[fletch961]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ome on, people. Gas here is already at $6 (euro 1.25 per liter) and everybody keep driving alone like always. People don't even TALK about it. They don't give a blink over price at $6.

[I_Like_Plants]

I can see people setting up informal car-sharing networks, people who have workplaces or living places that are near each other etc.

My SUV gets 25MPG and I do 7k miles a year, I'm still going to sell the sucker though.

The original poster makes a good point though, people-miles per gallon really shoot up when you carry more than one person per car.

[Barbara]

My city (Rome, Italy) has the most amazing car rate in the world (990 cars per 1000 inhabitants!!!) So I am really surprised to see a lot of people going by bycicle these days. Most of them are immigrants or students or German tourists , but anyway it's not usual... maybe something is changing.

[CARVER]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fletch961', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ome on, people. Gas here is already at $6 (euro 1.25 per liter) and everybody keep driving alone like always. People don't even TALK about it. They don't give a blink over price at $6.

[fletch961]

Carver
One way would be to find the number of barrel a country cunsumes on a per capita basis annually(about 25.4 in US, about 11.2 in UK). Every dollar rise in only would cost an american about $25.40. Multiply that by the number of people in a family. (The increase in oil prices used by business gets passed on in the form of higher consumer prices, the government eventually passes its additional costs on in the form of higher taxes.)

Every $10 increase in oil takes about $1000 out of an American family's pocket annually.

[turmoil]

lets say that for 1 average US car, it requires a refill 2 or 3 times a month and has an avg tank size of 21 gallons (just a semi-educated guess).

at $1.00/gal

$1 x 2 x 21 = $42
$1 x 3 x 21 = $63

at $3.00/gal

$3 x 2 x 21 = $126
$3 x 3 x 21 = $189

at $5.00/gal

$5 x 2 x 21 = $210
$5 x 3 x 21 = $315

at $10.00/gal

$10 x 2 x 21 = $420
$10 x 3 x 21 = $630

If you check different monthly incomes we begin to see the percentage of monthly income just going to gas for 1 car. At varying percentages, priorities shift.

anyway, thats how i look at it.

[matt21811]

21 Gallons is a massive overestimate of average tank size.

It even sounds a little large for average SUV tank size.

Also, most people dont empty the tank completely before they fill it.

My car has an 11 Gallon tank and I fill it up 2 times a month. I drive it to work 28 miles return. 1 passanger. I pay about $3.30 a gallon.

Thats 9gal * $3.3 *2 = $60 a month

Even at $10 a gal, it is still very worthwhile for me to drive to work.

I see no reason why Americans cant buy economical cars.

[turmoil]

thanks for your post matt.

google search for: suv "gas tank" size gallons

you find an interesting world of large gas tanks.
One dated but relevant Article
Forum discussion

i realize that people don't use up a whole tank before refilling, but if you figure the avg US car uses about 32-42 gallons (the better part of a barrel or more) a month, then you can estimate cost. (not that i think this is a perfect way to figure out how much gas people use and what they will spend on it).

But my goal was to show how it adds up (er, multiplies) for cars with ~21 gallon tanks at different prices, not to solve the world's problems (which would be fairly easy if the human species was slightly different) and get people to drive more efficient cars. i have no doubt that people will drive fuel efficient cars when squeezed hard enough. But it seems to me (getting back to the thread at hand) that $10/gal would definitely cause growing costs of food, utilities, etc to compete with high gas costs for everyone.

[pup55]

I agree with Fletch. The pain point comes way below $10 in the US.

I would further add the following:

Savings Rate

Based on this, the suburban household with the $70000 income only saves $560 per year at the current time. Any additional expenses beyond that means they have to either cut back on something else, or further max out their credit cards. so, based on the above calculations, anywhere over $.30 per gallon is getting into painful, and at .66 per gallon, the increase is starting to show up in the $100 per month range, which is detectable in the budget of the average suburban family.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eople arn't going to just quit their jobs because gas has reached $5 a gallon.

[UncoveringTruths]

pup55 wrote
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'r')ight up to the government themselves.

[RiverRat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'I') agree with Fletch. The pain point comes way below $10 in the US.

I would further add the following:

Savings Rate

Based on this, the suburban household with the $70000 income only saves $560 per year at the current time.... snip

[strider3700]

There is no way industry could survive $10 fuel. I Could survive $10 gas, thats only double what I currently pay and I'm doing reasonably well, but trucking is already being crushed.

I work in the logging industry so I'll mention it. Right now housing is booming, they can't get enough wood and concrete and thats partially driving prices up. But the price of shipping that wood around is also greatly increasing. Right now we have logging trucks that are not running simply because they lose money due to fuel costs. They had margins of 1 or 2% just to get the contracts and now they are better off to sit at home out of work. I hear the semi trucks running the highways are in the same situation, competition forced them right to the line and now they're screwed.

the lumber market will correct but it will take a year or so for the majority of contracts to be finished. At that time they can be renegotiated and the costs should be considerably higher. If fuel keeps climbing the demand for wood may drop due to the price increases.

[pup55]

Defense Energy Support Center

The Center purchases more light refined petroleum product than any other single organization or company in the world. With a $3.5 billion annual budget, DESC procures nearly 110 million barrels of petroleum products each year. That’s enough fuel for 1,000 cars to drive around the world 4,620 times—or 115.5 trillion miles. products. The Center manages jet fuels, aviation gasoline, automotive gasoline, heating oils, power generation, naval propulsion fuels, lubricants, natural gas and coal.

Global Security

They will only admit to about 110 million barrels per year. Of course, the actual amount is probably classified.

Other DOD documents indicate that in 2002, before the shooting started, they budgeted about $5 billion per year for fuel.

DOD fuel budget

which at $35 per barrel, the budgeted amount, makes it closer to 142 million barrels.

So at a rate of 1.8 mbo/d exports from Iraq, that makes the EROEI for the Iraq invasion about 5:1, which is not quite as good as oil sands.

[UncoveringTruths]

pup55,

Thanks

Now if we apply 142 mb at the current price of $60 barrel that equals 8.5 billion. An increase of 3.5 billion! Ouch

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f I ran the numbers, I would say our household has a savings rate (as defined in the article) of about 4% but what about the 401k or IRA contributions??

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow if we apply 142 mb at the current price of $60 barrel that equals 8.5 billion. An increase of 3.5 billion! Ouch

[Rochester]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o, people will get laid off of their jobs just because gas has reached $5 per gallon. Reducing the number of vehicles on the road to 1/7 of the current level, as suggested above means a 6/7 reduction in disposable stuff, like tire usage, repairs, oil changes, etc. but in the long run, a 6/7 reduction in vehicle purchases. This trickles up stream: Fewer cars, fewer car salesmen, fewer people at the DMV, fewer loan officers at the bank, fewer people at the insurance company, less road construction and maintenance, less concrete and asphalt, less steel and rubber and chemicals. Before you know it, it goes through the whole economy, banking, financial, communications, right up to the government themselves.

[pup55]

Actually, Rochester, you are quite right. New industry definitely leads to new opportunities for those who can adapt.

The trick will be the transition, though. Especially for the slow-adapters.

[fletch961]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')efense Energy Support Center

The Center purchases more light refined petroleum product than any other single organization or company in the world. With a $3.5 billion annual budget, DESC procures nearly 110 million barrels of petroleum products each year. That’s enough fuel for 1,000 cars to drive around the world 4,620 times—or 115.5 trillion miles. products. The Center manages jet fuels, aviation gasoline, automotive gasoline, heating oils, power generation, naval propulsion fuels, lubricants, natural gas and coal.