[Graeme]

Again the answer is no. The main driver for investment in renewables is the falling cost to produce electricity. But as the following IEA report demonstrates (quoted by Bloomberg), more investment in RE is required to prevent global temperatures from rising above 2 degrees.

Fossil Fuels Just Lost the Race Against Renewables

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he race for renewable energy has passed a turning point. The world is now adding more capacity for renewable power each year than coal, natural gas, and oil combined. And there's no going back.

The shift occurred in 2013, when the world added 143 gigawatts of renewable electricity capacity, compared with 141 gigawatts in new plants that burn fossil fuels, according to an analysis presented Tuesday at the Bloomberg New Energy Finance annual summit in New York. The shift will continue to accelerate, and by 2030 more than four times as much renewable capacity will be added.

"The electricity system is shifting to clean,'' Michael Liebreich, founder of BNEF, said in his keynote address. "Despite the change in oil and gas prices there is going to be a substantial buildout of renewable energy that is likely to be an order of magnitude larger than the buildout of coal and gas."

[ralfy]

From what I remember, some types of unconventional production will peak after only a few years. If conventional production cannot be maintained, then total oil and gas production may peak and drop.

Also, renewable energy needs fossil fuels for mining, manufacturing, and shipping. In addition, other material resources needed, including various minerals and even fresh water, also face issues similar to peak oil.

Given that, the only way to prevent AGW is to decrease energy and material resource use significantly worldwide, and to use whatever is available only for basic needs. That means economic growth will at most be minimal, with economies coordinating with each other globally.

Given the fact that the complete opposite has been taking place for decades, and that RE development is still based on profit-making, high returns on investment, and increasing use of resources amid competition and markets based on price mechanisms, then conservation is not likely.

[onlooker]

Good points Ralphy. Which begs the question of whether we should have ever been under a capitalist economic system. The answer is obviously NO. Rather some sort of socialist / communist system. The reason being that it should have never been about profit or growth rather just taking care of peoples needs and allocating resources in a wise manner for precisely that purpose. If history shows us something it is that in fact it was working in both Soviet Union and China. NEEDS not wants. Also, for those that say Man does not live by bread alone, precisely that recognizes that we need a certain level of entertainment and relaxation.

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'G')ood points Ralphy. Which begs the question of whether we should have ever been under a capitalist economic system. The answer is obviously NO. Rather some sort of socialist / communist system. The reason being that it should have never been about profit or growth rather just taking care of peoples needs and allocating resources in a wise manner for precisely that purpose. If history shows us something it is that in fact it was working in both Soviet Union and China. NEEDS not wants. Also, for those that say Man does not live by bread alone, precisely that recognizes that we need a certain level of entertainment and relaxation.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'B')ut at least renewables are starting to stand on their own merits now.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'W')e can hope. Looking at the CA RPS report, they expect most growth to come from PV to get to 33% by 2020. Not exactly sure why they don't include BIG hydro in that chart?

[Pops]

Thanks Kub.
Below is a chart of US oil/gas E&P through last year. Not sure how much of that $300B spent every year for the last 6 or 8 years is fracking but I'm thinking it is big. It is similar to the amount spent on all new global investment in RE in the same period — again, just in the US alone, and of course probably much of it was fracking.



I'm pretty sure no one who invests in PV expects to bring in a gusher, but I'm gonna say pretty well everyone who bets on an oil company does, LOL. Still, it is hard for me to believe that none of those trillions of investment would not have found their way to RE had it not been for the potential gusher of fracking.

Actually it dawns on me that some of the biggest RE players in the early 2000s were BP, Shell and Chevron — remember "Beyond Petroleum"? Take a guess at how much they are investing in RE now?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') growing portion of oil companies' portfolios these days is in the "unconventionals" -- the oil sands of Alberta, the natural gas formations of the Marcellus Shale, the ultra-deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, the frigid Arctic, and the tight oil reserves that underlie South and West Texas and western North Dakota.

They require new techniques that are extraordinarily risky and expensive, and so the companies have turned their venture dollars away from "clean" technology and toward innovations in drilling, subterranean mapping and hydraulic fracturing.

[Pops]

Roger at Euan Mearns' blog picked up on the same Bloomberg chart I did in the OP. He plotted the annual growth rate of EU wind and solar:



The bump in '14 might make that trend a little shallower.

[ROCKMAN]

Pops - isn't that the problem with looking at the PERCENT increase instead of the absolute increase? If the same amount of infrastructure is added yearly the % increase should consistently decline. IOW going from I to 1.5 is a 50% increase. And going from 1.5 to 2 (the same 0.5 absolute increase) is now just a 33% increase. And from 2 to 2.5 is a 25% increase. Etc.

[hvacman]

Re: "large hydro" vs "small hydro".
Small hydro is defined by the Federal Energy Act (FEA) as less than 10 mW capacity with dams and 40 mW or less for "conduit" hydro systems. The FEA exempts small hydro from many of the more stringent environmental and regulatory standards that "large hydro" have to comply with. Small hydro therefore "counts" as renewable when looking at the definition of the RES "renewable energy standard"

Most "small hydro" are systems with the following characteristics:

- turbines that have been retrofitted onto existing small storage reservoirs and dams that are just recovering energy from discharged water primarily dedicated for other purposes. The dams were already there. The power is fed into the grid similar to how PV is - when the water is released for its primary purpose, power is generated and fed into the grid. It is not "dispatched"

- turbines on tributaries and smaller creeks that just use diversion dams without any significant storage to divert some water from the stream channel into the system penstock. The water is then put back into the stream bed downstream, so overall flow is not impacted except in the small section where a percentage of the flow was diverted into the penstock. "Run of river" is the term.

- frequently owned by independent operators. Most have been installed since 1978, when the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission "FERC" redefined the FEA to allow independent generators to feed into the grid.

"large hydro", besides the higher MW rating, also typically use higher dams with significant storage and vary the flows significantly over the days and the seasons in the main stream channel. The turbine operations are managed based on grid and utility need. The operators will crank up output during peak demand, then back off during low-demand. Mostly owned by major utilities or governmental agencies. Because of the larger environmental issues of their storage reservoirs and dams, fewer have been built in recent decades and most have been in operation since going back to before the EPA came into existence.

Here's a link to FERC's licensing page. http://www.ferc.gov/industries/hydropower/gen-info/licensing/exemptions.asp

[kublikhan]

I still think you would be better off looking at the subsidy picture to get a better idea of what is going on with renewables instead of looking at fracking.

European picture:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')Renewable energy investment in Europe advanced less than 1% in 2014.]

[Pops]

Thanks guys.

[Ulenspiegel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'P')ops - isn't that the problem with looking at the PERCENT increase instead of the absolute increase? If the same amount of infrastructure is added yearly the % increase should consistently decline. IOW going from I to 1.5 is a 50% increase. And going from 1.5 to 2 (the same 0.5 absolute increase) is now just a 33% increase. And from 2 to 2.5 is a 25% increase. Etc.

[Pops]

I understand the difference between new investment declining and declining investment.

The point I was trying to make is projecting a trend where new investment is continually increasing and one where it is not (like now) lead to different outcomes.

[Graeme]

New investment in solar is increasing in the US.

Survey Of Big Investment Companies Shows Why We Might Be On The Verge Of A Solar Power Boom

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')pproximately two-thirds of big investment companies plan to prioritize solar power in the next five years, according to a new survey.
The survey, commissioned by financial services firm Wiser Capital, got responses from 100 representatives from large investment companies in the United States. It found that 32 percent of those companies plan to invest in solar for the first time this year, and 28 percent will invest in solar for the first time in the next two to five years. It also found that about 80 percent of the companies polled want to invest in solar “to support a cleaner energy future, and a little over 60 percent want to invest in it because they’re confident they’ll get a return on the investment.”

[Graeme]

Pops, We've talked about the exponential rise of renewables before in the RE and economic growth thread part 1. Here is another recent source (GTM) quoted by Motley Fool, which emphasizes this.

Solar Boom: Global Solar Market Could Triple in 5 Years

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he global solar boom that began a decade ago shows no signs of slowing, and by 2020 the amount of solar generating capacity installed worldwide could triple. That's according to new projections from GTM Research, one of the most reliable sources in the solar industry.

The simple fact that solar energy is growing that quickly is astounding, but the reasons for the industry's growth and the drivers are what makes this something everyone should be watching.

Solar energy's exponential growth

Over the past decade, global solar installations have grown from 1 gigawatt in 2005 to an expected 55 gigawatts this year. But that's just the beginning of solar energy's growth. By 2020, installations are expected to be 135 gigawatts per year as solar energy becomes more and more competitive with other sources of electricity.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'P')ops, We've talked about the exponential rise of renewables before in the RE and economic growth thread part 1. Here is another recent source (GTM) quoted by Motley Fool, which emphasizes this.

Solar Boom: Global Solar Market Could Triple in 5 Years

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he global solar boom that began a decade ago shows no signs of slowing, and by 2020 the amount of solar generating capacity installed worldwide could triple. That's according to new projections from GTM Research, one of the most reliable sources in the solar industry.

The simple fact that solar energy is growing that quickly is astounding, but the reasons for the industry's growth and the drivers are what makes this something everyone should be watching.

Solar energy's exponential growth

Over the past decade, global solar installations have grown from 1 gigawatt in 2005 to an expected 55 gigawatts this year. But that's just the beginning of solar energy's growth. By 2020, installations are expected to be 135 gigawatts per year as solar energy becomes more and more competitive with other sources of electricity.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'P')ops, We've talked about the exponential rise of renewables before in the RE and economic growth thread part 1. Here is another recent source (GTM) quoted by Motley Fool, which emphasizes this.

Solar Boom: Global Solar Market Could Triple in 5 Years

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he global solar boom that began a decade ago shows no signs of slowing, and by 2020 the amount of solar generating capacity installed worldwide could triple. That's according to new projections from GTM Research, one of the most reliable sources in the solar industry.

The simple fact that solar energy is growing that quickly is astounding, but the reasons for the industry's growth and the drivers are what makes this something everyone should be watching.

Solar energy's exponential growth

Over the past decade, global solar installations have grown from 1 gigawatt in 2005 to an expected 55 gigawatts this year. But that's just the beginning of solar energy's growth. By 2020, installations are expected to be 135 gigawatts per year as solar energy becomes more and more competitive with other sources of electricity.