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The British mathematician and Quaker Lewis Fry Richardson studied war as a mathematical phenomenon
Statistics of Deadly Quarrels (1950)
http://bit-player.org/wp-content/extras ... es-SDQ.pdfHe found that as many people die from one homicide as from a war with one million dead ,
there is just one million homicide and one war .
from his calculation the spread follows the log of 10 rule ,like many other natural phenomenon like the Decibels or Richter scales
a magnitude 1 is one casualty , a magnitude 3 is one thousand , a magnitude 7 is ten millions
there is as many gang related death in Shanghai as in New York per population
like the Earthquakes , prediction is not possible but probabilities tell us we are about due for a magnitude 8
but then again Tokyo is due for a really big Earth-shaker and millions of people live there , so why worry
warfare hardly dent the demographics