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No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019
Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019
by ROCKMAN » Wed 15 Apr 2015, 08:16:17
U - Certainly some valid points. But: "The ultimate irony is that Germany has enough spare capacity in the North Stream,". The NS line is fed with Russian NG. Which, at the moment, is good business for both Russia and Germany. So in that sense what "spare capacity" Germany has could be eliminated overnight if Russia chose to. Granted I don't see motivation for Russia doing that anytime soon. But in a 10 to 20 year time frame a combination of alternative outlets and a potential decrease in Russian NG reserves might change that balance of power.
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019
by AgentR11 » Wed 15 Apr 2015, 08:26:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ulenspiegel', 'T')he basic weakness of Russia is that it can only hurt Europe by cutting very deep into her own flesh, possible but IMHO quite unlikely when the Russian economy is already expected to shrink by 5% without such a move.
And once again, check the capacity of North Stream and what is actually used.
And once again, check the capacity of North Stream and what is actually used.
Nord Stream is actually one of the reasons why I think this is going to work OK.
As to cutting their own flesh. This is Ukrainians and Russians we're dealing with. They'll eviscerate themselves if it'll make the party opposite suffer a bit more; so that form of your argument is actually counter to your suggested result. However, I think you misunderstand this move a bit. Its not about cutting Europe off or any of that other inflammatory BS that runs the forum trolls crazy on both sides. Russia will be happy to sell you guys as much gas as you want to buy, as long as it doesn't transit Ukraine.
Now, of course, *I* would prefer yall to pay double for *my* gas, all nicely packed in an LNG sphere and shipped across the ocean; but I'm pretty realistic about the prospects. The way I see it, Russian, and a bit later, Iranian gas will be available via Turkey; in 2018, Europe will run its storage facilities up to full. In Jan or Feb of 2019, with EU storage at full (hopefully), Russia will pull the plug on all the pipes going into Ukraine except perhaps the one feeding in from Rostov into Donbass (they may take responsibility for their *mess*.. maybe). This pulling of the plug can either be by turning a valve or if Russia feels they aren't being believed, by explosives. (explosives having the benefit of letting Putin blame Right Sektor terrorists or something else lame) Some EU company will then be granted permission to quickly lay pipe connecting Southern Europe with the gas hub in Turkey; and before anyone runs out of anything, Russian gas will continue to flow. I suspect Russia will take a hit on price, but gain predictability, and sane billing.
Nice thing is, for believers in the free market, is that once that happens, Europe and Asia will be in the same gas market, and over time, the price might even level out. Doesn't help our producers here as much as it would if you guys were to jam a stick in your eyeballs and pay what we in the US would charge for shipped LNG (which would benefit me personally, so please, definitely DO!) but its what I think is most likely.
One thing is certain though, UA transit is toast. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia went so far as to say UA can buy their gas from Germany or Poland. Sometimes you have to fire a customer when you just can't manage to do business with each other in a civil fashion; regardless of "fault".
As much as you'd like to believe otherwise, Russia is not obligated to sell, nor is it obligated to make product available by means the EU dictates. A producer/merchant, in the free market, is allowed to display their wares as they see fit (more or less), its up to the seller then, whether they want to buy.
Or do we only believe in the free market when it works to our immediate advantage?
nb... I don't think Putin cares how much the Russian economy shrinks. He only cares about whether the relative portion of it that he controls increases; and sanctions have helped him out tremendously in that regard. This move on gas will also help him out quite a bit, even if it causes another 10-20% shrinkage in the overall economy, though it won't. We need to stop pretending some magical force will remove him from office and replace him with 'our' guy again; won't happen. Period.
nb2... Please do fire Russia as a supplier and buy from the US, or at least try to. Producers are getting ripped off here so bad....
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And so shall we remain,
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019
by Cid_Yama » Wed 15 Apr 2015, 13:09:40
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ussia and China have begun the construction of a new gas pipeline linking the countries, with a ceremony in the Siberian city of Yakutsk.
China's CNPC has agreed to buy $400bn (£240bn) of gas from Russia's Gazprom.
Russia will ship 38 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas annually over a period of 30 years.
The deal will lessen Russia's dependence on European buyers, who have imposed economic sanctions because of the crisis in Ukraine.
The construction ceremony was attended by Russian President Vladmir Putin and Chinese Vice-Premier Zhang Gaoli.
China will start work on the construction of its side of the pipeline in the first half of 2015, Mr Zhang said.
The first gas will be pumped from Siberia to north-east China in early 2019.
China's CNPC has agreed to buy $400bn (£240bn) of gas from Russia's Gazprom.
Russia will ship 38 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas annually over a period of 30 years.
The deal will lessen Russia's dependence on European buyers, who have imposed economic sanctions because of the crisis in Ukraine.
The construction ceremony was attended by Russian President Vladmir Putin and Chinese Vice-Premier Zhang Gaoli.
China will start work on the construction of its side of the pipeline in the first half of 2015, Mr Zhang said.
The first gas will be pumped from Siberia to north-east China in early 2019.
link
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ussia pivoted decisively towards the East on Sunday, after signing another mega-energy agreement with China, which could dwarf Europe as the largest consumer of Russian gas once the project is completed.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fifth meeting in a year with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, on the sidelines of the summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Conference (APEC), yielded an agreement that seemed to rebuff Europe, which had imposed sanctions on Russia following the crisis in Ukraine.
China would receive 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas per year along the so-called “western” or "Altay" route, according to the agreement. This would supplement the proposed 38 bcm Russian gas to China that would flow through the “Power of Siberia” pipeline, passing along the “eastern route”. The “eastern route” deal, worth $400 billion, was signed in May, and work on the project has already commenced.
Sunday’s agreement is meant to lay the groundwork for a full-fledged contract later. “We have reached an understanding in principle concerning the opening of the western route,” said Mr. Putin, before he flew into Beijing for the APEC summit. “We have already agreed on many technical and commercial aspects of this project, laying a good basis for reaching final arrangements,” he observed.
Aleksey Miller, a senior member of Mr. Putin’s inner circle and head of the energy giant Gazprom, announced that once it materialises, the deal would hedge Moscow’s dependence on the European energy markets. “After we have launched supplies via the “western route,” the volume of gas deliveries to China can exceed the current volumes of export to Europe,” he observed.
link
As for Merkel looking East, was talking about China more than Russia, And also the AIIB. Germany-China trade has increased massively during Merkel's tenure, even being referred to as the 'Golden Decade'.
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Re: No transit of Russian gas through Ukraine by 2019
by dissident » Wed 15 Apr 2015, 22:29:53
I missed this bit of news:
http://rt.com/business/232987-gazprom-r ... stitution/
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')azprom, Russia’s largest gas company plans to expand the program of import substitution by no longer buying metal and engineering products from more than 400 foreign firms, which could mean $2.5 billion in lost orders from Russia.
http://rt.com/business/232987-gazprom-r ... stitution/
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')azprom, Russia’s largest gas company plans to expand the program of import substitution by no longer buying metal and engineering products from more than 400 foreign firms, which could mean $2.5 billion in lost orders from Russia.
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