All the arguments have been gone over, ad nauseum.
Now that PO is entering the mainstream, we have the period of dueling experts.
I say, Choose your point of view and simply LIVE accordingly.
PeakOil is You
Problems with peak oil theory... (looong post)
by entropyfails » Mon 27 Jun 2005, 21:41:13
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y theory is that, as long as there is no shock (like tripling of prices overnight) but a slow, steady increase along the oil plateau, then peak oil will not be the end of the world at all- it may be hard, and involve driving 600cc cars, but the markets will prevail. At least in the west.
Oh… so you don’t actually have a problem with peak oil as a theory, you just feel that economic factors will extend the plateau and that reserve discovery and production numbers have been underreported.
Honestly, everything you have said points to you believing that oil production will in fact peak and decline (i.e. no problem with peak oil theory itself), only that the discovery and production numbers have been hidden. So why did you say the following?$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')I have some serious problems with the theory behind peak oil and would like to hear people's opinions.
You don’t have any problems with peak oil theory. You DO, however, seem to have problems with certain characterizations about the timeframe of peak oil and perhaps the magnitude of the problem. But why did you attack a straw man in this argument?
Hopefully we will see more clarity in your further posts, especially when you post something this long.
EntropyFails
"Little prigs and three-quarter madmen may have the conceit that the laws of nature are constantly broken for their sakes." -- Friedrich Nietzsche
"Little prigs and three-quarter madmen may have the conceit that the laws of nature are constantly broken for their sakes." -- Friedrich Nietzsche
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by Backtosteam » Mon 27 Jun 2005, 22:45:02
I really don't know what to tell you except that I agree that peak oil does not necessarily mean the world will come to an end. I also agree that oil production may plateau for many years before beginning a decline. We may not see a decrease in oil production for 25 years and then again it may start declining next year. If energy use per capita (which to me is the key indicator of our lifestyle) begins to decrease it will mean our lives will get harder. I have no idea how the masses will react to that. If people can understand the concept and adapt things may be pretty calm. If not who knows. The time frame is so unclear as nuclear and other sources may keep that curve flat (I think Duncan showed it's been flat for sometime now) for many more decades. And you're right...it's still very doable to buy property in this country and get yourself off the grid if you want.
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Re: Problems with peak oil theory... (looong post)
by MonteQuest » Tue 28 Jun 2005, 00:16:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SHiFTY', '
')1) Non-proven assumptions: The basic theory of peak oil is that US oil discoveries peaked, and about 15 years later, production peaked and then declined irreversably. The main assumption is that the aggregate production of the entire world's vast oilfields will also follow a similar distribution- the peak production will follow peak discovery. This incredibly crucial assumption is the chief flaw in the peak oil theory.
')1) Non-proven assumptions: The basic theory of peak oil is that US oil discoveries peaked, and about 15 years later, production peaked and then declined irreversably. The main assumption is that the aggregate production of the entire world's vast oilfields will also follow a similar distribution- the peak production will follow peak discovery. This incredibly crucial assumption is the chief flaw in the peak oil theory.
Non-proven assumptions? Welcome to the forum, Shifty. We have been over all of this already. I am afraid you won't make much headway here disputing peak oil theory.
And, I am afraid you are a bit off here with your history. US oil discoveries peaked in the 1930's, 40 years later, US production peaked and went into terminal decline.
World oil discoveries peaked in the 1960's, hence the 2000 to 2010 world peak oil prediction.
Peak oil theory applies to a single oil well, a region or a country. If discoveries follow a bell curve, production, for the most part will follow a similar curve, albeit perhaps a bit bumpy, or in the case of too much technology applied, steeper. The data is enormous on all the oil regions in the world that have mirrored the Hubbert's Curve. I suggest you review some of it.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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by SHiFTY » Tue 28 Jun 2005, 04:35:46
I guess I should have put some aspects more clearly - obviously there will come some sort of midpoint in oil production- it is a finite resource. But whether the entire vast planet's oilwells in aggregate will magically follow the same model as one country (the US) is a very "easy" idea relying on a unfounded assumption IMO.
Also the figures are not there- No-one actually knows, apart from speculation, whether reserve figures in the ME are accurate, in which case you've got at least 100 years. Frustratingly, there is far too much uncertainty to know anything.
When you factor in
*the very low US$,
*gambling by hedge funds on energy prices,
*massive underinvestment in production in the late 90s-due to LOW prices,
*the number of new oil projects coming on-stream
the whole idea that the entire *world's* oil will just suddenly peak looks a bit shaky.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he strange part to me is that I can today ride down highways full of oblivious people, and the breaking point, the beginning of the dieoff, is so, so close.
Also the figures are not there- No-one actually knows, apart from speculation, whether reserve figures in the ME are accurate, in which case you've got at least 100 years. Frustratingly, there is far too much uncertainty to know anything.
When you factor in
*the very low US$,
*gambling by hedge funds on energy prices,
*massive underinvestment in production in the late 90s-due to LOW prices,
*the number of new oil projects coming on-stream
the whole idea that the entire *world's* oil will just suddenly peak looks a bit shaky.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he strange part to me is that I can today ride down highways full of oblivious people, and the breaking point, the beginning of the dieoff, is so, so close.
Statements like this are pretty indicative of a doomsday cult, if there ever was one! Just because you really want the end of civilisation doesn't mean it will end.
The world population may be high, but its not exactly unsustainable- except maybe for the 3rd world. I doubt in western countries whether you would see much in the way of a dieoff even if oil peaked how you want it to. In any case, immunologists for years have been predicting a pandemic of something which will kill large portions of the world population.
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