When Did/Will We Reach Peak Oil?

by **LadyRuby** » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 00:50:56

Just curious what the current thinking is...

by **jato** » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 02:26:14

My guess=Peak Oil will be in 4th quarter 2005. However, the peak oil event may not be confirmed by the data until well into 2006 or 2007.

by **turmoil** » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 02:42:31

demand has been greater than supply since the beginning of this year, if i'm remembering correctly. The gap will only widen until new sources are brought online, but even then, demand will still be greater i think. Unless there is mainstream realization that the peak of World oil production has been reached, and there is volluntary/mandatory reduction in gas use.

by **OilyMon** » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 03:32:31

News articles and off hand comments seem to indicate that oil peaked in early 2005. We're two months post peak as of now.

by **Doly** » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 03:42:33

What news and comments are you referring to?

by **oli** » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 05:53:43

It appears we are in the phase where the price reflects the market's uncertainty whether future growing demand can be met reliably. I expect this will go on for some time (1.5 - 2 years), until the market's demand-flexibility get too tight. The current housing-bubble in America, as well as probably other things, such as for example filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (and its equivalents in other countries), may be expected to decrease demand indirectly.

At the point when it is certain that the increasing demand can no longer be met, we will be approaching the peak in production. I suspect that peak may be flatter than we, in our rethoric about a decrease in supplies, have felt it natural to consider.

I don't think the real effects of Peak Oil will be felt until after 2007, 2011 at the very, very latest.

by **Eli** » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 09:08:21

I think we are there right now at peak oil. SA the usual stop gap has been no help.

If housing takes a dive and the economy goes into recession. A slow down in the economy would mask the effects of peak oil.

But if there is in unrest in SA or Iraq that significantly disrupts the supply then everyone will understand that it is not just an normal economic downturn but lack of oil that is hurting the economy.

To keep the peak flat requires stability in the major Oil producing countrys which is no easy task.

by **Aaron** » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 09:08:22

Maximum recovery technology has masked the natural peak of the giant fields.

Producing numbers far in excess and for far longer than could otherwise occur.

I think OPEC and the other oil majors have been lying for decades to bolster investor confidence, and the world passed conventional peak some years ago.

Our collective commitment to greed has changed what would have been the gradual depletion of oil across many many years, into the cliff of death.

It is this perception which transformed me from PO Moderate to Doomer.

Conventional depletion = A painful but manageable transition.

Rapid Depletion = War

by **Eli** » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 10:06:02

Aaron that is the other major possabilty.

SA and the other Opec producers are stretched thin as it is if one of there major Oil Fields goes into rapid decline, it's game over.

It is very telling that the only oil they can bring to market in addition to what they are all ready producing is heavey oil not the light sweet crude. That is the 1.5 mbd that they said they recently added to the market.

If they are in decline it is Crtl-alt-Delete.

by **halfin** » Tue 21 Jun 2005, 23:01:05

It's not always easy to tell when you hit the peak.

World oil production FELL from 2000 to 2001 and again from 2001 to 2002. Then it was up in 2003 and up more in 2004. But if we had all been here on this board back in 2002, you can bet we would have been hearing all about how we had hit the peak and how it would be all downhill from there.

by **Novus** » Wed 22 Jun 2005, 20:47:52

The peak is less then six months away now. That is why I am here. I have known about peak oil for years and have seen this coming. There is only a tiny fraction of supply left and demand for it is growing like there is no tomorrow. Supply and demand crash in November and then it is all downhill from there.

by **savethehumans** » Thu 23 Jun 2005, 01:35:05

My stance is that PO is here. We don't know it yet, cuz the slide down hasn't started. Once it does, we'll know that we've been as high as we can go. Effects have already started (higher prices of gasoline and other oil-based items; road construction/repairs delayed; air industry collapsing; China and Russia/India and Pakistan are becoming good buddies; etc). The general population of the US (aka "sheeple") will not be able to duck seeing the effects after 2007.

Interesting story--read where Hollywood is mystified by the fact that they've got movies making money, but the Biz isn't making any money, and they have NO IDEA why not. Well, let's see--cost of tickets, popcorn, drinks, candy. . .and a video can be rented for under $5 and watched at home. NAH. Couldn't be that people don't have money to spend! Why, the whole economy depends on people spending money! And the economy's just fine!

Hummmm. . .something seems to be hitting my fan. What IS that icky stuff? :shock:

by **The_Toecutter** » Sat 25 Jun 2005, 23:59:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ummmm. . .something seems to be hitting my fan. What IS that icky stuff?

by **sicophiliac** » Fri 01 Jul 2005, 01:37:32

Well nobody really knows exactly when it will peak. Ive done some online research and have come up with some old articles that its already peaked around 2002. Some say fall of 2005, one prediction said 2008. I beleive it was the international energy association or something like that that said it would peak between 2013-2037? I figure if all of those are averaged out it'd be somewhere around 2010-2015. Still there are some varaibles.. for example if ANWR drilling gets approved as well as the offshore drilling congress is starting to think about pushing that could buy us maybe 2...3 years total. If... another huge maybe Iraq somehow gets stabalized its got the potential to drastically increase production of oil.. that might buy us 4-5 years im guessing. Also once it peaks it doesnt necessarily mean itll drop off like a rock... production might stay flat for a bit and give the world more time to adjust. As some places deplete... others might boost production or implement better technologies to exploit thier oil faster then otherwise possible. Pumping water into thier wells... doing side drilling and all that other stuff.

by **Dan1195** » Sat 02 Jul 2005, 18:28:21

I think at a minimum we are at the "petroleum plateau" and have been since early to mid 2004. This is liable to continue for a few more years. The enhanced recovery techiques Aaron mentioned will help create this plateau. How long this lasts will depends mostly on Saudi Arabia, particularly Ghawar, as I have mentioned before.

Of course, before we are truely past peak 2% oil demand growth wil be unable to sustain itself at some point. Beyond 2006 is doubtful. At some point prices will raise high enough to put the breaks on growth. I have read that China is currently keeping the price of gas the artifically low, if this is true it will just force the prices higher before demand destruction (since that is wher most of the growth is). I have also said no real shortages will occur, at least for a few years, as declining stocks will push up prices enough to crimp demand beforehand. Using the 70s as an analogy doesnt work here since they was a quick artificial supply reduction that caused a shortfall before prices could rise to destroy the demand.

All technical sources I have seen put peak before 2010. Averaging numbers of these sources with any estimate assuming 260 mb in Saudi reserves and/or 3000+ Gb total discovery should never be done, as they are assuming different base parameters and (most clearly) incorrect. WE know the 260 mb is a lot of paper barrels and only 6-8 GB of oil is now being discovered in a deal. Re: ANWR. 2-3 years? 6 months if we are lucky. Assumed there really is 15 Gb of recoverable. I have serious doubts that Iraq will be stable enough near term to significantly bump up production, and thats if majot increases are possible.

by **michaelc888** » Mon 04 Jul 2005, 10:31:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is very telling that the only oil they can bring to market in addition to what they are all ready producing is heavey oil not the light sweet crude. That is the 1.5 mbd that they said they recently added to the market.

by **khebab** » Mon 04 Jul 2005, 11:36:58

Conventional oil will probably peak very soon (2006-2007) in particular light sweet oil has probably already peaked (2004?). The unknown variable is how much can we hope from unconventional oil (tar sands, deepwater, etc.).

by **ApesForHumanity** » Wed 06 Jul 2005, 20:35:50

We are currently in the plateau period of oil production with no abillity to determine the ocurrance or the comming of the actual peak. The real question I believe is when and how fast the reprocutions of decline begin to affect our everyday lives.
My largest and most impending concern of collapse is that of our economic system, since that seems to be the most fragile of our social fabric in terms of PO.

by **Raxozanne** » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 02:53:58

Do you think it's around the right time to send out my 'Happy Peak Oil Day' cards then?

by **antigrav101** » Thu 07 Jul 2005, 19:57:46

Given the difficulty in fully extrapolating the reserves known and unknown, it is highly unlikely that any estimate attempting to nail down the "peak point" to within 10-15 years is any more accurate than a gut feeling. It dosen't matter. Civilizations dependance on oil will not cause a suddden collapse, but a general decline. The decline will be VERY gradual, because people are extremely adaptive. As fuel pricing goes up and availability becomes scarce, society will adapt. Industry responds by becoming more efficient (we have ALOT of room to grow here), people will move closer to their jobs, ride motorcycles, scooters and yes even bicycles. Cities may ban civilian motor traffic in downtown areas, homes will be constructed underground and yes this will be very good for the natual environment. Of course this all costs money, this is where the decline comes from. All this extra cost and bother will put most contries economies into long term recessions, I imagine the U.S. will be hit pretty hard. I am afraid the next major shooting war may well be for oil, with no coverups attempted. That truly concerns me. :cry: