[DesuMaiden]

Peak oil has huge ramifications. Here's a summary of the ramifications of peak oil:

The most important consequence of peak oil is that the population bubble will burst. In 1900, there was only 1.6 billion people on the Earth. And 115 years later, there are now over 7 billion people. These extra 5 billion people exist on this planet ONLY because of fossil fuel energy. The Green Revolution dramatically increased the amount of food produced around the world. As a consequence, the population dramatically increased. But the Green Revolution was made possible only because of abundant fossil fuels. If you take away the fossil fuels, food production around the world would plummet. Leading to mass famine and starvation that has never been experienced by the human race. The population will crash from 7 billion plus people to under 2 billion people within the span of a few decades. This is undeniable to people who truly understand peak oil. There is no way in hell the Earth can support the current population--much less the population in another 20 to 30 years--without abundant fossil fuels. No amount of technology and human ingenuity can prevent this population collapse from happening.

There are ten calories of fossil fuel energy used to produce every calorie of food in the industrialized world. If you take the fossil fuels away, you take away the food, and if you take away the food, the population goes away. It is that simple.

Also, virtually every technology invented since 1859 (when oil was first drilled for by Edwin Drake in Pennsylvania) was made possible only because of oil. Everything ranging from cars (and other transportation technology), computers (like desktops, laptops, video game consoles, cellphones, ipods, etc), plastics, shoes, clothing, cosmetics, food and countless other products exist only because of oil. If you take the oil away, virtually all modern technology will cease to exist. If you take the oil away, we are going back to the Middle Ages, quiet literally. This is no exaggeration.

Here are a few things you take for granted that will cease to exist without oil. Say bye bye to cars, airplanes and other modern transportation devices. You are going back to bicycles, horses and walking as transportation in the post-oil future. Say go bye to computers and the Internet, which are also petroleum products. Yes, this website exists only because of oil, too. Say bye bye to most of the human population, which exist only because of oil. Say bye bye to industrial civilization, which exists only because of oil.

I don't care if this post offends anyone. These are just facts. Denying facts don't make facts go away.

[ROCKMAN]

D - Doesn't hurt my feelings. Just all part of the POD.

[vtsnowedin]

There is one thing (at least) you forget. There is a great body of scientific knowledge that exists and won't go away when fossil fuels are depleted. We will not return to the middle ages with religion dictating that the word is flat and the center of the universe. Trees will still grow ,paper and books produced and libraries kept open with some computers run on renewable energy. The future may be a lot harder then the present but it will be a new future not a return to the past.

[DesuMaiden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'T')here is one thing (at least) you forget. There is a great body of scientific knowledge that exists and won't go away when fossil fuels are depleted. We will not return to the middle ages with religion dictating that the word is flat and the center of the universe. Trees will still grow ,paper and books produced and libraries kept open with some computers run on renewable energy. The future may be a lot harder then the present but it will be a new future not a return to the past.

[vtsnowedin]

I think you are off on that as well. The technologies will survive and those that require an energy input to function will have an alternative source of energy supplied. There may well be a lot less of it due to limitations on alternate sources of energy but the energy we do have will be applied with the highest level of technologies available.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', 'T')here is one thing (at least) you forget. There is a great body of scientific knowledge that exists and won't go away when fossil fuels are depleted. We will not return to the middle ages with religion dictating that the word is flat and the center of the universe. Trees will still grow ,paper and books produced and libraries kept open with some computers run on renewable energy. The future may be a lot harder then the present but it will be a new future not a return to the past.

[DMarsh]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', '\')
I don't care if this post offends anyone. These are just facts. Denying facts don't make facts go away.

[ennui2]

If you factor in global warming entering a feedback-loop, I would not count on the future 100-200 years from now being very livable. The world of the future will not just be the 1800s over again if the biosphere is collapsing. It will be more like Cormac McCarthy or Mad Max.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DMarsh', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DesuMaiden', '\')
I don't care if this post offends anyone. These are just facts. Denying facts don't make facts go away.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', '
')Peak oil is really about passing a point in time when we have the most oil that we are ever going to have for consumption. We're already a long way past the per capita peak, mainly due to the number of consumers doubling and production not doubling since the 1970s.

The absolute global peak in production is looming about now (or so it appears).

Increases in efficiency has allowed the oil to do more work for more people, but eventually, the quantity available will decline to the point that energy substitution or doing without will be the only solution. The point when we "run out" is probably at least 100 years into the future by which time almost every oil consuming process will have migrated to alternative forms of energy or abandoned.

[dolanbaker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '
') I don't see this coming down to a peaceful adjustment period at all. chaos , war and famine are much more likely.

[ROCKMAN]

"I would not count on the future 100-200 years from now being very livable." A viable prediction IMHO given that there are countless millions who today don't find their existence "very livable". Like the millions who die yearly from easily curable diseases and infections. And then there are the countless millions surviving today on near-starvation level diets. Of course, if the prediction is directed towards those who will get pushed down the pyramid by the POD then yes: the future would look bleak.

[sparky]

.
On the subject of technology survival , that's an interesting one
technology need its environment to survive , some will be worth investment to keep alive
ball bearings are critical , electrical welding , plastics , light emitting diodes , three phases motors
large iron smelting , tires , steam technology , digital machine tools ...etc , etc

those are important , but a tech can only survive if its support system and manufacturing base is able to be renewed
else the last item is made when the first vital component fail and cannot be replaced ,
I can imagine integrated circuits and electronic components being hoarded as vital national resources
to fix the machines which make the stuff
there would be large and increasingly desperate recycling , then scavenging

There is also the problem of the erosion of the knowledge base , the survival of the text is not the problem , the survival of an education system forming people who have a theoretical and practical ability to understand and use the knowledge is not a given , even if it prolong itself , some short time and long time decay can be expected

Some example of lost knowledge , in the Aegean , following the Minoan civilization ,they forgot writing
invaders and local destroyed the administrative and religions class
post Roman North Africa forgot the wheel ,
the increased disrepair of the road , shrinking of the urban network and the decrease in internal trade made animals caravans a better options

PS . in case you wonder why ball bearing , they drastically reduce friction when moving large loads , they allow transition efficiencies of near 100% , tires make flat road surface possible , iron bound wheel would destroy a road network in a few decades , roads are one of the largest investment in energy saving in a society , no good roads , no good trade

[Sys1]

Well, it's not that simple.

- First, you can slowly decrease population with a 1 children Policy just like China did. A collapse of population would not necessary mean an extermination.
- Second, almost 90% of food production is dedicated to animals which are then eaten by humans. If this food production is used directly for humans, we would need FAR LESS food than today. Moreover, a lot of culture is used to produce useless things like sugar for sodas/processed sugar food or biocarburant. In modern countries, more than 30% of food ends in trash, lot of food comes from other side of the planet even if it's useless, not tasty, and energy intensive. Future of humanity will be vegetarians eating local.
- Third, a lot of oïl is spoiled in personnal cars while oil should be used only for trucks,police, emergency and public transports.
- Forth, all the production today has only one purpose : consume more. We need to stop with growth. We can live very well without growth when we live in a country already too developed.

My conclusion is that the consequences of peak oil will be very slow. Actually so slow that we won't notice it. It will be only in several decades that we will Wake up seeing all the things that have changed since the beginning of the millenium.
Note that all of that is an hypothesis, we could also end up waking up a morning with a crash of world economy then 1 year later with a full scale thermonuclear war.

[ROCKMAN]

"First, you can slowly decrease population with a 1 children Policy just like China did". A common misconception that China has decreased its population. Since they initiated the one child policy in 1980 their population has increased by 430 million. IOW they've added more to their pop then the entire current US pop.

"The family planning policy, known as the one-child policy in the West, is a population control policy of the People's Republic of China. The term "one-child" is inexact as the policy allows many exceptions and ethnic minorities are exempt. In 2007, 36% of China's population was subject to a strict one-child restriction; an additional 53% was allowed to have a second child if the first was a girl. The policy is enforced at the provincial level through fines that are imposed based on the income of the family and other factors. "Population and Family Planning Commissions" exist at every level of government to raise awareness and carry out registration and inspection work."

"My conclusion is that the consequences of peak oil will be very slow. Actually so slow that we won't notice it. It will be only in several decades that we will Wake up seeing all the things that have changed since the beginning of the millenium." I suppose we all have different perception of the consequences of our energy depletion. I look back at the countless thousands of lives lost and $trillions spent in just the last 25 years and the escalation we see happening today and see anything but a slow dynamic.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', '&')quot;
"My conclusion is that the consequences of peak oil will be very slow. Actually so slow that we won't notice it. It will be only in several decades that we will Wake up seeing all the things that have changed since the beginning of the millenium." I suppose we all have different perception of the consequences of our energy depletion. I look back at the countless thousands of lives lost and $trillions spent in just the last 25 years and the escalation we see happening today and see anything but a slow dynamic.

[ROCKMAN]

vt - Indeed. BTW that wasn't my comment. It came from Sys1...must give credit where it's due. LOL.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dolanbaker', 'T')here is (& will be) huge amounts of production that would be extracted on the final 30% of the curve that is being extracted earlier, so the shark fin is more likely than ever before.