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John Michael Greer: The Archdruid Blog

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Greer's Long Descent is getting Shorter

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 11 May 2015, 16:10:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'A') simple selective search of all Plantagenet's comments on the peakoil.com forum database returns 4820 with the term 'Obama'. Are those gushing love letters?

I don't think so.


Really? Every post where I mention Obama is't a gushing love letter? Wow! Thats a big discovery, peter.

And so what is your point?--- is it that you want all the posts at the site to only express "gushing love" for Obama?

Or could it be that every time you mention Obama it is a gushing love letter?

For crissakes, Peter, why do you (and ennuis2y for that matter) even care if every post here isn't a "gushing love letter" to Obama? Is it some kind of proto-fascist censorship urge you've both got, or what?

OK---if I write a "gushing love letter" to obama will it make you happy? Can we then go back to talking about the thread topic, or at least move on to some other more intelligent line of discussion, please?

OK --- just for you---here it is!

Cheers! :)

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Peter + ennui2y --- do you heart obama too? Gosh if I heart obama and you heart obama then we all heart Obama....!
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Re: Greer's Long Descent is getting Shorter

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 11 May 2015, 17:18:39

It is an Obama lovefest :-D :P
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Re: Greer's Long Descent is getting Shorter

Unread postby evilgenius » Mon 11 May 2015, 21:48:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jesus_of_suburbia', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ontequest, on the other hand, was kind of emotionally repressed. He found it almost impossible to express himself in the first person. He hid behind boilerplate quotes from Catton and Bartlett. So he just seemed more like a bot than a real person. He would reveal what he did for a living or some of his pet projects like making raised beds, but he NEVER admitted to any emotional anguish over doom. Only when he was boxed into a corner and had to cop to some situation with his ailing mom, and then he disappeared for like a year because it got too personal.

I don't necessarily expect this site to be a support network, and at times it actually has served the opposite purpose, brushing up with people who were keyed into doom but seemingly wired the totally opposite way that I am, but I just want to know they're human.

What I will never understand are the people on this site who believe the future is more or less set in stone, yet spend so much effort and time trying to win an argument with people who don't. That's kind of how I viewed Monte, as someone who was way too committed to proving his internet opponents wrong. He's obviously very knowledgeable and probably a nice guy in the real world, but I really just never understood his or similar posters' motivations.

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I got into it with Montequest over the whole 'lifeboat in the water' thing. He tried to say that you could average the people's situations, and therefore box them all into groups. Basically, he was for admitting that some people had to die when there wasn't enough room on the lifeboat for everybody. I said we can't do that. Instead we have to figure out how to rotate people into and out of the water, so that we could extend the time until rescue. I hoped that by extending the time we could wind up rescuing more people. I didn't deny that the situation was dire, nor that without rescue that number he mentioned were still going to die. What I insisted upon was that no matter what the situation with people in the water, if we rotated them we could save more people assuming that some rescue came. He kept kept saying that his scenario didn't include room for rescue in that way. I kept saying that's what you do, no matter what because people matter. I don't think you can give up if you operate out of free will, which is to say that you operate out of the dictates of your heart and tell reality all about it with all of your body, mind and soul.
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Re: Greer's Long Descent is getting Shorter

Unread postby evilgenius » Mon 11 May 2015, 21:57:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ennui2', '.').. make people hate Obama ....


Hopefully you're not so stupid as to start hating Obama just because he gets criticized occasionally.

Relax ennui2y----no president is perfect and every president sometimes gets criticized.....it comes with the job.

Cheers! :lol:


Thanks man. I like that you said that in response to what was said. You could have given a much more over the top reply than that, and have, but you didn't.
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Re: Greer's Long Descent is getting Shorter

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 12 May 2015, 11:24:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')A simple selective search of all Plantagenet's comments on the peakoil.com forum database returns 4820 with the term 'Obama'. Are those gushing love letters?
I don't think so.


That comes out to roughly 1/3 of all his posts. And of course, his posts across all topics and threads whether it has anything to do with Obama or not. I thought the percentage would be higher but he started posting here before Obama ran for president. If you restrict it from 2008 onwards it's gotta be over 50% with an Obama mention.
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Re: Greer's Long Descent is getting Shorter

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 12 May 2015, 11:33:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '
')I kept saying that's what you do, no matter what because people matter. I don't think you can give up if you operate out of free will, which is to say that you operate out of the dictates of your heart and tell reality all about it with all of your body, mind and soul.


Monte and his ilk intellectualize this situation for so long enough they start to treat the excess population like merely an accounting problem. They see the macro and not the micro. And then it becomes a little easier to sit back in your chair and advocate this or that policy that could "lighten the load on the biosphere". This is why I used to post a photo of Drax from Moonraker in Monte threads.

Image

The ends always justifies the means with people like that.
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Re: Greer's Long Descent is getting Shorter

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 12 May 2015, 13:48:30

I gave up hope around Climategate/Nopenhagen. That really was the last chance were we could move towards some sort of global awakening instead of shrugging it off and focusing on the economy.

People have really short memories and they forget massive events like LiveEarth that came and went without making a dent.

The fact that the only straw I've got left is to be a Musk fanboi is pathetic. I am following him not because I think he's the savior but because I've really got nobody else left to admire who has any sort of national exposure. McKibben's 350.org is a bust, for instance, and the guys' been on the press circuit a few times, like Letterman. Nobody pays attention to activism anymore. The only way to get through to them is to give them something to buy.
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Re: Greer's Long Descent is getting Shorter

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 12 May 2015, 15:01:11

Maybe from the ashes of this decadent world-wide civilization will arise it's antithesis. If as some philosophers and savants have declared, humans ultimately seek a balance a type of ying-yang, then this will make sense. Let us hope some sort of ashes remain to resurrect some kind of functioning society. But even more so let us hope that this society is very different from the current one.
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Re: Greer's Long Descent is getting Shorter

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 14 May 2015, 12:22:34

Read JMG's essay from this week. He makes reference I believe to the post Ennui made regarding his shifting the goal posts from a few hundred down to 50 years.
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Re: Greer's Long Descent is getting Shorter

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 16 May 2015, 08:16:15

Wow I think Greer response was magnificent. I quote his paragraph "Now of course there’s nothing inconsistent about any of these statements". The decline and fall of a civilization isn’t a single event, or even a single linear process; it’s a complex fractal reality composed of many different events on many different scales in space and time." This should be evident to anyone analyzing all this. Also, Ibon it is consistent with your other thread in which you pointed out that many factors will play into collapse/die-off or resiliency. The US like other rich countries are not equipped to function in a non fossil fuel world. How will the US and other countries adapt? That is a huge question. So I must give Greer much credit for defending his position so well. Collapse is not a moment but an ongoing process that is complex and uneven as Greer said both in time and space. Periods of acute challenges could be interceded by periods of somewhat stability happening at different times in different places. I do believe however that the future will test our ability to cooperate concomitant with our propensity to compete. We must see ourselves as all in the same boat. Truly the adage United we stand divided we fall will be applicable in the future to come.
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Re: Greer's Long Descent is getting Shorter

Unread postby Loki » Sat 16 May 2015, 12:43:47

He reiterated his position, which I don't find contradictory. Collapse won't happen overnight, it's a long, punctuated process. Yep.

But his constant scoffing at the fast crashers is somewhat ironic given that he takes some pretty "fast crashy" positions. Contrary to the protestations in his latest blog post, the notion that most Americans won't have running water or electricity within the next few decades is a fast crash proposition. Not overnight armageddon, but a massive collapse within the lifetimes of many Americans.

His posts last year about Ebola are even more fast crashy. An example from 10/1/14:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')eanwhile the Ebola epidemic has apparently taken another large step toward fulfilling its potential as the Black Death of the 21st century....

[T]he steps that could keep Ebola from spreading to the rest of the Third World are not being taken. Unless massive resources are committed to that task soon—as in before the end of this year—the possibility exists that when the pandemic finally winds down a few years from now, two to three billion people could be dead. We need to consider the possibility that the peak of global population is no longer an abstraction set comfortably off somewhere in the future. It may be knocking at the future’s door right now, shaking with fever and dripping blood from its gums.


This is pure, unadulterated hyperbolic doomerism at its best/worst. We all know how that prediction turned out.

I like Greer, I like his blog, I like his long view of both history and the future, but he's not the slow crasher that he fancies himself.
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Re: Greer's Long Descent is getting Shorter

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 17 May 2015, 02:04:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I see them as different expressions of the same event: the 2005 peak of inexpensive conventional petroleum and world-wide demand destruction.


Well, you're wrong, just the same way the Church Lady thinking everything is Satan is wrong. Correlation is not causation.

You can hold onto that fateful date all you want, despite the online rag that called it (The Oil Drum) now being dead and gone due to the PO movement's current irrelevance, and then point to every news story of violent upheaval in the world as a "sign" all you want. It doesn't make it so.
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Re: Greer's Long Descent is getting Shorter

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 17 May 2015, 11:07:01

pstarr/ennui - In a way I agree/disagree with both of you on a number of aspects. As you know the date of PO is totally irrelevant to me. It's all about the Peak Oil Dynamic. And it's easy to focus on the POD in one's own universe. There's been some POD pain in the US over the years but nothing on the order of the great suffering in other areas of the world. One can even go back 70 years to those aspects of the POD that motivated the Japanese military command to push its govt into attacking the US fleet at Pearl Harbor. More recently one could attribute the violence in the Ukraine at least partially the result of the POD.
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Re: Greer's Long Descent is getting Shorter

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 17 May 2015, 17:29:37

Well said pstarr. It's all far to complex to fit on a bumper stick or expressed in a few short lines on a blog. But it often takes such a turn just like so much like of our political and economic discussions: focus on a single aspect ignoring the interconnections. I know I get long winded at times but even then I often don't go into enough detail.
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Re: Greer's Long Descent is getting Shorter

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 18 May 2015, 17:06:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Yes, I have faith in facts. You've never explained how supposed speculation caused a run up to $147 oil.


Sure I did. Here is a refresher course.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')Here is your chance now. Have at it. (and see if you can accomplish it without resorting to hyperbole and insult).


Bubbles have happened many times throughout history. Prior to the real-estate bubble we had the dot-com bubble and crash which happened when oil was dirt cheap. So you can't say that all bubbles are a case of investors grasping at straws due to peak oil.

While I understand Chris Martenson's thesis about the interconnectedness of oil with all the rest of the economy, I think this is ultimately an oversimplification, and there are other factors that can create both booms and crashes, both locally and globally. I think when ones agenda is to "prove" peak-oil then one is predisposed to create a correlation-is-causation argument and to disregard other factors. If you feel that the general public won't "get" peak-oil, if you can somehow link it to things people DO get "like the recession" then maybe you have a bridge in order to get them to take the red-pill. Right? But that doesn't mean the analysis is accurate. I disagreed with Richard Heinberg's rhetorical shift from 2008 onward, which has pretty much followed this track of trying to "remarket" peak-oil as the credit-crisis, wage disparity, or any other ills the world faces. The points of connection are just too tenuous and it reeks of desperation to try to keep a topic relevant that isn't anymore.
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