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Global Peak Oil - 2015???

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Global Peak Oil - 2015???

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 23 Jun 2015, 18:04:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'A')fter the better part of a decade lurking and then posting on this site I am ready for it to be over. All the glimmers of false hope that have been offered since 2008 don't hold a candle to the reality we have made.

And I thought I had trouble not being too serious at parties...

So all the technological and economic progress since 2008 means nothing? Now THAT's a balanced attitude!

Sorry, but I guess as a moderate, I try to see both the good and the bad.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Global Peak Oil - 2015???

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 23 Jun 2015, 18:55:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Subjectivist', 'A')fter the better part of a decade lurking and then posting on this site I am ready for it to be over. All the glimmers of false hope that have been offered since 2008 don't hold a candle to the reality we have made.

And I thought I had trouble not being too serious at parties...

So all the technological and economic progress since 2008 means nothing? Now THAT's a balanced attitude!

Sorry, but I guess as a moderate, I try to see both the good and the bad.


What technical and economic progress specifically do you think has been made in the last decade?
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: Global Peak Oil - 2015???

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 23 Jun 2015, 19:44:14

This from Oilprice:

2015 Could Be The Year Of Peak Oil

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he EIA has finally updated their International Energy Statistics with data through February 2015. All data in the charts below are Crude + Condensate and is in thousand barrels per day with the last data point February 2015.


Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') am now more convinced than ever that 2015 will see the peak in world crude oil production. I have very closely studied the charts of every producing nation and my prognosis is based on that study. I see many nations in steep decline and most every other nation peaking now, or in the last couple of years, or very near their peak today. These include the world’s three largest producers, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the USA.
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
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Re: Global Peak Oil - 2015???

Unread postby sparky » Wed 24 Jun 2015, 03:03:10

.
Pops , I don't see any long term difference between supply and demand , it's just that they have a different timeline ,
which make the whole system unstable .
there is ( since 1942 ) an algorithm called the Ziegler and Nichols tuning response ,
every instrument tech got it drilled into their head at school

it would indicate that crude is in a strong under-damped response cycle
IE , for all of you benighted non instrument techs , the cycle become unstable !
the price feedback signal amplify at each half cycle bouncing off the top and bottom limits
a sharp rise crush demand , a deeply depressed demand destroy ongoing supply
some boom and bust appearing on the trends as spike and troughs with the same time period but stronger intensity

also called painting the chart for the result on a paper recorder
anyone has noticed some boom and bust crude oil price with associated boom and bust economic activity ?

Yee ! I thought so , it was all in my head :twisted:
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Re: Global Peak Oil - 2015???

Unread postby suburbanandy » Fri 26 Jun 2015, 20:51:05

When oil prices move in a different direction from other commodities may be one measure for determining peak oil. That hasn't happened. In the 2007-2008 spike, it was a spike in commodities.


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