msn has a piece in their 'Answer Desk' entitled "What happens if oil output 'peaks'?"
Its here
PeakOil is You
People are really getting worried
MSNBC: What happens if oil output 'peaks'?
by fred2 » Wed 29 Jun 2005, 15:48:52
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by ararboin » Wed 29 Jun 2005, 20:21:24
Meanwhile, out here in the midwest, everything's fine. No problems here. All's well in lemming land as all excitedly prepare for the 4th festivities. For instance, here's an ad straight out of the 60's appearing in this week's rag:
GREGORY'S (SD)
DEMOLITION DERBY
$2500 CASH PURSE
SUNDAY, JULY 3, 2005
Plus, compact car derby between consolation and GRAND DADDY!
WIN A CHANCE TO DRIVE A DEMO CAR
ETC., ETC.
I'll wager the last gallon of gas in the US will be used up in a NASCAR rally.
GREGORY'S (SD)
DEMOLITION DERBY
$2500 CASH PURSE
SUNDAY, JULY 3, 2005
Plus, compact car derby between consolation and GRAND DADDY!
WIN A CHANCE TO DRIVE A DEMO CAR
ETC., ETC.
I'll wager the last gallon of gas in the US will be used up in a NASCAR rally.
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ararboin - Lignite
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Re:
by AdamB » Fri 22 Aug 2025, 20:03:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', '
')If we see oil hit 100 a barrel Matt Simmons and Campbell, Deffeyes will all be doing the news show circuit, you can bet on it.
')If we see oil hit 100 a barrel Matt Simmons and Campbell, Deffeyes will all be doing the news show circuit, you can bet on it.
I'll bet they did make it to the telly! The more clips of how ignorant they were in real time is GREAT!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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AdamB - Volunteer
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Re: People are really getting worried
by AgentR11 » Fri 29 Aug 2025, 11:47:56
People are always worried about ... something.
So what happened when production peaked? Demand destruction. The thing that the doomers claimed would derail society and send us all into a Mad Max apocalypse. Yet what it really did is delete wasteful uses by people of modest means. And just like that the demand, price, supply curve smoothed itself out, and here we are, coasting along at peak while engaging in some of the most amazing expenditures of electrical power imaginable, AI and crypto mining, being amongst them. Meanwhile Beijing spends electricity charging up thousands upon thousands of drone batteries to perform anime lightshows over the skylines of their cities. Solar, coal, NG, nuclear, hydro, even wind, all combined to produce a complete new landscape in the realm of overall energy.
So what happened when production peaked? Demand destruction. The thing that the doomers claimed would derail society and send us all into a Mad Max apocalypse. Yet what it really did is delete wasteful uses by people of modest means. And just like that the demand, price, supply curve smoothed itself out, and here we are, coasting along at peak while engaging in some of the most amazing expenditures of electrical power imaginable, AI and crypto mining, being amongst them. Meanwhile Beijing spends electricity charging up thousands upon thousands of drone batteries to perform anime lightshows over the skylines of their cities. Solar, coal, NG, nuclear, hydro, even wind, all combined to produce a complete new landscape in the realm of overall energy.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
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Re: People are really getting worried
by AdamB » Fri 29 Aug 2025, 20:12:35
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', 'P')eople are always worried about ... something.
So what happened when production peaked? Demand destruction. The thing that the doomers claimed would derail society and send us all into a Mad Max apocalypse.
So what happened when production peaked? Demand destruction. The thing that the doomers claimed would derail society and send us all into a Mad Max apocalypse.
As someone who is not an economist...but now plays one on TV sometimes, this game can be played in both directions/ Lack of supply...the peak oil angle...and lack of demand...a perfectly acceptable economic angle.
I just did my first 6 months of EV ownership analysis. Based on my electric costs, EV efficiency, gasoline costs related to the ICE machine the wife would otherwise have driven, here are some numbers. Spent about $11G on a brand new EV, collected a payment of about $210/month because I was required to for like a year to get one of the incentives off MSRP. Fuel costs are about $55 in electons. For 6 months of fuel.
I calculated my costs for driving the ICE machine across that same time period, approx $160/month for the same miles as driven by the EV.
So....a difference indeed. To buy a brand new EV, and drive it and fuel it thousands of miles, costs about $60/month than PUTTING ONLY FUEL IN AN ICE MACHINE. Damn. I'll take that kind of demand destruction in terms of my costs every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', ' ')
Yet what it really did is delete wasteful uses by people of modest means.
Works like a charm. Peakers should have tried to squeeze the BASICS of this graph into their ideas 20 years ago....they wouldn't have come out looking like such dolts.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR11', ' ') Solar, coal, NG, nuclear, hydro, even wind, all combined to produce a complete new landscape in the realm of overall energy.
Indeed. And the WHY sits in that graph. Such a simple idea, but quite powerful.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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AdamB - Volunteer
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