[KaiserJeep]

No, not at all, ennui2. Stop trying to put words in my mouth, because you are clueless.

Tanada, think about this. NONE of those famous climate models can be demonstrated to be an accurate model in the sense that when we roll back the clock and feed them historical data, they successfully predict ongoing average global temperatures, point temperatures, high altitude temperatures, or whatever they are modelling. Nor have I ever seen two climate models with the same purpose ever agree.

My conclusion is that the system being modelled is too complex, and the data fed to the models is entirely inadequate, and the state of the art in computing entirely inadequate to model climate.

I personally have no doubt that as we emerge from the Pleistocene Ice Age, the globe is in a really long term warming trend. I believe that the cycle we are in now most resembles the Interglacial Period four Ice Ages ago, from 430,000 BC to 400,000 BC. That says that we are about halfway through the Interglacial, have some warming remaining, and will probably reach the peak Interglacial Temperature (aka the Climatic Optimum) sometime within about 500 years, and possibly as early as a century or so from today.



I note nothing alarming about this graph. We have also had the Mini Ice Age and the Medieval warming period during recorded history, two periods of temperature extremes greater than today.

There is nothing to get excited about, except that we are running out of oil to burn for energy. THAT will kill a lot of people.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'N')ONE of those famous climate models can be demonstrated to be an accurate model in the sense that when we roll back the clock and feed them historical data, they successfully predict ongoing average global temperatures, point temperatures, high altitude temperatures, or whatever they are modelling.

[Lore]

It's been a tough few weeks for our climate change denial political leadership. First their 18 year warming pause has been shown to be an illusion. Then, the Pope's encyclical on climate change has been officially announced. Only to be reinforced by the latest NASA/NOAA reports that 2015 is now ontrack to be the hottest year globally ever recorded. Surpassing the record set by last year, 2014. Oh, and the Arctic sea ice isn't fairing too well either.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'N')o, not at all, ennui2. Stop trying to put words in my mouth, because you are clueless.

Tanada, think about this. NONE of those famous climate models can be demonstrated to be an accurate model in the sense that when we roll back the clock and feed them historical data, they successfully predict ongoing average global temperatures, point temperatures, high altitude temperatures, or whatever they are modelling. Nor have I ever seen two climate models with the same purpose ever agree.

My conclusion is that the system being modelled is too complex, and the data fed to the models is entirely inadequate, and the state of the art in computing entirely inadequate to model climate.

[onlooker]

Kaiser that is a cop out. As Tanada eloquently detailed we have paleo-climate records that are conclusive in terms of the relation of CO2 and climate. Plus if anything these computer simulation have been consistent in ONE thing they have continuously underestimated the effects to be experienced and seen from climate change. Meaning things are happening much faster then modeled. Finally, we have the thermal inertia of the ocean creating a lag of temperature change in response to CO2 levels of about 40 years. Meaning expect to see more warming in the near future. Oh and do not forget some feedbacks kicking in like in the Arctic with permafrost melting and methane escaping in greater amounts.

[onlooker]

I do not wish to insult but Kaiser you really fit into the "None are so blind as those who do not wish to see"

[sparky]

.
"Why do our political leaders deny peak oil & climate change?"

in short because they are elected by the people , the pope is not , Al Gore is not

the paleo-temperature record prove CO2 and temperature are linked ,
it do NOT prove CO2 is a driver , rather the opposite , CO2 is lagging, driven by temperature
this phenomenon can be seen every year in the CO2 reading ,
the sawtooth squiggle is not CO2 changing the seasons , it's the seasons changing the CO2

as for the models , they are simply worthless ,

they predict the past pretty well but fail miserably as soon as used forward ,
blaming incomplete knowledge of long weather pattern or clouds or ocean thermal dynamic is simply journalism of the worst kind ,
I have more respect about someone which acknowledge it's limited understanding while holding a theory
than someone which claim to be absolutely sure and dismiss inconvenient facts

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '.')
the paleo-temperature record prove CO2 and temperature are linked ,
it do NOT prove CO2 is a driver , rather the opposite , CO2 is lagging, driven by temperature
this phenomenon can be seen every year in the CO2 reading ,
the sawtooth squiggle is not CO2 changing the seasons , it's the seasons changing the CO2

[sparky]

.
Tanada , thanks for your civil answer , however let me retort

the CO2 and other minor but powerful atmospheric gases are indeed Infra red absorbers ,
I've calibrated IR absorption analyzers and are familiar with a basic level of the physic.
this absorption take place at two frequencies windows ,
an effect is very noticeable at low level but it is not linear
IE it need increasing quantities of gases concentration to obtain larger differences ,
that's why past concentrations in the thousands of PPM didn't cook the planet
believing that 500ppm is the end of the world is an apocalyptic romantic pose ,
it has no chance of ever happening

I accept that the climate has been warming since 1980 at least ,
while standing looking at the Franz Joseph glacier in Austria ,I could observe personally that a couple of cubic miles of ice was missing , other too were very shrunken ,
this doesn't happen after a couple of bad years ,it take decades !

certainly the monstrous release of CO2 by humans is bound to have a sustained warming effect
but how much and how bad is simply not known , anyone saying otherwise is deluded or disingenuous
the historical variations you allude to , and others ,
are to be taken as the natural variations of the climate during the historical record
there is such a thing , and it can be quite sudden and brutal ,humans had nothing to do with it

Back to Anthropogenic global warming ,I do not denies some possible unquantified human influence,
but am highly , VERY highly skeptical about some of the claims taken as gospel by fanatics
whose zeal far exceed their understanding .
further the components of climate are barely understood ,
certainly not quantitatively to any degree of accuracy ,
that's why the models are horse-shit , they are computer driven arguments to prove a point
they work fine as political tools but have a minimal amount of hard science in them ,

Some would argue , on the precautionary principle that it's better to be safe than sorry ,
that's a good principle , paranoia has a strong survival value ,

but is there a civilization threatening danger ? are the solutions proposed possible ?
I'm totally skeptical on the first ,
and would put global warming pretty much down on the list of our civilization massive threats
the solution proposed are mostly fantasies , a good number seems to preach a society with the same amount of comfort and social support with a lower energy input , that is a criminal fantasy
a lower energy society would simply crush most of their citizen down to absolute misery
I've seen enough of that , in various countries ,to know what being energy poor does to working people
elective democracy , public health and social benefits would largely disappear
men would be back into dangerous drudgery as expandable work units ,
women would be pushed back performing household chores

that's what it was and I don't want it , no sir ,not for as long as we can hold to it

P.S. "The warmest period driven by Astronomical cycles in this interglacial were around 12,000 ybp"
that was the end of the largest and latest ice age , Mesopotamia started with the Ubai culture 6000ybp

[Keith_McClary]

Predictors of climate change awareness and risk perception vary around the globe
July 27, 2015
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')"Overall, we find that about 40 percent of adults worldwide have never heard of climate change. This rises to more than 65 percent in some developing countries, like Egypt, Bangladesh and India. There is still a critical need for basic climate literacy in many countries."
...
worldwide, education level is the single strongest predictor of climate change awareness and that understanding the human causes of climate change is the strongest predictor of risk perception, "particularly in Latin America and Europe, whereas perception of local temperature change is the strongest predictor in many African and Asian countries,"
...
"It was interesting to uncover these differences across countries, but in some ways one of the most insightful outcomes is the reminder that what motivates one person to engage with this issue is not necessarily the same as what motivates the next person."
...
The researchers analyzed responses in relation to such variables as gender, age, religion, education, geographical location, finances, well-being, beliefs about climate change, civic engagement, media habits and satisfaction with local air and water quality. They divided respondents into those "aware" or "unaware" of climate change and call the contrast between developed and developing countries "striking." In North America, Europe and Japan, more than 90 percent of the public is aware of climate change, but in many developing countries relatively few are aware of the issue, though many do report having observed changes in local weather patterns.
...
the most important predictors in China are not the same as in the United States," Markowitz says. Among the factors most important for predicting Americans' awareness of climate change was civic engagement, more access to media and higher education, while in China the strongest predictors were education, urban rather than rural residence and household income, the team reports.
For risk perception, among the strongest predictors in the U.S. were beliefs about human influence on the climate, perception of whether local temperatures have changed and attitudes to government involvement in environmental preservation. In China, among the strongest predictors of concern was dissatisfaction with local air quality.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sparky', '
')Back to Anthropogenic global warming ,I do not denies some possible unquantified human influence,
but am highly , VERY highly skeptical about some of the claims taken as gospel by fanatics
whose zeal far exceed their understanding .
further the components of climate are barely understood ,
certainly not quantitatively to any degree of accuracy ,
that's why the models are horse-shit , they are computer driven arguments to prove a point
they work fine as political tools but have a minimal amount of hard science in them ,

[dinopello]

House Republicans Plan to Call for Action on Climate Change!

Wait, is it April 1 ?

Nope.

But the Pope is visiting and it's only 10 of them so far...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ep. Chris Gib­son, a New York Re­pub­lic­an, led the charge in craft­ing the res­ol­u­tion and con­vin­cing oth­er Re­pub­lic­ans to speak out in sup­port. “This is a call for ac­tion to study how hu­mans are im­pact­ing our en­vir­on­ment and to look for con­sensus on areas where we can take ac­tion to mit­ig­ate the risks and bal­ance our im­pacts,” Gib­son told Na­tion­al Journ­al.

Reps. Ileana Ros-Le­htin­en and Car­los Cur­belo of Flor­ida, Robert Dold of Illinois, Dave Reich­ert of Wash­ing­ton, Pat Mee­han, Ry­an Cos­tello, and Mike Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, and Richard Hanna and Elise Stefanik of New York all con­firmed to Na­tion­al Journ­al that they have signed on as co­spon­sors of the res­ol­u­tion.

The tim­ing is no ac­ci­dent. Pope Fran­cis has warned that man-made cli­mate change will hurt the poor and most vul­ner­able mem­bers of so­ci­ety, and the Vat­ic­an is call­ing on world gov­ern­ments to work to­geth­er to fight glob­al warm­ing in June.

When Fran­cis speaks to Con­gress next week—an event that will mark the first time any pope has ad­dressed a joint ses­sion of the House and Sen­ate—he is widely ex­pec­ted to call for bold and de­cis­ive ef­forts to com­bat Earth’s rap­idly-rising tem­per­at­ures.

Vir­tu­ally all of the House Re­pub­lic­ans who have signed on to the soon-to-be in­tro­duced cli­mate res­ol­u­tion hail from mod­er­ate or swing dis­tricts, many in the North­east­ern U.S.

A num­ber of the co­spon­sors are up for reelec­tion in 2016 in mod­er­ate dis­tricts where back­ing a res­ol­u­tion in fa­vor of cli­mate change could help them in the race.

[Cog]

No surprise the most liberal Republicans would jump on this issue. This will go nowhere.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'N')o surprise the most liberal Republicans would jump on this issue. This will go nowhere.

[Lore]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'N')o surprise the most liberal Republicans would jump on this issue. This will go nowhere.

[ennui2]

I'm waiting for catholics to ask to introduce some way to nullify a Pope. Francis seems to be the most liberal Pope ever.

[Cog]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'N')o surprise the most liberal Republicans would jump on this issue. This will go nowhere.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cog', 'N')o surprise the most liberal Republicans would jump on this issue. This will go nowhere.