by DesuMaiden » Fri 06 Mar 2015, 15:50:42
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '
')might have been a misquote but I suspect the point he is making is that the shale plays are somewhat unique in that once price rises you can accelerate development very quickly, much moreso than a lot of the conventional plays. They are more vulnerable to dropping price due to high costs but they are also able to recover very quickly when the price rises.
And when the price of oil goes up by too much, shale oil production is also cut because overall demand of oil is destroyed when the price of oil is too high. Demand vs supply economics are funny because the supply side (not the demand side) always wins in the end. That's because no matter how much demand there is for a certain product, if there isn't enough supply, then the demand will be cut down by extreme price increases.
And when the price of oil goes up beyond a certain level than obviously the economy suffers. While not all economic recessions are tied with price spikes in oil, all price spikes in oil have caused economic recessions.
The bumpy plateau has been described by many peak oil researchers, and it is actually happening right now. The price of oil goes up until it becomes too high to be affordable to most people. And this causes the demand for oil to go down, which also brings down the price. But as soon as the price goes down to a sufficient level, this will fuel more demand for oil, which will only drive up the price of oil again because there is finite amount of oil left. Nothing can change that. This will shut down the economy again because of the rising energy costs and the finiteness of oil.
And this bumpy plateau lasts for a decade or two until we fall off of the cliff. That is when the price of oil spikes again, and no one can afford to buy that oil. And everything will just shut down, which will cause the collapse of industrial civilization.
We are right on the bumpy plateau of oil prices meaning oil prices will keep on going up and down. The collapse is only a decade or two away. That is when oil becomes unaffordable to virtually everyone, and the economy, agriculture and everything will just shut down.
History repeats itself. Just everytime with different characters and players.