[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')I read it. Useless.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')but it is not possible with tangible/fungible/necessary and especially LARGE oil.

[ennui2]

This has been a dead issue for over 6 years. If you'd like to argue it endlessly like the JFK assassination or 911, go ahead and bump this comment section. What the episode told me is that there is no 1:1 linear correlation between geological depletion and oil prices. And if you factor in the difference between CONVENTIONAL oil depletion and prices, the correlation is even weaker (which actually validates a lot of what Yergin would like to say, as much as I hate to admit.)

You can't just look at a price chart and derive the amount of total recoverable oil that's left in the ground, and the main thrust of peak oil doomerism hinged on the oil spike up through 2008. Hence when priced tanked, the credibility of doomers tanked with it, which is why The Oil Drum is gone and Matt Savinar is a new age astrologer.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')but it is not possible with tangible/fungible/necessary and especially LARGE oil.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '.')..The market price.

[Pops]

Come on, you never give up, Pete. LOL

mos says it has nothing to do with oil price, just financial shenanigans.
You say it is only about oil price and supply.

My point is isn't an either/or thing. For 10 years we've tried to hang PO on this simplistic hook or that but the problem is PO is a not one thing, not just flow or eri or price or whatever.

I posted the plot of spare capacity because supply was constrained — but there was also a butt load of longs in oil futures too that came crashing down in july 08

Gamblers in the market magnify the swings for no benefit to anyone but themselves.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'G')amblers in the market magnify the swings for no benefit to anyone but themselves.

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', ' ')That is peak oil. Not speculation.

[onlooker]

Greer has a great new post on his Archdruid. It pertains to the different eras in the ongoing process of collapse. First two eras were the eras of pretense and impact which we have been navigating. Now according to Greer we are entering into the era of response. What is telling is how we have so long and firmly held onto to the first two eras. the whole 20th century was about not mentioning or acknowledging the possibility of future collapse or that we were engaged in practices which were not sustainable and could lead to collapse. Of course Limits to Growth warned about this but like so many at that time they were completely mocked or ignored. So now we still are trying to minimize and understate probable consequences. As Greer stated we are somewhat responding but not directly or robustly enough, we are in fact seeking band-aid approaches that do not deal with the primary challenges ahead. So we have the tepid Green movement under the moniker of Green growth which is a oxymoron. Also, the tepid Climate Summits which are proceeding at snails pace completely in contrast to the level of seriousness. Also, note by Greer is the gimmick of creating money. Basically it seems to me that we have done little to avoid or head off major collapse. So after the era of half-hearted responses will come the era of breakdown which because of our failure to prepare for we will be woefully unprepared for.
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/

[ennui2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')There are no new megafields waiting to be discovered, no exciting extraction technologies (lateral/fracting is 50 years old), no new wealth in the world that will allow us to wring substantial new reserves from the earth. But population and desire are exponentially increasing every day and less and less oil is around to propel the global economy. It is surely collapsing.

[onlooker]

That good points Ennui. For now peak oil has been held at bay. But like many things now in the world, the era of consequences is fast approaching.

[Pops]

The big inevitable price spike is the problem with the PO theory. Price can only go so high before people stop buying, at that moment surplus oil causes the price to fall.

That is if markets are functioning.

I'm more and more convinced the '08 price spike was caused more by the Clinton era abandonment of Glass Steagal limits on commercial banks and the loosening of speculative limits in futures markets than by fundamentals. No doubt publicized spare capacity was low but it has been just as low since and we've not had a repeat of the spike. I've not seen a better explanation of the spike and fall than the precise coinciding date of the closing of the London Loophole with the peak in prices in '08.

Which isn't to say I think PO is a figment of a GoldSack's wet dream, but I am fundamentally less confident of any one (or one thousand) analysts'/pundits'/economists' ability to keep track of all the balls. Even less so some anonymous poster on the internet (including this one).

[onlooker]

Well, my impression is that mainly the 08 crash was the product of the real estate bubble bursting along with the peak of conventional sweet light crude. Other factors like the repeal of Glass could also of played a role.

[ennui2]

BTW, this one just came in my FB feed.

http://www.sciencealert.com/world-hunge ... n-25-years

So this again cuts against the grain of Pstarr's broad picture of the 3rd world facing the immediate brunt of "peak oil" (meaning now) and we just don't see it because we are fat, spoiled, bigoted, and pricing them out of the market.

We'll get there, no doubt, but not...right...now.