
')Some politeness and less juvenile 'LOL'ing wouldn't go amiss either.

That sort of thing is part of what makes you hated worldwide. You come across as delusional, arrogant, and obnoxious.

Look at this stupid fucking chart you posted from the Telegraph.

...

Can you even read it at that size? What the fuck is it supposed to mean?

[Withnail]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Strummer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Withnail', 'D')emand for gas is plummeting in Europe, according to the article. Really? Do we not need gas any more? What are the mechanics of this supposed sudden fall?

[ROCKMAN]

According to Platts just 2014 was warmer then normal while during 2013 it was colder then normal which explains the relatively high y-o-y % decrease in NG consumption in the EU-28. Additionally lower coal prices brought about some of the decrease in NG consumption as power plants switched to the nasty stuff thanks in part to lower CO2 penalties. And looking at the chart 2013 consumption fell to a level last seen in 2000. Maybe with a bit of help from coal and renewables but I suspect it was as much or more due to the economic hard times the EU has been gone thru for some time. But regardless of the decrease in NG consumption in the last 4 years the EU is still very dependent upon it for survival.

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics ... ific_Value).png

Platts: "European gas demand fell 11.2% on the year in 2014 to 409 Bcm, or 4,418 TWh, because of "exceptionally warm" weather, industry association Eurogas said Wednesday. The weather was the warmest in Dutch and German recorded history, and the warmest in 50 years for the Czech Republic, the organization said. This reduced the need for heating. The size of the year-on-year change was further boosted by the fact that 2013's winter had been colder than average. Eurogas said that "notably low coal prices" and "low carbon dioxide prices" had also reduced gas consumption in the power generation sector, combined with competition from increased renewable energy sources."

[Withnail]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')(I often disagree with Pops on some issues. We manage to discuss it and disagree without acting like small children. In fact, we manage to show each other some respect, even as we disagree. (That's a good thing about America, BTW -- free speech (in most conditions)).

[dissident]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Withnail', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '
')(I often disagree with Pops on some issues. We manage to discuss it and disagree without acting like small children. In fact, we manage to show each other some respect, even as we disagree. (That's a good thing about America, BTW -- free speech (in most conditions)).

[Withnail]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', '
')
There is nothing unique about guys protesting on street corners. It's not some precious only-in-America "freedom". Latin America, Eastern Europe and many other formerly dictatorial countries have had it now for over two decades. The US media loves to masturbate about how totally free the US is. The Occupy Wall Street movement showed the world that the US was just as "oppressed" as Russia and all the other targets (aside from the brain dead obvious ones like North Korea) of the US MSM propaganda machine.

[Ulenspiegel]

However, when we take serious Swedish academic publications on Russian economy and military as base we get a more nuanced but overall similar result:

1) Russia's GDP will very likely contract by 5% in 2015.

2a) Russia needs when we are talking about military aspects around 2.5% annual GDP INCREASE to finance important programmes in a sustainable way, therefore, 2015 means that Russia lose at least 3 years.

b) The low productivity of Russian workers (Russian GDP is as large/small as Italy's, this with a population of 140 million people) leads on one hand to a low unemployment, but on the other to severe problems of the Russian aremd forces to get people as professional NCOs.

c) To improve productivity reqiures foreign investments and access to modern technology, this is on halt due to the Ukrainian crisis. For me there is the real chance that Russia will lose much more years.

3) In re export of NG: If one checks the temperature corrected numbers then one still finds a decrease of NG imports for Germany and some other countries, the warm winter does not explain the whole reduction. This is no surprise when one knows a little bit about the demand side and options to replace expensive NG. I do not expect increased demand in the coming years, quite contrary, better quality of new buildings will reduce demand for heating which is almost half of the market; generation of electricity (10% of NG demand) is also under severe pressure.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Russian media is reporting an indefinite delay in the final signing of the contract for Russia’s state-run Gazprom to supply China with gas through a new Siberian pipeline because of a decline in Chinese demand for the fuel. The lower demand stems from an economic slowdown in China, reducing the country’s need for gas, as well as the increased availability of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from countries such as Australia. This is according to Valery Nesterov, an analyst with the Moscow investment bank Sberbank, who spoke in an interview published July 22 in the Russian-language financial newspaper Vedomosti.

Both gas deals were seen as a way to help jump-start Russia’s flagging economy. At one time it seemed that China would be the ideal customer. China’s gas consumption had grown by between 12 percent and 13 percent during 2013. But during 2014 it fell by 8.5 percent.

Because of the cost of building the Russian pipeline, Gazprom was comfortable proposing that the China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) pay a high price for the gas. But China now seems reluctant to pay that price and is willing to take its time to get Russia to agree to lower it. “Gazprom offers CNPC a high price, explaining this by the high cost of the Power of Siberia-2 construction. China is ready to build the pipeline at a cheaper cost and at public tender, so its companies could participate and for the construction price to be transparent,” he told the Russian television network RT. “Gazprom refuses, and China does not hurry.”

[Withnail]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ulenspiegel', 'H')owever, when we take serious Swedish academic publications on Russian economy and military as base we get a more nuanced but overall similar result:

1) Russia's GDP will very likely contract by 5% in 2015.

[Ulenspiegel]

OK, it depends which GDP you use, I give you this.

Point still is these two countries are GDP wise quite similar, population wise not. And your source does not change the fact that the low productivity in Russia is an issue, which even has military implications.

BTW: we will see in a few months how much the Russian GDP shrinks in 2015.

[ROCKMAN]

Withnail - "There's no standards and it's almost impossible to sue...". So your concept of free speech is that anyone should be free to express their positions...as long as they agree with your positions? Now I understand: you and Putin apparently attend the same "free speech" training program. LOL.

[Withnail]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ulenspiegel', '
')
BTW: we will see in a few months how much the Russian GDP shrinks in 2015.

[Withnail]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'W')ithnail - "There's no standards and it's almost impossible to sue...". So your concept of free speech is that anyone should be free to express their positions...as long as they agree with your positions? Now I understand: you and Putin apparently attend the same "free speech" training program. LOL.