[GHung]

OXI! Ugo Bardi, Gail Tverberg, Steve Ludlum & RE discuss the Greek Referendum .... and other stuff:

http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2015 ... eferendum/

Some of you may enjoy this vidcast, especially Ugo's and Steve's rants about halfway through; Ugo's about the failed Eurozone experiment and Steve's about "stuff". All agree that people, especially westerners will have to learn to live on a lot less, a tough reality for societies and economies geared to always more.

[GHung]

.... and none of those countries at the bottom of the chart have much of a manufacturing base (Italy excepted, perhaps), so their oil consumption is largely unproductive, especially in terms of exports, and these countries must import many of their essential resources. The need to import large amounts of dollar-denominated resources (OIL) with the currently strong dollar adds insult to injury. So it goes.

Of course, emigration to stronger economies is an option in the EU, though folks may not be so welcome,, and 'stronger economy' is relative, like greener grass.

[lateStarter]

Funny that such an old map is used. I was looking at Poland and saw Danzig. It hasn't been called that for quite some time, at least by people living in Poland.

Also, Lodz hasn't been an industrial area since before WWII (which might explain the Danzig thing) - it was a big textile producer.

But, it is true. We do have a lot of coal in Poland. At the moment it is cheaper to by coal from Russia and leave our coal in the ground. Polish coal miners, not so happy with the situation.

[davep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GHung', '[')b]OXI! Ugo Bardi, Gail Tverberg, Steve Ludlum & RE discuss the Greek Referendum .... and other stuff:

http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2015 ... eferendum/

Some of you may enjoy this vidcast, especially Ugo's and Steve's rants about halfway through; Ugo's about the failed Eurozone experiment and Steve's about "stuff". All agree that people, especially westerners will have to learn to live on a lot less, a tough reality for societies and economies geared to always more.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'D')ependency on ever-more-costly peaking-oil is the reason the PIGGS have suffered.

[kublikhan]

Haiti was in poverty even back when oil prices were low. And even with the high oil prices in 2013 and 2014, it's GDP grew 4.2% and 2.8%, respectively. It is one of the fastest growing economies in the Caribbean. As a whole, unemployment was lower and GDP growth was higher in the Caribbean than in Europe, despite their higher usage of oil. These facts do not support your premise.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')reliminary estimates indicate that the regional recovery continued in 2014, with 16 of CDB’s 19 BMCs expanding during the year. The ongoing recovery in tourism appears to have strengthened in 2014, with almost all regional destinations recording increased visitor arrivals.

Labour market conditions were largely a reflection of the general improvement in real sector activity, with unemployment rates falling in several BMCs, while inflationary pressures generally eased. Regional financial soundness and stability indicators generally exhibited improved compliance with prudential guidelines.

[kublikhan]

No, I don't think the problems with the PIIGS was southern irresponsibility anymore than it was peakoil. I think the Euro is a flawed currency.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he attempt to establish a single currency for sixteen separate and quite different countries was bound to fail. The shift to a single currency meant that the individual member countries lost the ability to control monetary policy and interest rates in order to respond to national economic conditions. It also meant that each country’s exchange rate could no longer respond to the cumulative effects of differences in productivity and global demand trends.

In addition, the single currency weakens the market signals that would otherwise warn a country that its fiscal deficits were becoming excessive. And when a country with excessive fiscal deficits needs to raise taxes and cut government spending, as Greece clearly does now, the resulting contraction of GDP and employment cannot be reduced by a devaluation that increases exports and reduces imports.

Why, then, is the United States able to operate with a single currency, despite major differences among its fifty states? There are three key economic conditions—none of which exists in Europe—that allow the diverse U.S. states to operate with a single currency: labor mobility, wage flexibility, and a central fiscal authority.

When the textile and shoe industries in America’s northeastern states died, workers moved to the West, where new industries were growing. The unemployed workers of Greece, Portugal, and Spain do not move to faster-growing regions of Europe because of differences in language, history, religion, union membership, and so on. Moreover, wage flexibility means that substantially slower wage growth in the states that lost industries helped to attract and retain other industries. And the U.S. fiscal system collects roughly two-thirds of all taxes at the national level, which implies an automatic and substantial net fiscal transfer to states with temporarily falling incomes.

The European Central Bank must set monetary policy for the eurozone as a whole, even if that policy is highly inappropriate for some member countries. When demand in Germany and France was quite weak early in the last decade, the European Central Bank reduced interest rates sharply. That helped Germany and France, but it also inflated real-estate bubbles in Spain and Ireland. The recent collapse of those bubbles caused sharp downturns in economic activity and substantial increases in unemployment in both countries.

[kublikhan]

Pstarr, we have already gone 12 rounds on the topic of what caused the 2008 recession. I suggest you put it back in your pants and table that discussion for now.

[kublikhan]

I was referring to you tabling the discussion of what caused 2008 recession. Feel free to continue to talk about the discussion in the OP

[ralfy]

"Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis"

http://ourfiniteworld.com/oil-supply-li ... al-crisis/

[kublikhan]

I think trying to equate oil prices and GDP growth is too simplistic. GDP encompasses a wide set of variables and trying to simplify it down to to only energy, or worse, only oil, gives you an incomplete picture. During the decade of 1975 - 1985, energy costs averaged 11.6% of US GDP. And the US averaged 3.4% of annual GDP growth. If you want to see when energy prices were really putting a drag on the US economy check out 1980-81. Energy costs approached 14%! During the decade of 1990-1999, energy costs fell to 7.1% of GDP. US GDP growth also fell to 3.3%. Despite this cheaper energy, US GDP growth still fell. Thus something besides energy costs impacts GDP growth. For the decade of 2000-2010, energy costs rose to 7.8% of US GDP. That's less than a 1% increase. Far shy of the energy costs of 1975-1985 which were over 11%.

Energy Consumption, Expenditures, and Emissions Indicators Estimates, Selected Years, 1949-2011

US Real GDP Growth Rate by Year

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pstarr', 'B')ut Greece like all the PIIGS cratered in 2008. That was/is peak oil.

[kublikhan]

Pstarr, I too am tired of rehashing this. That's exactly why I earlier asked you to table it.