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what awaits humanity this century?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

what awaits humanity this century?

A bright utopia
2
No votes
A mixed future, with much inequality and some die-off
10
No votes
Severe universal problems and some die-off
10
No votes
Armageddon - Extinction or near Extinction
9
No votes
 
Total votes : 31

Re: what awaits humanity this century?

Postby Ibon » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 17:14:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', ' ')The US without huge energy surplus will lose standing and ability to project power, that obviously opens the door for the next contestant for Global Hegemon and of course that Means War! Likewise, resource constraints always Mean War!


Great post Pops. Regarding this part, we are going to have a really lively debate going forward in our population regarding the US maintaining its position as Global Hegemon.

We talked about those millennials who increasingly aren't looking for the material ambitions of their parents. They will not want to see the US hegemony remain dominant at all costs. As apposed to the segment of the population that wants their SUV to burn all 8 cylinders into the sunset. We will have quite a social polarization around these two groups.

This will be very interesting.
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Re: what awaits humanity this century?

Postby Lore » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 17:28:47

I have to agree with the conflict scenario. Except this time it's not just about energy, but resource constraints along many avenues. Water, precious metals, gases, arable land, climate, not to mention credit. The list goes on. The additional historical difference is that there will be nowhere to run off to this time. No, untouched continent rich with an untapped source of fundamental supplies to draw from.

Which translates to many, many wars without end.

And I have come to believe It won't be that there is no gas in the tank that will get to us first, but lack of water and food.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]How Many Gallons of Water is in a . . .

Car
It takes an estimated 39,090 gallons of water to make a car. It's unclear if that includes the more 2,000 gallons used to make its tires--each tire takes 518 gallons to make.

Pair of Jeans
It takes around 1,800 gallons of water to grow enough cotton to produce just one pair of regular ol' blue jeans.

Cotton T-Shirt
Not as bad as jeans, it still takes a whopping 400 gallons of water to grow the cotton required for an ordinary cotton shirt.

Single Board of Lumber
5.4 gallons of water are used to grow enough wood for one lumber board.

Barrel of Beer
In order to process a single barrel of beer (32 gallons of booze), 1,500 gallons of water are sucked down.

To-Go Latte
It takes 53 gallons to make every latte, as I've noted before:

That sugar, doesn't that have to be grown as cane first? Hm. And then there's that plastic lid, which has to be created and distributed over hundreds of miles. And doesn't plastic require a pretty vast amount of water and oil to produce? Come to think of it, there's the sleeve and the cup itself too . . .

Gallon of Paint
Takes 13 gallons of water to make.

Individual Bottled Water
This irony shouldn't be lost on anyone: it takes 1.85 gallons of water to manufacture the plastic for the bottle in the average commercial bottle of water.

One Ton of . . .
Steel: 62,000 gallons of water
Cement: 1,360 gallons

One Pound of . . .
Wool: 101 gallons of water
Cotton: 101 gallons
Plastic: 24 gallons
Synthetic Rubber: 55 gallons

And that's just some of the stuff we make--check out how much water it takes to grow all of our food. We all need to make a conscious effort to watch what we buy for its water footprint. And it's not just the US, though--many countries around the world have alarmingly high water footprints, too. So keep your eyes open when you're shopping around--we're wasting way too much water.

http://www.treehugger.com/clean-technol ... -make.html
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Re: what awaits humanity this century?

Postby Newfie » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 17:37:39

I voted for 3. It seemed about right for my mood as of now.

This century has 85 years to run. Looking back 85 years ago was 1930. No one here was alive. We had just finished one Great War with another to go. Cheap abundant calories, and antibiotics lay ahead of us. The natural world had been hurt badly, but was still recognizable. Most folks in the U.S. still worked the land and could tell the difference between a sparrow and a starling, an oak and a fir.

In large scale we now have a very different future, mined out, logged out, top soil depleted.

Not looking so good.
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Re: what awaits humanity this century?

Postby joewp » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 19:16:55

I voted for 4, mainly because even if we completely run out of oil, natural gas, and coal we're still going to burn anything and everything on the planet that can burn, to cook food or to keep warm, so we are still going to be adding to the CO2 in the atmosphere. If anyone is still alive in 2100 I can almost guarantee that there will be less than 100,000 people on the entire planet, and those people will be in bad shape similar to the remaining reindeer on St. Matthew Island at the tail end of that population crash.

Everybody's pretty much catalogued all the reasons, but I'll add one more:

- Whenever we as a species are faced with a problem we always seem to do the exactly wrong thing, and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

let's face it, were in the middle of the sixth great mass extinction in Earth's history. What makes you think were going to survive, even if we are the ones who started it?
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Re: what awaits humanity this century?

Postby Ibon » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 19:36:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', ' ')If anyone is still alive in 2100 I can almost guarantee that there will be less than 100,000 people on the entire planet, and those people will be in bad shape similar to the remaining reindeer on St. Matthew Island at the tail end of that population crash.



That means some 9 billion plus (those alive now and those to be born before 2100) will be recycled into the food chain. There is simply not enough embalming fluid for so many people and cremation will add more carbon in the atmosphere. This is a market and a venture capitalist should support this company

http://www.urbandeathproject.org/


The Urban Death Project is a compost-based renewal system. At the heart of the project is a three-story core, within which bodies and high-carbon materials are placed.
Over the span of a few months, with the help of aerobic decomposition and microbial activity, the bodies decompose fully, leaving a rich compost.
The Urban Death Project is not simply a system for turning our bodies into soil-building material. It is also a space for the contemplation of our place in the natural world, and a ritual to help us say goodbye to our loved ones by connecting us with the cycles of nature.
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Re: what awaits humanity this century?

Postby onlooker » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 19:42:19

Great idea, at least our bodies can be used for something worthwhile !
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Re: what awaits humanity this century?

Postby Lore » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 19:43:19

I actually had an idea for a self burial system. Where you stand before your grave, keel over and trip a lever that automaticaly piles the dirt on top of you. My only problem is timing.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: what awaits humanity this century?

Postby onlooker » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 19:45:59

By timing do you mean dying prematurely 8) :o
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Re: what awaits humanity this century?

Postby ralfy » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 21:58:26

"Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse"

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse
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Re: what awaits humanity this century?

Postby Ibon » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 22:14:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '&')quot;Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse"

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse


In the late 70's when I was in the university we studied Limits to Growth in an environmental science class. I remember well this 40 year forecast and back then I was smugly sure we would not allow ourselves to be so stupid. I had the naivete that common sense would prevail. There is a part of me that feels like I am still 19 years old and currently living the nightmare of the worst case scenario forecasted back then.

In my way of thinking back then I imagined humans waking up and making every possible sacrifice to avoid this.

And here we are today and this state of affairs as become normal. That is something completely outside of my conceptual world back then, that we would enter these consequences collectively thinking that everything is A Ok and normal.

This is Jared Diamond's Easter Island observation of how each generation sees the dwindling forests and considers it normal until the last tree stands.
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Re: what awaits humanity this century?

Postby Lore » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 22:16:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'B')y timing do you mean dying prematurely 8) :o


No, the catch is being able to know the minute before it happens, then stand next to the hole in a position so that you can fall in and trip the burial mechanism. Still a few bugs to work out :P
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Re: what awaits humanity this century?

Postby Ibon » Mon 23 Mar 2015, 22:22:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('onlooker', 'B')y timing do you mean dying prematurely 8) :o


No, the catch is being able to know the minute before it happens, then stand next to the hole in a position so that you can fall in and trip the burial mechanism. Still a few bugs to work out :P


Saturnid moths emerge from their pupae with no mouth parts. Their lives as adults is to find a mate and breed and the challenge is to do this before their energy reserves, that were established when they took the last bite of leaf as caterpillars, runs out.

Like salmon, they don't have an issue with timing.
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Re: what awaits humanity this century?

Postby americandream » Tue 24 Mar 2015, 01:41:15

Globalising capitalist levels of consumerism and toxicity? Go figure.
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