[onlooker]

very interesting article detailing many facets of the issues facing the oil industry. A good primer for those wishing to learn the basic facts and find out the current situation. Here is link:https://aleklett.wordpress.com/2015/02/15/the-crash-in-the-price-of-oil-may-change-the-oil-market-a-look-at-the-ieas-oil-medium-term-market-report-2015/

[Plantagenet]

Thanks for linking to the interesting article by Prof. Aleklett.

I found three things interesting in the article:

1. Aleklett once again confirms that 2005-6 was the peak in conventional oil production.

2. Aleklett now believes that "The Peak Oil that we now discuss is the peak of unconventional oil production." In particular, shale oil production is key to detraining when the world hits peak oil.

3. Aleklett goes on to say "Since production of this type of oil is very price sensitive the oil market will be a factor contributing to when we reach the global peak of all oil production. There are strong indications that 2015/2016 may see this global peak."

------------------

After all the predictions of global oil production peaking in 2005 didn't pan out, I'm more cautious in evaluating new estimates of when peak oil will occur-----but there it is. Aleklett thinkss the current oil glut, the drop in US shale oil drill, and the drop in global oil production going on right now due to the current low oil prices may signal the actual top is occurring right now.

Could it be that 2015-16 will actually be the date of PEAK OIL!

[onlooker]

Also, notice in the article how their is some hesitation on the part of oil companies because of how global warming could factor into the equation in terms of society willing to continue to rely on fossil fuels. That definitely could be a factor going forward.

[KaiserJeep]

We're gonna need to burn lots of FF in the USA to run our air conditioning.

[ROCKMAN]

"We're gonna need to burn lots of FF in the USA to run our air conditioning." Especially in Texas which is why we're one of the global leaders in wind generated electricity. And also why we plan to continue burning lots of coal here.

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '
')
1. Aleklett once again confirms that 2005-6 was the peak in conventional oil production.

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KaiserJeep', 'W')e're gonna need to burn lots of FF in the USA to run our air conditioning.

[ralfy]

I think the peak refers to the ave. production rate across several years.

[onlooker]

Pstar good point and funny as heck. It is like a ship that is sinking what difference does it make gauging the exact moment the ship goes under. The importance lies in the entire process.

[ralfy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'I') think the peak refers to the ave. production rate across several years.

[dashster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'T')here is no one single date for peak oil.

[onlooker]

good points dashter. First explanations given are beside the point. The reality is as with any economic commodity a demand-supply issue. As supply is reduced price must go up in order to re-balance demand with supply. Demand ultimately is at the mercy of supply no matter how anyone spins it. As for exact date of PO, again I and Pstar would reiterate that exact date does not matter. The progressively worse and worse effects are the evidence of the downhill slope of peak oil.